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Chin C, Sorenson J, Harris JB, Robins WP, Charles RC, Jean-Charles RR, Bullard J, Webster DR, Kasarskis A, Peluso P, Paxinos EE, Yamaichi Y, Calderwood SB, Mekalanos JJ, Schadt EE, Waldor MK, 2011. The origin of the Haitian cholera outbreak strain. N Engl J Med 364: 33–42.
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Macdonald G, 1952. The analysis of equilibrium in malaria. Trop Dis Bull 49: 813–829.
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CNN U.S., 2010. Florida woman diagnosed with cholera. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/11/17/florida.haiti.cholera/?hpt=T2. Accessed November 17, 2010.
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BBC News Latin America and Caribbean, 2010. Haiti cholera reaches Dominican Republic. Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11771109. Accessed May 10, 2011.
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Republic of Haiti Ministry of Population and Public Health, 2011. Documentation on Cholera. Available at: http://www.mspp.gouv.ht/site/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=57&Itemid=1. Accessed July 11, 2011.
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Andrews JR, Basu S, 2011. Transmission dynamics and control of cholera in Haiti: an epidemic model. Lancet 377: 1248–1255.
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Tuite AR, Tien J, Eisenberg M, Earn DJ, Ma J, Fisman DN, 2011. Cholera epidemic in Haiti, 2010: using a transmission model to explain spatial spread of disease and identify optimal control interventions. Ann Intern Med 154: 593–601.
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Chao DL, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr, 2011. Vaccination strategies for epidemic cholera in Haiti with implications for the developing world. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108: 7081–7085.
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Signorini A, Segre A, Polgreen P, 2010. Using Twitter to estimate H1N1 activity. International Society of Disease Surveillance 9th Annual Conference, 1–2 December 2010, Park City, Utah.
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Freifeld CC, Chunara R, Mekaru SR, Chan EH, Kass-Hout T, Ayala Iacucci A, Brownstein JS, 2010. Participatory epidemiology: use of mobile phones for community-based health reporting. PLoS Med 7: e1000376.
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Rahman KM, Duggal P, Harris JB, Saha SK, Streatfield PK, Ryan ET, Calderwood SB, Qadri F, Yunus M, LaRocque RC, 2009. Familial aggregation of Vibrio cholerae-associated infection in Matlab, Bangladesh. J Health Popul Nutr 27: 733–738.
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Killeen TS, Waldor KP, Beattie MK, Spriggs DT, Kenner DR Jr, Trofa A, Sadoff JC, Mekalanos JJ, Taylor DN, 1995. Safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of live attenuated Vibrio cholerae O139 vaccine prototype. Lancet 345: 949–952.
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| Past two years | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 1457 | 1020 | 363 |
| Full Text Views | 1794 | 20 | 0 |
| PDF Downloads | 591 | 15 | 0 |
Social and News Media Enable Estimation of Epidemiological Patterns Early in the 2010 Haitian Cholera Outbreak
Rumi Chunara
Rumi Chunara
Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Division of Emergency Medicine, Children's Hospital Boston, Massachusetts; Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
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Jason R. Andrews
Jason R. Andrews
Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Division of Emergency Medicine, Children's Hospital Boston, Massachusetts; Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
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John S. Brownstein
John S. Brownstein
Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Division of Emergency Medicine, Children's Hospital Boston, Massachusetts; Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
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During infectious disease outbreaks, data collected through health institutions and official reporting structures may not be available for weeks, hindering early epidemiologic assessment. By contrast, data from informal media are typically available in near real-time and could provide earlier estimates of epidemic dynamics. We assessed correlation of volume of cholera-related HealthMap news media reports, Twitter postings, and government cholera cases reported in the first 100 days of the 2010 Haitian cholera outbreak. Trends in volume of informal sources significantly correlated in time with official case data and was available up to 2 weeks earlier. Estimates of the reproductive number ranged from 1.54 to 6.89 (informal sources) and 1.27 to 3.72 (official sources) during the initial outbreak growth period, and 1.04 to 1.51 (informal) and 1.06 to 1.73 (official) when Hurricane Tomas afflicted Haiti. Informal data can be used complementarily with official data in an outbreak setting to get timely estimates of disease dynamics.
Author Notes
Financial support: Financial support for this study was provided by research grants from Google.org, the National Library of Medicine (5G08LM9776-2), and National Institutes of Health (1R01LM01812-01) to RC and JSB, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases training grant (T32AI007433-20) to JRA.
Authors' addresses: Rumi Chunara and John Brownstein, Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, E-mails: rumi@alum.mit.edu and john.brownstein@childrens.harvard.edu. Jason Andrews, Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, E-mail: jandrews6@partners.org.
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1.
Chin C, Sorenson J, Harris JB, Robins WP, Charles RC, Jean-Charles RR, Bullard J, Webster DR, Kasarskis A, Peluso P, Paxinos EE, Yamaichi Y, Calderwood SB, Mekalanos JJ, Schadt EE, Waldor MK, 2011. The origin of the Haitian cholera outbreak strain. N Engl J Med 364: 33–42.
-
2.
Macdonald G, 1952. The analysis of equilibrium in malaria. Trop Dis Bull 49: 813–829.
-
3.
CNN U.S., 2010. Florida woman diagnosed with cholera. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/11/17/florida.haiti.cholera/?hpt=T2. Accessed November 17, 2010.
-
4.
BBC News Latin America and Caribbean, 2010. Haiti cholera reaches Dominican Republic. Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11771109. Accessed May 10, 2011.
