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Wimberly MC, Lamsal A, Giacomo P, Chuang T, 2014. Regional variation of climatic influences on West Nile virus outbreaks in the United States. Am J Trop Med Hyg 91: 677–684.
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Gardner AM, Hamer GL, Hines AM, Christina M, Walker ED, Ruiz MO, Newman CM, 2012. Weather variability affects abundance of larval Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) in storm water catch basins in suburban Chicago. J Med Entomol 49: 270–276.
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Ruiz MO, Chaves LF, Hamer GL, Sun T, Brown WM, Walker ED, Haramis L, Goldberg TL, Kitron UD, 2010. Local impact of temperature and precipitation on West Nile virus infection in Culex species mosquitoes in northeast Illinois, USA. Parasit Vectors 3: 1–16.
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Meteorological Conditions Associated with Increased Incidence of West Nile Virus Disease in the United States, 2004–2012
Micah B. Hahn
Micah B. Hahn
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
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Andrew J. Monaghan
Andrew J. Monaghan
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
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Mary H. Hayden
Mary H. Hayden
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
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Rebecca J. Eisen
Rebecca J. Eisen
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
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Mark J. Delorey
Mark J. Delorey
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
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Nicole P. Lindsey
Nicole P. Lindsey
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
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Roger S. Nasci
Roger S. Nasci
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
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Marc Fischer
Marc Fischer
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
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West Nile virus (WNV) is a leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Annual seasonal outbreaks vary in size and location. Predicting where and when higher than normal WNV transmission will occur can help direct limited public health resources. We developed models for the contiguous United States to identify meteorological anomalies associated with above average incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease from 2004 to 2012. We used county-level WNV data reported to ArboNET and meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. As a result of geographic differences in WNV transmission, we divided the United States into East and West, and 10 climate regions. Above average annual temperature was associated with increased likelihood of higher than normal WNV disease incidence, nationally and in most regions. Lower than average annual total precipitation was associated with higher disease incidence in the eastern United States, but the opposite was true in most western regions. Although multiple factors influence WNV transmission, these findings show that anomalies in temperature and precipitation are associated with above average WNV disease incidence. Readily accessible meteorological data may be used to develop predictive models to forecast geographic areas with elevated WNV disease risk before the coming season.
Author Notes
Financial support: This work was funded by the Climate and Health Program of the National Center for Environmental Health, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
Authors' addresses: Micah B. Hahn, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, and Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO, E-mails: mhahn@ucar.edu or mhahn@cdc.gov. Andrew J. Monaghan and Mary H. Hayden, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, E-mails: monaghan@ucar.edu and mhayden@ucar.edu. Rebecca J. Eisen, Mark J. Delorey, Nicole P. Lindsey, Roger S. Nasci, and Marc Fischer, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO, E-mails: rjeisen@cdc.gov, mdelorey@cdc.gov, nplindsey@cdc.gov, rnasci@cdc.gov, and mfischer@cdc.gov.
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013. West Nile Virus Statistics and Maps. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/westnile/statsMaps/. Accessed April 3, 2014.
-
2.
Mostashari F, Bunning ML, Kitsutani PT, Singer DA, Nash D, Cooper MJ, Katz N, Liljebjelke KA, Biggerstaff BJ, Fine AD, Layton MC, Mullin SM, Johnson AJ, Martin DA, Hayes EB, Campbell GL, 2001. Epidemic West Nile encephalitis, New York, 1999: results of a household-based seroepidemiological survey. Lancet 358: 261–264.
-
3.
Busch MP, Wright DJ, Custer B, Tobler LH, Stramer SL, Kleinman SH, Prince HE, Bianco C, Foster G, Petersen LR, Nemo G, Glynn SA, 2006. West Nile virus infections projected from blood donor screening data, 2003. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 395–402.
-
4.
Zou S, Foster GA, Dodd RY, Petersen LR, Stramer SL, 2010. West Nile fever characteristics among viremic persons Identified through blood donor screening. J Infect Dis 202: 1354–1361.
