- Introduction
- Materials and Methods
- Spearman test: univariate analysis of the link between local climatic variables and variations of the number of cases of leishmaniasis.
- Study of the interannual number of cases.
- Time series: multivariate analysis of the link between local climatic variables and the El Niño phenomenon, and with the monthly variations of the number of cases of leishmaniasis.
- Results
- Discussion
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Climate and Leishmaniasis in French Guiana
To study the link between climatic variables and the incidence of leishmaniasis a study was conducted in Cayenne, French Guiana. Patients infected between January 1994 and December 2010. Meteorological data were studied in relation to the incidence of leishmaniasis using an ARIMA model. In the final model, the infections were negatively correlated with rainfall (with a 2-month lag) and with the number of days with rainfall > 50 mm (lags of 4 and 7 months). The variables that were positively correlated were temperature and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index with lags of 8 and 4 months, respectively. Significantly greater correlations were observed in March for rainfall and in November for the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index. Climate thus seems to be a non-negligible explanatory variable for the fluctuations of leishmaniasis. A decrease in rainfall is linked to increased cases 2 months later. This easily perceptible point could lead to an interesting prevention message.
Author Notes
Authors' addresses: Amaury Roger, Mathieu Nacher, Bernard Carme, and Celia Basurko, Centre d'Investigation Clinique, Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane (CIE INSERM 802), Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne, Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mails: amaury.roger@ch-cayenne.fr, mathieu.nacher@ch-cayenne.fr, bernard.carme@ch-cayenne.fr, and c.basurko@free.fr. Matthieu Hanf, Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne, Centre d'Investigation Clinique, Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane (CIC EC CIE 802), Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mail: matthieu@hanf.fr. Anne Sophie Drogoul, Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Laboratoire Polyvalent, Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mail: asdrogoul@pasteur-cayenne.fr. Antoine Adenis, Cayenne General Hospital, Centre d'Investigation Clinique Epidémiologie Clinique Antilles Guyane (CIC-EC INSERM CIE 802), Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mail: antoine.adenis@ch-cayenne.fr. Julie Dufour, Dominique Sainte Marie, and Pierre Couppié, Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne, Service de Dermatologie Vénéréologie, Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mails: julie.dufour@ch-cayenne.fr, dominique.sainte-marie@ch-cayenne.fr, and couppie.pierre@ch-cayenne.fr. Denis Blanchet, Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne, Laboratoire Hospitalo Universitaire de Parasitologie Mycologie, Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mail: denis.blanchet@ch-cayenne.fr. Stephane Simon, Universite des Antilles et de la Guyane, Equipe EA 3593, Epidemiologie des Parasitoses et Mycoses Tropicales, Cayenne, French Guiana, E-mail: stephane.simon@guyane.univ-ag.fr.