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Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important public health problem in Shandong Province, China. In this study, we combined ecologic niche modeling with geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to identify the risk factors and affected areas of hantavirus infections in rodent hosts. Land cover and elevation were found to be closely associated with the presence of hantavirus-infected rodent hosts. The averaged area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864, implying good performance. The predicted risk maps based on the model were validated both by the hantavirus-infected rodents' distribution and HFRS human case localities with a good fit. These findings have the applications for targeting control and prevention efforts.
Financial support: The study was supported by the Chinese National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (no. 30725032), Special Program for Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in China (no. 2008ZX10004-012, no. 2009ZX10004-720), Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 30590374, no. 30972521).
Authors' addresses: Lan Wei, Quan Qian, Xiu-Jun Li, Hong Yang, Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Feng-Tai District, Beijing, Peoples' Republic of China, E-mails: firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, and email@example.com. Zhi-Qiang Wang, Shao-Xia Song, and Xian-Jun Wang, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, People's Republic of China, E-mails: firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com, and firstname.lastname@example.org. Gregory E. Glass, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, E-mail: email@example.com. Wen-Yi Zhang, Institute of Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People's Liberation Army, Feng-Tai District, Beijing, Peoples' Republic of China, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org.