-
5.
Republic of Haiti Ministry of Population and Public Health, 2011. Documentation on Cholera. Available at: http://www.mspp.gouv.ht/site/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=57&Itemid=1. Accessed July 11, 2011.
-
6.
Andrews JR, Basu S, 2011. Transmission dynamics and control of cholera in Haiti: an epidemic model. Lancet 377: 1248–1255.
-
7.
Tuite AR, Tien J, Eisenberg M, Earn DJ, Ma J, Fisman DN, 2011. Cholera epidemic in Haiti, 2010: using a transmission model to explain spatial spread of disease and identify optimal control interventions. Ann Intern Med 154: 593–601.
-
8.
Chao DL, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr, 2011. Vaccination strategies for epidemic cholera in Haiti with implications for the developing world. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108: 7081–7085.
-
9.
Brownstein JS, Freifeld CC, Chan EH, Keller M, Sonricker AL, Mekaru SR, Buckeridge DL, 2010. Information technology and global surveillance of cases of 2009 H1N1 influenza. N Engl J Med 362: 1731–1735.
-
10.
Ginsberg J, Mohebbi MH, Patel RS, Brammer L, Smolinski MS, Brilliant L, 2009. Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data. Nature 457: 1012–1014.
-
11.
Signorini A, Segre A, Polgreen P, 2010. Using Twitter to estimate H1N1 activity. International Society of Disease Surveillance 9th Annual Conference, 1–2 December 2010, Park City, Utah.
-
12.
Brownstein JS, Freifeld CC, Reis BY, Mandl KD, 2008. Surveillance sans frontières: internet-based emerging infectious disease intelligence and the HealthMap Project. PLoS Med 5: e151
-
13.
Freifeld CC, Chunara R, Mekaru SR, Chan EH, Kass-Hout T, Ayala Iacucci A, Brownstein JS, 2010. Participatory epidemiology: use of mobile phones for community-based health reporting. PLoS Med 7: e1000376.
-
14.
National Hurricane Center, 2010. Hurricane Tomas Discussion Twenty-Nine. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/al21/al212010.discus.029.shtml?Accessed May 10, 2011.
-
15.
Chatfield C, 2004. The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction. New York: Chapman and Hall/CRC.
-
16.
Wallinga J, Lipsitch M, 2007. How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proc Biol Sci 274: 599–604.
-
17.
Kendall EA, Chowdhury F, Begum Y, Khan AI, Li S, Thierer JH, Bailey J, Kreisel K, Tacket CO, LaRocque RC, Harris JB, Ryan ET, Qadri F, Calderwood SB, Stine OC, 2010. Relatedness of Vibrio cholerae O1/O139 isolates from patients and their household contacts, determined by multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis. J Bacteriol 192: 4367–4376.
-
18.
Mosley WH, Ahmad S, Benenson AS, Ahmed A, 1968. The relationship of vibriocidal antibody titre to susceptibility to cholera in family contacts of cholera patients. Bull World Health Organ 38: 777–785.
-
19.
Weil AA, Khan AI, Chowdhury F, Larocque RC, Faruque AS, Ryan ET, Calderwood SB, Qadri F, Harris JB, 2009. Clinical outcomes in household contacts of patients with cholera in Bangladesh. Clin Infect Dis 49: 1473–1479.
-
20.
Rahman KM, Duggal P, Harris JB, Saha SK, Streatfield PK, Ryan ET, Calderwood SB, Qadri F, Yunus M, LaRocque RC, 2009. Familial aggregation of Vibrio cholerae-associated infection in Matlab, Bangladesh. J Health Popul Nutr 27: 733–738.
-
21.
Cavanaugh DC, Thorpe BD, Bushman JB, Nicholes PS, Rust JH Jr, 1965. Cholera in East Pakistan families, 1962–63. Pakistan-Seato Cholera Research Laboratory. Bull World Health Organ 32: 205–209.
-
22.
Killeen TS, Waldor KP, Beattie MK, Spriggs DT, Kenner DR Jr, Trofa A, Sadoff JC, Mekalanos JJ, Taylor DN, 1995. Safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of live attenuated Vibrio cholerae O139 vaccine prototype. Lancet 345: 949–952.
-
23.
Goel S, Hofman JM, Lahaie S, Pennock DM, Watts DJ, 2010. Predicting consumer behavior with Web search. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107: 17486–17490.
-
24.
Maskalyk J, Hoey J, 2003. SARS update. CMAJ 168: 1294–1295.
-
25.
Cauchemez S, Boelle PY, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Thomas G, Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Anderson RM, Valleron AJ, 2006. Real-time estimates in early detection of SARS. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 110–113.
-
26.
Wallinga J, Teunis P, 2004. Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures. Am J Epidemiol 160: 509–516.
-
27.
White L, Wallinga J, Finelli L, Reed C, Riley S, Lipsitch M, Pagano M, 2009. Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA. Influenza Other Respi Viruses 3: 267–276.
-
28.
Nielsen, 2010. Mobile Youth Around the World. New York: The Nielsen Company.
-
29.
Chan EH, Sahai V, Conrad C, Brownstein JS, 2011. Using web search query data to monitor dengue epidemics: a new model for neglected tropical disease surveillance. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 5: e1206.
| Past two years | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 1457 | 1020 | 363 |
| Full Text Views | 1794 | 20 | 0 |
| PDF Downloads | 591 | 15 | 0 |