Association between Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Incidence and Ambient Temperature

Jimin Sun State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;
Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China

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Liang Lu State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;

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Jun Yang State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;

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Keke Liu State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;

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Haixia Wu State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;

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Qiyong Liu State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China;

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Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is emerging in China. To explore the lagged effects and nonlinear association between temperature and SFTS, we collected data on ambient temperature and SFTS cases and analyzed the data using a distributed lag nonlinear model. A total of 1,933 SFTS cases were reported in the study area from 2011 to 2015. Our study revealed a nonlinear relationship between weekly temperature and SFTS. The exposure–response curve was an approximately reversed U-shaped peak at 23°C. High temperatures had acute and short-term effects, whereas low temperatures had persistent and long-term effects. The effects of lower temperatures (1.62°C and 6.97°C) could last 24 weeks, but the effect of 29.30°C was not significant at lag 8 weeks. Our results provide information to better understand the effect of temperature variation on SFTS and may have policy implications for disease prevention and control.

Author Notes

Address correspondence to Qiyong Liu, State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China. E-mail: liuqiyong@icdc.cn

Financial support: The study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Nos. 2016YFC1200802 and 2017FY101202) and the medical research program of Zhejiang Province (Nos. 2017KY291 and 2018KY338).

Authors’ addresses: Jimin Sun, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China, E-mail: jmsun@cdc.zj.cn. Liang Lu, Jun Yang, Keke Liu, Haixia Wu, and Qiyong Liu, State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China, E-mails: luliang@icdc.cn, smart_yjun@163.com, kekegood66@126.com, wuhaixia@icdc.cn, and liuqiyong@icdc.cn.

These authors contributed equally to this work.

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