Author:
- Introduction
- Materials and Methods
- Spearman test: univariate analysis of the link between local climatic variables and variations of the number of cases of leishmaniasis.
- Study of the interannual number of cases.
- Time series: multivariate analysis of the link between local climatic variables and the El Niño phenomenon, and with the monthly variations of the number of cases of leishmaniasis.
- Results
- Discussion
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1.
Kiladis G, Diaz HF, 1989. Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J Clim 2: 1069–1090.
-
2.
Ropelewski C, Halpert MS, 1987. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 15: 1606–1626.
-
3.
Chaves L, Pascual M, 2006. Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease. PLoS Med 3: e295.
-
4.
Gratz N, 1999. Emerging and resurging vector-borne diseases. Annu Rev Entomol 44: 51–75.
-
5.
Lainson R, Shaw JJ, 1978. Epidemiology and ecology of leishmaniasis in Latin America. Nature 273: 595–600.
-
6.
Ashford R, 1997. The leishmaniases as model zoonoses. Ann Trop Med Parasitol 91: 693–701.
-
7.
Chaves L, Hernandez MJ, 2004. Mathematical modelling of American cutaneous leishmaniasis: incidental hosts and threshold conditions for infection persistence. Acta Trop 92: 245–252.
-
8.
Feliciangeli M, Rabinovich J, 1998. Abundance of Lutzomyia ovallesi but not Lu. gomezi (Diptera: Psychodidae) correlated with cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in north-central Venezuela. Med Vet Entomol 12: 121–131.
-
9.
Salomon O, Wilson ML, Munstermann LE, Travi BL, 2004. Spatial and temporal patterns of phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a cutaneous leishmaniasis focus in northern Argentina. J Med Entomol 41: 33–39.
-
10.
Rabinovich J, Feliciangeli MD, 2004. Parameters of Leishmania braziliensis transmission by indoor Lutzomyia ovallesi in Venezuela. Am J Trop Med Hyg 70: 373–382.
-
11.
Franke CR, Ziller M, Staubach C, Latif M, 2002. Impact of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation on visceral leishmaniasis, Brazil. Emerg Infect Dis 8: 914–917.
-
12.
Nacher M, Couppie P, Carme B, Clyti E, Sainte Marie D, Guibert P, Pradinaud R, 2002. Influence of meteorological parameters on the clinical presentation of cutaneous leishmaniasis in French Guiana and on the efficacy of pentamidine treatment of the disease. Ann Trop Med Parasitol 96: 773–780.
-
13.
Aceituno P, 1988. On the functioning of the Southern Oscillation in the South American sector. Part I: Surface climate. Mon Weather Rev 116: 505–524.
-
14.
Nelson BK, 1998. Statistical methodology: V. Time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Acad Emerg Med 5: 739–744.
-
15.
Cardenas R, Sandoval CM, Rodriguez-Morales AJ, Franco-Paredes C, 2006. Impact of climate variability in the occurrence of leishmaniasis in northeastern Colombia. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75: 273–277.
-
16.
Galvez R, Descalzo MA, Miro G, Jimenez MI, Martin O, Dos Santos-Brandao F, Guerrero I, Cubero E, Molina R, 2010. Seasonal trends and spatial relations between environmental/meteorological factors and leishmaniosis sand fly vector abundances in Central Spain. Acta Trop 115: 95–102.
-
17.
Quintana M, Salomon OD, De Grosso MS, 2010. Distribution of Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a primary forest-crop interface, Salta, Argentina. J Med Entomol 47: 1003–1010.
-
18.
Rotureau B, Catzeflis F, Carme B, 2006. Absence of Leishmania in Guianan bats. Am J Trop Med Hyg 74: 318–321.
-
19.
Box G, Jenkins G, 1970. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. San Francisco, CA: Holden-Day.
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Climate and Leishmaniasis in French Guiana
Amaury Roger
Amaury Roger
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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Mathieu Nacher
Mathieu Nacher
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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Matthieu Hanf
Matthieu Hanf
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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Anne Sophie Drogoul
Anne Sophie Drogoul
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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Antoine Adenis
Antoine Adenis
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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Celia Basurko
Celia Basurko
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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Julie Dufour
Julie Dufour
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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Dominique Sainte Marie
Dominique Sainte Marie
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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Denis Blanchet
Denis Blanchet
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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Stephane Simon
Stephane Simon
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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Bernard Carme
Bernard Carme
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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Pierre Couppié
Pierre Couppié
Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane CIC-EC CIE 802, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Department of Dermatology, Cayenne General Hospital, Cayenne, French Guiana; Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; Equipe EPaT EA3593 Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Universite, Antilles, Guyane
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To study the link between climatic variables and the incidence of leishmaniasis a study was conducted in Cayenne, French Guiana. Patients infected between January 1994 and December 2010. Meteorological data were studied in relation to the incidence of leishmaniasis using an ARIMA model. In the final model, the infections were negatively correlated with rainfall (with a 2-month lag) and with the number of days with rainfall > 50 mm (lags of 4 and 7 months). The variables that were positively correlated were temperature and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index with lags of 8 and 4 months, respectively. Significantly greater correlations were observed in March for rainfall and in November for the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index. Climate thus seems to be a non-negligible explanatory variable for the fluctuations of leishmaniasis. A decrease in rainfall is linked to increased cases 2 months later. This easily perceptible point could lead to an interesting prevention message.
