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Zhang YZ, Xiao DL, Wang Y, Wang HX, Sun L, Tao XX, Qu YG, 2004. The epidemic characteristics and preventive measures of hemorrhagic fever with syndromes in China. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 25: 466–469.
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2.
Huaxin C, Chengwang L, 2002. Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China's large-scale application of the vaccine. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 23: 145–147.
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Li MQ, Liu JJ, Yin K, 2006. Discussion on the surveillance and early warning of intestinal infectious diseases in the city outskirts. Dis Surveill 21: 57–58.
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Reichert TA, Simonsen L, Sharma A, Pardo SA, Fedson DS, Miller MA, 2004. Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959–1999. Am J Epidemiol 160: 492–502.
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Luz PM, Mendes BV, Codeco CT, Struchiner CJ, Galvani AP, 2008. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Am J Trop Med Hyg 79: 933–939.
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Yi J, Du CT, Wang RH, Liu L, 2007. Applications of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model on predictive incidence of tuberculosis. Chin J Prev Med 41: 118–121.
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Jenkins GW, Reinsel GC, 1994. Box GEP. Time Series Analysis. Third edition. South Windor, New South Wales, Australia: Holden Day.
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Bowerman BL, O'Connell R, 1987. Forecasting and Time Series: An Applied Approach. Boston: South-Western College Publications.
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Zhang W, 2002. SPSS Statistical Analysis Tutorial. Beijing, China: Beijing Electronic Press, 250–289.
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Díaz J, García R, Velázquez de Castro F, Hernández E, López C, Otero A, 2002. Effects of extremely hot days on people older than 65 years in Seville (Spain) from 1986 to 1997. Int J Biometeorol 46: 145–149.
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14.
Tingjie L, Xiushen C, Yanfen L, 1998. Application of the time-series method to analyze the seasonal distribution of epidemic encephalitis B incidence in Guangdong Province in the years of 1984–1993. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 19: 103–106.
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15.
Xiaoyong S, Zhiying Z, Dezhong X, Yongping Y, Kaiping C, Yuesheng L, Xiaonong Z, 2004. Application of “time series analysis” in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in areas of “breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore” in Dongting Lake areas, China. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 25: 863–866.
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Silawan T, Singhasivanon P, Kaewkungwal J, Nimmanitya S, Suwonkerd W, 2008. Temporal patterns and forecast of dengue infection in northeastern Thailand. Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 39: 90–98.
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17.
Wen Liang, Xu Dezhong, Lin Minghe, Xia J, Zhang Z, Su Y, 2004. Prediction of malaria incidence in malaria epidemic area with time series models. Journal of the Fourth Military Medical University 25: 507–510.
| Past two years | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 482 | 431 | 170 |
| Full Text Views | 474 | 5 | 0 |
| PDF Downloads | 139 | 4 | 0 |
Application of an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Predicting the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome
Qi Li
Qi Li
Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China; Handan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Handan County, China
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Na-Na Guo
Na-Na Guo
Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China; Handan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Handan County, China
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Zhan-Ying Han
Zhan-Ying Han
Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China; Handan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Handan County, China
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Yan-Bo Zhang
Yan-Bo Zhang
Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China; Handan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Handan County, China
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Shun-Xiang Qi
Shun-Xiang Qi
Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China; Handan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Handan County, China
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Yong-Gang Xu
Yong-Gang Xu
Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China; Handan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Handan County, China
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Ya-Mei Wei
Ya-Mei Wei
Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China; Handan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Handan County, China
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Xu Han
Xu Han
Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China; Handan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Handan County, China
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Ying-Ying Liu
Ying-Ying Liu
Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China; Handan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Handan County, China
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The Box-Jenkins approach was used to fit an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal Syndrome (HFRS) in China during 1986–2009. The ARIMA (0, 1, 1) × (2, 1, 0)12 models fitted exactly with the number of cases during January 1986–December 2009. The fitted model was then used to predict HFRS incidence during 2010, and the number of cases during January–December 2010 fell within the model's confidence interval for the predicted number of cases in 2010. This finding suggests that the ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in HFRS frequency and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to HFRS prevention and control.
