Haines A, Patz JA, 2004. Health effects of climate change. JAMA 291 :99–103.
Sutherst RW, 2004. Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases. Clin Microbiol Rev 17 :136–173.
Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA, 2005. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438 :310–317.
Haines A, Kovats RS, Campbell-Lendrum D, Corvalan C, 2006. Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation. Lancet 367 :2101–2109.
McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S, 2006. Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet 367 :859–869.
IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Barnett DN, Jones GS, Webb MJ, Collins M, Stainforth DA, 2004. Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430 :768–772.
Allen MR, Ingram WJ, 2002. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419 :224–232.
Milly PCD, Dunne KA, Vecchia AV, 2005. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438 :347–350.
Lindsay SW, Martens WJM, 1998. Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future. Bull World Health Organ 76 :33–45.
Rogers DJ, Randolph SE, 2000. The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science 289 :1763–1766.
Hay SI, Cox J, Rogers DJ, Randolph SE, Stern DI, Shanks GD, Myers MF, Snow RW, 2002. Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands. Nature 415 :905–909.
Tanser FC, Sharp B, le Sueur D, 2003. Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa. Lancet 362 :1792–1798.
Zhou GF, Minakawa N, Githeko AK, Yan GY, 2004. Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101 :2375–2380.
Pascual M, Ahumada JA, Chaves LF, Rodo X, Bouma M, 2006. Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103 :5829–5834.
Hales S, de Wet N, Maindonald J, Woodward A, 2002. Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model. Lancet 360 :830–834.
Martens WJM, Jetten TH, Rotmans J, Niessen LW, 1995. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a global modeling perspective. Glob Environ Change 5 :195–209.
Martens WJM, Jetten TH, Focks DA, 1997. Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming. Clim Change 35 :145–156.
Morgan JAT, Dejong RJ, Snyder SD, Mkoji GM, Loker ES, 2001. Schistosoma mansoni and Biomphalaria: past history and future trends. Parasitology 123 (Suppl.):S211–S228.
Utzinger J, Zhou XN, Chen MG, Bergquist R, 2005. Conquering schistosomiasis in China: the long march. Acta Trop 96 :69–96.
Zhou XN, Wang LY, Chen MG, Wu XH, Jiang QW, Chen XY, Zheng J, Utzinger J, 2005. The public health significance and control of schistosomiasis in China—then and now. Acta Trop 96 :97–105.
Liang S, Yang CH, Zhong B, Qiu DC, 2006. Re-emerging schistosomiasis in hilly and mountainous areas of Sichuan, China. Bull World Health Organ 84 :139–144.
Yang GJ, Vounatsou P, Zhou XN, Tanner M, Utzinger J, 2005. A potential impact of climate change and water resource development on the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in China. Parassitologia 47 :127–134.
Yang GJ, Utzinger J, Sun LP, Hong QB, Vounatsou P, Tanner M, Zhou XN, 2007. Effect of temperature on the development of Schistosoma japonicum within Oncomelania hupensis, and hibernation of O. hupensis. Parasitol Res 100 :695–700.
Qin DH, 2004. Climate Change: Science, Impact and Countermeasure. Beijing: China Meteorological Press.
Mao CP, 1990. Biology of Schistosome and Control of Schistosomiasis. Beijing: People’s Health Press.
Chatfield C, 1989. The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction. London: Chapman & Hall.
Abdel-Aal RE, Mangoud AM, 1998. Modeling and forecasting monthly patient volume at a primary health care clinic using univariate time-series analysis. Comput Methods Programs Biomed 56 :235–247.
Yang GJ, Gemperli A, Vounatsou P, Tanner M, Zhou XN, Utzinger J, 2006. A growing degree-days based time-series analysis for prediction of Schistosoma japonicum transmission in Jiangsu province, China. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75 :549–555.
Hurvich CM, Tsai CL, 1995. Model selection for extended quasi-likelihood models in small samples. Biometrics 51 :1077–1084.
Chen Z, Zhou XN, Yang K, Wang XH, Yao ZQ, Wang TP, Yang GJ, Yang YJ, Zhang SQ, Wang J, Jia TW, Wu XH, 2007. Strategy formulation for schistosomiasis japonica control in different environmental settings supported by spatial analysis: a case study from China. Geospatial Health 1 :223–231.
Shrout PE, 1998. Measurement reliability and agreement in psychiatry. Stat Methods Med Res 7 :301–317.
Wang LD, 2006. The Epidemic Status of Schistosomiasis in China: Results from the Third Nationwide Sampling Survey in 2004. Shanghai: Shanghai Scientific and Technological Literature Publishing House.
Yang GJ, Vounatsou P, Zhou XN, Tanner M, Utzinger J, 2005. A Bayesian-based approach for spatio-temporal modeling of county level prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infection in Jiangsu province, China. Int J Parasitol 35 :155–162.
Fenwick A, Rollinson D, Southgate V, 2006. Implementation of human schistosomiasis control: challenges and prospects. Adv Parasitol 61 :567–622.
Xu XJ, Wei FH, Yang XX, Dai YH, Yu GY, Chen LY, Su ZM, 2000. Possible effects of the Three Gorges dam on the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum on the Jiang Han plain, China. Ann Trop Med Parasitol 94 :333–341.
Zhou XN, Lin DD, Yang HM, Chen HG, Sun LP, Yang GJ, Hong QB, Brown L, Malone JB, 2002. Use of Landsat TM satellite surveillance data to measure the impact of the 1998 flood on snail intermediate host dispersal in the lower Yangtze River basin. Acta Trop 82 :199–205.
Banister J, Zhang XB, 2005. China, economic development and mortality decline. World Dev 33 :21–41.
Yang GJ, Vounatsou P, Tanner M, Zhou XN, Utzinger J, 2006. Remote sensing for predicting potential habitats of Oncomelania hupensis in Hongze, Baima and Gaoyou lakes in Jiangsu province, China. Geospatial Health 1 :85–92.
Stone R, Jia H, 2006. Going against the flow. Science 313 :1034–1037.
Steinmann P, Keiser J, Bos R, Tanner M, Utzinger J, 2006. Schistosomiasis and water resources development: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimates of people at risk. Lancet Infect Dis 6 :411–425.
|Past two years||Past Year||Past 30 Days|
|Full Text Views||862||297||5|
Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4°C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8°C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0°C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9°C in 2030 and 1.6°C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km2 by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.