Modeling CD4+ Cell Count Increase Over a Six-Year Period in HIV-1–Infected Patients on Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Senegal

Pierre De Beaudrap Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

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Jean-François Etard Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

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Assane Diouf Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

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Ibrahima Ndiaye Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

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Ndèye Fatou Guèye Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

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Pape Mandoumbé Guèye Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

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Papa Salif Sow Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

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Souleymane Mboup Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

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Ibra Ndoye Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

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René Ecochard Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

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Delaporte Eric Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

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To assess the extents and determinants of long-term CD4 cell increases after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART), changes in CD4 cell counts were analyzed in a cohort of HIV-1–infected Senegalese using a mixed-effects model. After a median follow-up of 54 months, an average of 483 CD4 cells/mm3 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 331; 680) was reached. The average asymptote level was ~421 cells/mm3 (95% CI = 390; 454) in patients with < 200 cells/mm3 at baseline and ~500 cells/mm3 in patients with > 200 cells/mm3. The independent predictors of long-term CD4 cell reconstitution were the baseline CD4 cell count and the monthly average viral load over the entire follow-up. This good long-term immune reconstitution, optimal in subjects with low average viral loads and > 200 CD4 cells/mm3 at baseline, argues in favor of the earliest possible access to ART and underlines the importance of strict compliance with the treatment.

Author Notes

Reprint requests: Pierre de Beaudrap, IRD, UMR 145, 911 Avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, F-34394 Montpellier, France, E-mail: pierre.debeaudrap@ird.fr.
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