Author Notes
Authors' addresses: Amaury Roger, Mathieu Nacher, Bernard Carme, and Celia Basurko, Centre d'Investigation Clinique, Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane (CIE INSERM 802), Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne, Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mails: amaury.roger@ch-cayenne.fr, mathieu.nacher@ch-cayenne.fr, bernard.carme@ch-cayenne.fr, and c.basurko@free.fr. Matthieu Hanf, Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne, Centre d'Investigation Clinique, Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane (CIC EC CIE 802), Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mail: matthieu@hanf.fr. Anne Sophie Drogoul, Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Laboratoire Polyvalent, Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mail: asdrogoul@pasteur-cayenne.fr. Antoine Adenis, Cayenne General Hospital, Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane (CIC-EC INSERM CIE 802), Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mail: antoine.adenis@ch-cayenne.fr. Julie Dufour, Dominique Sainte Marie, and Pierre Couppié, Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne, Service de Dermatologie Vénéréologie, Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mails: julie.dufour@ch-cayenne.fr, dominique.sainte-marie@ch-cayenne.fr, and couppie.pierre@ch-cayenne.fr. Denis Blanchet, Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne, Laboratoire Hospitalo Universitaire de Parasitologie Mycologie, Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mail: denis.blanchet@ch-cayenne.fr. Stephane Simon, Universite des Antilles et de la Guyane, Equipe EA 3593, Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mail: stephane.simon@guyane.univ-ag.fr.
- Introduction
- Materials and Methods
- Spearman test: univariate analysis of the link between local climatic variables and variations of the number of cases of leishmaniasis.
- Study of the interannual number of cases.
- Time series: multivariate analysis of the link between local climatic variables and the El Niño phenomenon, and with the monthly variations of the number of cases of leishmaniasis.
- Results
- Discussion
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1.
Kiladis G, Diaz HF, 1989. Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J Clim 2: 1069–1090.
-
2.
Ropelewski C, Halpert MS, 1987. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 15: 1606–1626.
-
3.
Chaves L, Pascual M, 2006. Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease. PLoS Med 3: e295.
-
4.
Gratz N, 1999. Emerging and resurging vector-borne diseases. Annu Rev Entomol 44: 51–75.
-
5.
Lainson R, Shaw JJ, 1978. Epidemiology and ecology of leishmaniasis in Latin America. Nature 273: 595–600.
-
6.
Ashford R, 1997. The leishmaniases as model zoonoses. Ann Trop Med Parasitol 91: 693–701.
-
7.
Chaves L, Hernandez MJ, 2004. Mathematical modelling of American cutaneous leishmaniasis: incidental hosts and threshold conditions for infection persistence. Acta Trop 92: 245–252.
-
8.
Feliciangeli M, Rabinovich J, 1998. Abundance of Lutzomyia ovallesi but not Lu. gomezi (Diptera: Psychodidae) correlated with cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in north-central Venezuela. Med Vet Entomol 12: 121–131.
-
9.
Salomon O, Wilson ML, Munstermann LE, Travi BL, 2004. Spatial and temporal patterns of phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a cutaneous leishmaniasis focus in northern Argentina. J Med Entomol 41: 33–39.
-
10.
Rabinovich J, Feliciangeli MD, 2004. Parameters of Leishmania braziliensis transmission by indoor Lutzomyia ovallesi in Venezuela. Am J Trop Med Hyg 70: 373–382.
-
11.
Franke CR, Ziller M, Staubach C, Latif M, 2002. Impact of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation on visceral leishmaniasis, Brazil. Emerg Infect Dis 8: 914–917.
-
12.
Nacher M, Couppie P, Carme B, Clyti E, Sainte Marie D, Guibert P, Pradinaud R, 2002. Influence of meteorological parameters on the clinical presentation of cutaneous leishmaniasis in French Guiana and on the efficacy of pentamidine treatment of the disease. Ann Trop Med Parasitol 96: 773–780.
-
13.
Aceituno P, 1988. On the functioning of the Southern Oscillation in the South American sector. Part I: Surface climate. Mon Weather Rev 116: 505–524.
-
14.
Nelson BK, 1998. Statistical methodology: V. Time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Acad Emerg Med 5: 739–744.
-
15.
Cardenas R, Sandoval CM, Rodriguez-Morales AJ, Franco-Paredes C, 2006. Impact of climate variability in the occurrence of leishmaniasis in northeastern Colombia. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75: 273–277.
-
16.
Galvez R, Descalzo MA, Miro G, Jimenez MI, Martin O, Dos Santos-Brandao F, Guerrero I, Cubero E, Molina R, 2010. Seasonal trends and spatial relations between environmental/meteorological factors and leishmaniosis sand fly vector abundances in Central Spain. Acta Trop 115: 95–102.
-
17.
Quintana M, Salomon OD, De Grosso MS, 2010. Distribution of Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a primary forest-crop interface, Salta, Argentina. J Med Entomol 47: 1003–1010.
-
18.
Rotureau B, Catzeflis F, Carme B, 2006. Absence of Leishmania in Guianan bats. Am J Trop Med Hyg 74: 318–321.
-
19.
Box G, Jenkins G, 1970. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. San Francisco, CA: Holden-Day.
| Past two years | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 32 | 32 | 6 |
| Full Text Views | 371 | 107 | 0 |
| PDF Downloads | 101 | 20 | 0 |