Author Notes
Financial support: This study was supported by Hebei Province Science and Technology and Development Plan Program (07276101D–114) and the Natural Science Foundation for Hebei Province (C2007000944).
Authors' addresses: Qi Li, Zhan-Ying Han, Yan-Bo Zhang, Shun-Xiang Qi, Yong-Gang Xu, Ya-Mei Wei, Xu Han, and Ying-Ying Liu, Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 97, Shijiazhuang, China, E-mails: liqinew@yahoo.com.cn, hzhyehf@163.com, hbcdczyb@yahoo.com.cn, hbcdc999@yahoo.com.cn, walterxu04@sina.com, weiyamei2004@yahoo.com.cn, hanxu100@yahoo.cn, and sweet5520@sohu.com. Na-Na Guo, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Handan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Handan County, China, E-mail: yufeiwet@163.com.
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1.
Zhang YZ, Xiao DL, Wang Y, Wang HX, Sun L, Tao XX, Qu YG, 2004. The epidemic characteristics and preventive measures of hemorrhagic fever with syndromes in China. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 25: 466–469.
-
2.
Huaxin C, Chengwang L, 2002. Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China's large-scale application of the vaccine. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 23: 145–147.
-
3.
Li MQ, Liu JJ, Yin K, 2006. Discussion on the surveillance and early warning of intestinal infectious diseases in the city outskirts. Dis Surveill 21: 57–58.
-
4.
Reichert TA, Simonsen L, Sharma A, Pardo SA, Fedson DS, Miller MA, 2004. Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959–1999. Am J Epidemiol 160: 492–502.
-
5.
Luz PM, Mendes BV, Codeco CT, Struchiner CJ, Galvani AP, 2008. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Am J Trop Med Hyg 79: 933–939.
-
6.
Yi J, Du CT, Wang RH, Liu L, 2007. Applications of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model on predictive incidence of tuberculosis. Chin J Prev Med 41: 118–121.
-
7.
Wentong Z, 2002. The Course of Statistical Analysis with SPSS. Beijing, China: Hope Electronic Press, 250–289.
-
8.
Dunn P, 2005. Study Book. Brisbane, Australia: University of Southern Queensland.
-
9.
Chafield C, 1975. The Analysis of Time Series: Theory and Practice. London: Chapman and Hall.
-
10.
Jenkins GW, Reinsel GC, 1994. Box GEP. Time Series Analysis. Third edition. South Windor, New South Wales, Australia: Holden Day.
-
11.
Bowerman BL, O'Connell R, 1987. Forecasting and Time Series: An Applied Approach. Boston: South-Western College Publications.
-
12.
Zhang W, 2002. SPSS Statistical Analysis Tutorial. Beijing, China: Beijing Electronic Press, 250–289.
-
13.
Díaz J, García R, Velázquez de Castro F, Hernández E, López C, Otero A, 2002. Effects of extremely hot days on people older than 65 years in Seville (Spain) from 1986 to 1997. Int J Biometeorol 46: 145–149.
-
14.
Tingjie L, Xiushen C, Yanfen L, 1998. Application of the time-series method to analyze the seasonal distribution of epidemic encephalitis B incidence in Guangdong Province in the years of 1984–1993. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 19: 103–106.
-
15.
Xiaoyong S, Zhiying Z, Dezhong X, Yongping Y, Kaiping C, Yuesheng L, Xiaonong Z, 2004. Application of “time series analysis” in the prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in areas of “breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore” in Dongting Lake areas, China. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 25: 863–866.
-
16.
Silawan T, Singhasivanon P, Kaewkungwal J, Nimmanitya S, Suwonkerd W, 2008. Temporal patterns and forecast of dengue infection in northeastern Thailand. Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 39: 90–98.
-
17.
Wen Liang, Xu Dezhong, Lin Minghe, Xia J, Zhang Z, Su Y, 2004. Prediction of malaria incidence in malaria epidemic area with time series models. Journal of the Fourth Military Medical University 25: 507–510.
| Past two years | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 482 | 431 | 170 |
| Full Text Views | 474 | 5 | 0 |
| PDF Downloads | 139 | 4 | 0 |