-
5.
Carson PJ, Borchardt SM, Custer B, Prince HE, Dunn-Williams J, Winkelman V, Tobler L, Biggerstaff BJ, Lanciotti R, Petersen LR, Busch MP, 2012. Neuroinvasive disease and West Nile virus infection, North Dakota, USA, 1999–2008. Emerg Infect Dis 18: 684–686.
-
6.
Nash D, Mostashari F, Fine A, Miller J, O'Leary D, Murray K, Huang A, Rosenberg A, Greenberg A, Sherman M, Wong S, Layton M, 2001. The outbreak of West Nile virus infection in the New York City area in 1999. N Engl J Med 344: 1807–1814.
-
7.
Lindsey NP, Staples JE, Lehman J, Fischer M, 2010. Surveillance for human West Nile Virus disease—United States, 1999–2008. MMWR Surveill Summ 59: 1–17.
-
8.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013. West Nile virus and other arboviral diseases—United States, 2012. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 62: 513–517.
-
9.
Lindsey NP, Staples JE, Delorey MJ, Fischer M, 2014. Lack of evidence of increased West Nile virus disease severity in the United States in 2012. Am J Trop Med Hyg 90: 163–168.
-
10.
Beasley DWC, 2011. Vaccines and immunotherapeutics for the prevention and treatment of infections with West Nile virus. Immunotherapy 3: 269–285.
-
11.
Petersen LR, Brault AC, Nasci RS, 2013. West Nile virus: review of the literature. JAMA 310: 308–315.
-
12.
Komar N, 2003. West Nile virus: epidemiology and ecology in North America. Adv Virus Res 61: 185–234.
-
13.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2014. ArboNET Database. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/westnile/resourcepages/survResources.html. Accessed May 6, 2014.
-
14.
U.S. Census Bureau, 2014. U.S. Census Population Estimates. Available at: http://www.census.gov/popest/. Accessed May 6, 2014.
-
15.
Abdi H, 2007. Z-scores. Salkind N, ed. Encyclopedia of Measurement and Statistics. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
-
16.
Xia Y, Mitchell K, Ek M, Sheffield J, Cosgrove B, Wood E, Luo L, Alonge C, Wei H, Meng J, Livneh B, Lettenmaier D, Koren V, Duan Q, Mo K, Fan Y, Mocko D, 2012. Continental-scale water and energy flux analysis and validation for the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2): 1. Intercomparison and application of model products. J Geophys Res 117: D03109.
-
17.
Cosgrove B, Lohmann D, Mitchell K, Houser P, Wood E, Schaake J, Robock A, Marshall C, Sheffield J, Duan Q, Luo L, Higgins R, Pinker R, Tarpley J, Meng J, 2003. Real-time and retrospective forcing in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) project. J Geophys Res 108: 8842.
-
18.
Mitchell KE, Lohmann D, Houser PR, Wood EF, Schaake JC, Robock A, Cosgrove BA, Sheffield J, Duan Q, Luo L, Higgins RW, Pinker RT, Tarpley JD, Lettenmaier DP, Marshall CH, Entin JK, Pan M, Shi W, Koren V, Meng J, Ramsay BH, Bailey AA, 2004. The multi-institution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): Utilizing multiple GCIP products and partners in a continental distributed hydrological modeling system. J Geophys Res 109: D07S90.
-
19.
Cunfer G, 2005. On the Great Plains: Agriculture and Environment. College Station, TX: Texas A&M University Press, 304.
-
20.
Reisen W, 1993. The western encephalitis mosquito, Culex tarsalis. Wing Beats 4: 16.
-
21.
Faanes C, Lingle G, 1995. Biogeographic distribution of breeding birds. Breed. Birds Platte River Valley Nebraska. Available at: http://www.npwrc.usgs.gov/resource/birds/platte/distrib.htm. Accessed August 1, 2014.
