Estimating the Risk of Domestic Water Source Contamination Following Precipitation Events

Ian F. Eisenhauer School of Medicine, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Centro de Desarrollo Humano, Trifinio, Guatemala; Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado

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Christopher M. Hoover School of Medicine, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Centro de Desarrollo Humano, Trifinio, Guatemala; Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado

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Justin V. Remais School of Medicine, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Centro de Desarrollo Humano, Trifinio, Guatemala; Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado

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Andrew Monaghan School of Medicine, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Centro de Desarrollo Humano, Trifinio, Guatemala; Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado

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Marco Celada School of Medicine, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Centro de Desarrollo Humano, Trifinio, Guatemala; Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado

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Elizabeth J. Carlton School of Medicine, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Centro de Desarrollo Humano, Trifinio, Guatemala; Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado

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Climate change is expected to increase precipitation extremes, threatening water quality. In low resource settings, it is unclear which water sources are most vulnerable to contamination following rainfall events. We evaluated the relationship between rainfall and drinking water quality in southwest Guatemala where heavy rainfall is frequent and access to safe water is limited. We surveyed 59 shallow household wells, measured precipitation, and calculated simple hydrological variables. We compared Escherichia coli concentration at wells where recent rainfall had occurred versus had not occurred, and evaluated variability in the association between rainfall and E. coli concentration under different conditions using interaction models. Rainfall in the past 24 hours was associated with greater E. coli concentrations, with the strongest association between rainfall and fecal contamination at wells where pigs were nearby. Because of the small sample size, these findings should be considered preliminary, but provide a model to evaluate vulnerability to climate change.

Author Notes

* Address correspondence to Elizabeth J. Carlton, Colorado School of Public Health, 13001 E, 17th Place, B119, Aurora, CO 80045. E-mail: elizabeth.carlton@ucdenver.edu

Financial support: This project was supported by an ASTMH Benjamin H. Kean Travel Fellowship in Tropical Medicine, a Rotary Student Scholarship, as well as the Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, with funding from the Fundacion para la Salud Integral de los Guatematecos. Justin V. Remais and Christopher M. Hoover were supported by the Division of Earth Sciences of the National Science Foundation under grant no. 1360330, by the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (K01AI091864), and by award R01TW010286 from the National Institutes of Health/National Science Foundation Ecology of Infectious Disease program funded by the Fogarty International Center. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. This publication is a contribution of the University of Colorado Consortium for Climate Change and Health.

Authors' addresses: Ian F. Eisenhauer, School of Medicine, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, E-mail: ian.eisenhauer@ucdenver.edu. Christopher M. Hoover and Justin V. Remais, Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, E-mails: choover@berkeley.edu and jvr@berkeley.edu. Andrew Monaghan, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, E-mail: monaghan@ucar.edu. Marco Celada, Centro de Desarrollo Humano, Trifinio, Guatemala and Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, E-mail: marco.celada@ucdenver.edu. Elizabeth J. Carlton, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, E-mail: elizabeth.carlton@ucdenver.edu.

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