Analysis of Severe and Relapse Risks of Imported Malaria in Five Provinces of China

Chen Gao Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China;

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Chris Cotter University of California, San Francisco, California;
Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden;

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Tao Zhang Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, China;

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Shen-Ning Lu National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China;
WHO Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, China;
Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Ministry of Health, Shanghai, China;
National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology, Shanghai, China;
School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China

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Hong-Zheng Lu Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China;

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Hong Su Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China;

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Shi-Zhu Li National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China;
WHO Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, China;
Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Ministry of Health, Shanghai, China;
National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology, Shanghai, China;
School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China

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Duo-Quan Wang Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China;
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China;
WHO Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, China;
Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Ministry of Health, Shanghai, China;
National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology, Shanghai, China;
School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China

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Although China has achieved malaria elimination certification, the risk of malaria transmission reintroduction due to imported malaria remains. We analyzed data on imported malaria cases collected from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2021, using multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify the factors associated with severe and relapsing malaria. The odds of severe malaria were around 4-fold greater for patients who were initially diagnosed with a nonmalarial illness than for patients initially diagnosed with malaria. The risk of relapse from Plasmodium vivax or Plasmodium ovale varied depending on the regions of Africa where patients resided. Patients residing in western and southern Africa (compared with Central Africa) had a lower relative risk of relapse. In addition, treatment with primaquine provided protection against malaria relapse. Improving the timeliness of treatment of malaria patients could help reduce the severity of illness, and use of primaquine can mitigate the risk of relapse after treatment.

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Author Notes

Financial support: The research is supported by a China-Africa cooperation project on malaria control under project no. 2020-C4-0002-3 and a program of the Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research (no. 131031104000160004) and by a UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) Small Grant (WHO reference no. 2021/1104003-0).

Disclosures: No specific ethical approval was needed for this study as it represents a secondary analysis of existing data. Individual observations were anonymized prior to analysis. Data were used with the permission of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in five provinces.

Current contact information: Chen Gao, Hong-Zheng Lu, and Hong Su, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China, E-mails: 2345010453@stu.ahmu.edu.cn, luhongzheng0524@163.com, and suhong5151@sina.com. Chris Cotter, University of California, San Francisco, CA, and Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, E-mail: chris.cotter@ucsf.edu. Tao Zhang, Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, China, E-mail: ahcdczt@126.com. Shen-Ning Lu, Shi-Zhu Li, and Duo-Quan Wang, School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China, E-mails: lusn@nipd.chinacdc.cn, lisz@chinacdc.cn and wangdq@nipd.chinacdc.cn. Shi-Zhu Li and Duo-Quan Wang, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China. WHO Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, China. Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Ministry of Health, Shanghai, China. National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology, Shanghai, China. E-mails: lisz@chinacdc.cn and wangdq@nipd.chinacdc.cn.

Address correspondence to Duo-Quan Wang, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China. E-mail: wangdq@nipd.chinacdc.cn
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