Impact of Climate and Mosquito Vector Abundance on Sylvatic Arbovirus Circulation Dynamics in Senegal

Benjamin M. Althouse Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Kathryn A. Hanley Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Mawlouth Diallo Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Amadou A. Sall Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Yamar Ba Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Ousmane Faye Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Diawo Diallo Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Douglas M. Watts Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Scott C. Weaver Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Derek A. T. Cummings Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Sylvatic arboviruses have been isolated in Senegal over the last 50 years. The ecological drivers of the pattern and frequency of virus infection in these species are largely unknown. We used time series analysis and Bayesian hierarchical count modeling on a long-term arbovirus dataset to test associations between mosquito abundance, weather variables, and the frequency of isolation of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We found little correlation between mosquito abundance and viral isolations. Rainfall was a negative predictor of dengue virus (DENV) isolation but a positive predictor of Zika virus isolation. Temperature was a positive predictor of yellow fever virus (YFV) isolations but a negative predictor of DENV isolations. We found slight interference between viruses, with DENV negatively associated with concurrent YFV isolation and YFV negatively associated with concurrent isolation of chikungunya virus. These findings begin to characterize some of the ecological associations of sylvatic arboviruses with each other and climate and mosquito abundance.

Author Notes

* Address correspondence to Benjamin M. Althouse, Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501. E-mail: althouse@santafe.edu

Financial support: This work was funded by National Institutes of Health Grant AI069145 (to K.A.H., S.C.W., and D.A.T.C.) as well as US National Institutes of Health National Institute of General Medical Sciences Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) Grant 1U54GM088491-0109 (to D.A.T.C.). B.M.A. acknowledges National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Grant DGE-0707427 and the Omidyar Postdoctoral Fellowship Program. D.A.T.C. holds a Career Award at the Scientific Interface from the Burroughs Wellcome Fund.

Authors' addresses: Benjamin M. Althouse, Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, E-mail: althouse@santafe.edu. Kathryn A. Hanley, Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, E-mail: khanley@nmsu.edu. Mawlouth Diallo, Amadou A. Sall, Yamar Ba, Ousmane Faye, and Diawo Diallo, Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal, E-mails: diallo@pasteur.sn, asall@pasteur.sn, yba@pasteur.sn, fayeo@orange.sn, and diawod@yahoo.com. Douglas M. Watts, Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, TX, and Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, E-mail: dwatts2@utep.edu. Scott C. Weaver, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, E-mail: sweaver@utmb.edu. Derek A. T. Cummings, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, E-mail: dcumming@jhsph.edu.

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