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Research Article

Transmission Dynamics of Mpox in Peru During the 2022 Outbreak

M. Gabriela Soto-Cabezas Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;

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Adrián Vásquez-Mejía Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;

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Martha Calderón Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;

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Mary Reyes-Vega Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;
Emerge, Emerging Diseases and Climate Change Research Unit, School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, San Martin de Porres, Peru

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Yrene I. Blancas-Blas Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;

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Anderson N. Soriano-Moreno Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;
Emerge, Emerging Diseases and Climate Change Research Unit, School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, San Martin de Porres, Peru

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María A. Vargas Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;

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Kely R. Meza Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;

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Jorge R. Uchuya Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;

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Diego Castro-Garro Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;

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Sergio Luque-Mamani Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;

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Oswaldo G. E. Espinoza-Hurtado Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;

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Cesar V. Munayco Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú;
Emerge, Emerging Diseases and Climate Change Research Unit, School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, San Martin de Porres, Peru

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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.24-0361
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Ahead of Print
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In July 2022, mpox was declared an international public health emergency because of a surge in cases across Europe and America. This study assessed transmission dynamics and factors associated with hospitalization during the 2022 mpox outbreak in Peru. We performed a cross-sectional study using the Surveillance System of the National Center of Epidemiology, Prevention, and Disease Control (CDC-Peru) data. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R0), effective reproduction number (Rt), and the duration of the outbreak phases. We conducted mathematical modeling of the outbreak and estimated the serial interval. Additionally, we used Poisson regression with robust variance to identify hospitalization factors, using prevalence ratio. Between July and December 2022, 3,677 confirmed cases (96.3% male, mean age 32.6 years) were reported to the CDC-Peru. Of these, 75.0% were men who have sex with men (MSM), 55.6% had HIV infection, and 5.2% were hospitalized. The R0 was 2.37, with an exponential growth phase lasting 7 weeks, and Rt dropped to non-epidemic levels after 14 weeks. The incubation period and recovery period were estimated to be 6 days and 22 days, respectively. The serial interval was 9.3 days. HIV infection increased hospitalization risk. The 2022 mpox outbreak in Peru was characterized by primarily affecting a young MSM population, with a significant proportion being people living with HIV. Hospitalization was associated with HIV coinfection. This outbreak showed exponential growth during the first 7 weeks, followed by a marked deceleration of transmission.

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Author Notes

Financial support: This project received funding from the National Center of Epidemiology, Prevention, and Disease Control (CDC-Peru). Reyes-Vega y Soriano-Moreno are supported by the Emerge: Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Research Training Grant from the Fogarty International Center of the US National Institutes of Health (Grant No. 2D43TW007393-16). The funders had no involvement in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or manuscript preparation.

Disclosures: This work was supported by the National Center of Epidemiology, Prevention, and Disease Control (CDC-Peru). The funder had no role in the conceptualization of the paper or in the material presented. Most authors work at CDC-Peru. However, the opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policy or official position of the institutions where the authors work. The study was approved by the ethics committee on research at the National Institute of Health of Peru (INS) (#OE-042-22–Letter No. 2442-2022-OGITT/INS) and has approval from CDC-Peru (file No. 20230000535).

Current contact information: M. Gabriela Soto-Cabezas, Adrián Vásquez-Mejía, Martha Calderón, Mary Reyes-Vega, Yrene I. Blancas-Blas, Anderson N. Soriano-Moreno, María A. Vargas Huapaya, Kely R. Meza, Jorge R. Uchuya, Diego Castro-Garro, Sergio Luque-Mamani, Oswaldo G. E. Espinoza-Hurtado, and Cesar V. Munayco, Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Lima, Perú, E-mails: msoto@minsa.gob.pe, apvasquez.md@gmail.com, mcalderon@dge.gob.pe, mreyes@dge.gob.pe, yblancas@dge.gob.pe, anderson.soriano@upch.pe, mvargas@dge.gob.pe, kelymeza@gmail.com, juchuya@dge.gob.pe, castrogda@gmail.com, serluquem@gmail.com, ozzespinoza27@gmail.com, and cmunayco@minsa.gob.pe.

Address correspondence to M. Gabriela Soto-Cabezas, Ministerio de Salud, Calle Daniel Olaechea 199, Jesús María 15072, Lima, Peru. E-mail: msoto@minsa.gob.pe
Copyright:
© American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 2025
Received:
29 May 2024
|
Accepted:
31 Jan 2025
|
Published Online:
20 May 2025
Cover The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Print ISSN:
0002-9637
Online ISSN:
1476-1645
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