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Incubation Periods of Mosquito-Borne Viral Infections: A Systematic Review
Kara E. Rudolph
Kara E. Rudolph
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
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Justin Lessler
Justin Lessler
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
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Rachael M. Moloney
Rachael M. Moloney
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
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Brittany Kmush
Brittany Kmush
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
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Derek A. T. Cummings
Derek A. T. Cummings
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
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Mosquito-borne viruses are a major public health threat, but their incubation periods are typically uncited, non-specific, and not based on data. We systematically review the published literature on six mosquito-borne viruses selected for their public health importance: chikungunya, dengue, Japanese encephalitis, Rift Valley fever, West Nile, and yellow fever viruses. For each, we identify the literature's consensus on the incubation period, evaluate the evidence for this consensus, and provide detailed estimates of the incubation period and distribution based on published experimental and observational data. We abstract original data as doubly interval-censored observations. Assuming a log-normal distribution, we estimate the median incubation period, dispersion, 25th and 75th percentiles by maximum likelihood. We include bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals for each estimate. For West Nile and yellow fever viruses, we also estimate the 5th and 95th percentiles of their incubation periods.
Author Notes
Authors' addresses: Kara E. Rudolph, Justin Lessler, Brittany Kmush, and Derek A. T. Cummings, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, E-mails: krudolph@jhsph.edu, jlessler@jhsph.edu, bkmush@jhsph.edu, and dcumming@jhsph.edu. Rachael M. Moloney, Center for Medical Technology Policy, Baltimore, MD, E-mail: rachael.moloney@gmail.com.
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EndNote
-
1.
World Health Organization, 2012. Dengue and severe dengue. Available at: www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs117/en. Accessed November 7, 2012.
-
2.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013. West Nile virus: final annual maps and data for 1999–2012. Available at: www.cdc.gov/westnile/statsMaps/finalMapsData/index.html. Accessed June 10, 2013.
-
3.
Lessler J, Brookmeyer R, Reich NG, Nelson KE, Cummings DA, Perl TM, 2010. Identifying the probable timing and setting of respiratory virus infections. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 31: 809–815.
-
4.
Lessler J, Brookmeyer R, Perl TM, 2007. An evaluation of classification rules based on date of symptom onset to identify health-care associated infections. Am J Epidemiol 166: 1220–1229.
-
5.
Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM, 2004. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101: 6146–6151.
-
6.
Lessler J, Reich NG, Brookmeyer R, Perl TM, Nelson KE, Cummings DA, 2009. Incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections: a systematic review. Lancet Infect Dis 9: 291–300.
-
7.
Reich NG, Perl TM, Cummings DA, Lessler J, 2011. Visualizing clinical evidence: citation networks for the incubation periods of respiratory viral infections. PLoS ONE 6: e19496.
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8.
Reich NG, Lessler J, Cummings DA, Brookmeyer R, 2009. Estimating incubation period distributions with coarse data. Stat Med 28: 2769–2784.
-
9.
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