-
22.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2014. NOAA Climate Regions. Available at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/maps/us-climate-regions.php. Accessed May 12, 2014.
-
23.
Twisk JW, 2003. Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis for Epidemiology: A Practical Guide. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 57–75.
-
24.
Fielding A, Bell J, 1997. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24: 38–49.
-
25.
Chung WM, Buseman CM, Joyner SN, Hughes SM, Fomby TB, Luby JP, Haley RW, 2013. The 2012 West Nile encephalitis epidemic in Dallas, Texas. JAMA 310: 297–307.
-
26.
Manore CA, Davis J, Christofferson RC, Wesson D, Hyman JM, Christopher N, 2014. Towards an early warning system for forecasting human West Nile virus incidence. PLoS Curr 6.
-
27.
Winters AM, Eisen RJ, Lozano-Fuentes S, Moore CG, Creek C, South D, 2009. Predictive spatial models for risk of West Nile virus exposure in eastern and western Colorado. Am J Trop Med Hyg 79: 581–590.
-
28.
Wimberly MC, Lamsal A, Giacomo P, Chuang T, 2014. Regional variation of climatic influences on West Nile virus outbreaks in the United States. Am J Trop Med Hyg 91: 677–684.
-
29.
Gardner AM, Hamer GL, Hines AM, Christina M, Walker ED, Ruiz MO, Newman CM, 2012. Weather variability affects abundance of larval Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) in storm water catch basins in suburban Chicago. J Med Entomol 49: 270–276.
-
30.
Chuang T, Knepper RG, Stanuszek WW, Edward D, Wilson ML, 2011. Temporal and spatial patterns of West Nile virus transmission in Saginaw County, Michigan, 2003–2006. J Med Entomol 48: 1047–1056.
-
31.
Chuang T, Hildreth MB, Vanroekel DL, Wimberly MC, 2011. Weather and land cover influences on mosquito populations in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. J Med Entomol 48: 669–679.
-
32.
Pecoraro HL, Day HL, Reineke R, Stevens N, Withey JC, John M, Meschke JS, Marzluff JM, 2007. Climatic and landscape correlates for potential West Nile virus mosquito vectors in the Seattle region. J Vector Ecol 32: 22–28.
-
33.
Reisen WK, Cayan D, Tyree M, Barker CM, Eldridge B, Dettinger M, 2008. Impact of climate variation on mosquito abundance in California. J Vector Ecol 33: 89–98.
-
34.
Nasci RS, Savage HM, White DJ, Miller JR, Cropp BC, Godsey MS, Kerst AJ, Bennett P, Gottfried K, Lanciotti RS, 2001. West Nile virus in overwintering Culex mosquitoes, New York City, 2000. Emerg Infect Dis 7: 742–744.
-
35.
Hawley W, Pumpuni C, Brady R, Craig G, 1989. Overwintering survival of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) eggs in Indiana. J Med Entomol 26: 122–129.
-
36.
Reisen WK, Fang Y, Martinez VM, 2006. Effects of temperature on the transmission of West Nile virus by Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae). J Med Entomol 43: 309–317.
-
37.
Ruiz MO, Chaves LF, Hamer GL, Sun T, Brown WM, Walker ED, Haramis L, Goldberg TL, Kitron UD, 2010. Local impact of temperature and precipitation on West Nile virus infection in Culex species mosquitoes in northeast Illinois, USA. Parasit Vectors 3: 1–16.
-
38.
Both C, Bouwhuis S, Lessells CM, Visser ME, 2006. Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature 441: 81–83.
-
39.
Marra PP, Francis CM, Mulvihill RS, Moore FR, 2005. The influence of climate on the timing and rate of spring bird migration. Oecologia 142: 307–315.
-
40.
Hamer GL, Walker ED, Brawn JD, Loss SR, Ruiz MO, Goldberg TL, Schotthoefer AM, Brown WM, Wheeler E, Kitron UD, 2008. Rapid amplification of West Nile virus: the role of hatch-year birds. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 8: 57–67.
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