- INTRODUCTION
- REQUIREMENTS OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE EFFECTS OF MALARIA VACCINES
- STRUCTURE OF THIS PROJECT
- STRATEGY OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC MODELING
- STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF OUR MODELING APPROACH
- CONCLUSION
- APPENDIX 1 EQUATIONS OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGIC MODEL INFECTION OF THE HUMAN HOST54
- CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SIMULATED INFECTIONS50
- MODEL FOR INFECTIVITY OF THE HUMAN HOST49,53
- ACUTE MORBIDITY52,55
- MORTALITY52
- ANEMIA73
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1
Anderson RM, May RM, 1991. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.
-
2
Ballou WR, Arevalo-Herrera M, Carucci D, Richie TL, Corradin G, Diggs C, Druilhe P, Giersing BK, Saul A, Heppner DG, Kester KE, Lanar DE, Lyon J, Hill AV, Pan W, Cohen JD, 2004. Update on the clinical development of candidate malaria vaccines. Am J Trop Med Hyg 71 (2 Suppl):239–247.
-
3
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Breman JG, Egan A, Keusch GT, 2001. The intolerable burden of malaria: a new look at the numbers. Am J Trop Med Hyg 64 (Suppl): iv–vii.
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Greenwood B, Bojang K, Whitty C, Targett G, 2005. Malaria. Lancet: 1487–1498.
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McKenzie FE, Samba EM, 2004. The role of mathematical modeling in evidence-based malaria control. Am J Trop Med Hyg 71 (Suppl):94–96.
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Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr, Struchiner CJ, 1996. Estimability and interpretation of vaccine efficacy using frailty mixing models. Am J Epidemiol 144 :83–97.
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MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF MALARIA VACCINES ON THE CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY AND NATURAL HISTORY OF PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM MALARIA: OVERVIEW
THOMAS SMITH
THOMAS SMITH
Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland; Ifakara Health Research and Development Center, Ifakara, Tanzania; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
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GERRY F. KILLEEN
GERRY F. KILLEEN
Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland; Ifakara Health Research and Development Center, Ifakara, Tanzania; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
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NICOLAS MAIRE
NICOLAS MAIRE
Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland; Ifakara Health Research and Development Center, Ifakara, Tanzania; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
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AMANDA ROSS
AMANDA ROSS
Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland; Ifakara Health Research and Development Center, Ifakara, Tanzania; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
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LOUIS MOLINEAUX
LOUIS MOLINEAUX
Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland; Ifakara Health Research and Development Center, Ifakara, Tanzania; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
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FABRIZIO TEDIOSI
FABRIZIO TEDIOSI
Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland; Ifakara Health Research and Development Center, Ifakara, Tanzania; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
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GUY HUTTON
GUY HUTTON
Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland; Ifakara Health Research and Development Center, Ifakara, Tanzania; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
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JÜRG UTZINGER
JÜRG UTZINGER
Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland; Ifakara Health Research and Development Center, Ifakara, Tanzania; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
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KLAUS DIETZ
KLAUS DIETZ
Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland; Ifakara Health Research and Development Center, Ifakara, Tanzania; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
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MARCEL TANNER
MARCEL TANNER
Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland; Ifakara Health Research and Development Center, Ifakara, Tanzania; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
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We report a major project to develop integrated mathematical models for predicting the epidemiologic and economic effects of malaria vaccines both at the individual and population level. The project has developed models of the within-host dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum that have been fitted to parasite density profiles from malariatherapy patients, and simulations of P. falciparum epidemiology fitted to field malariologic datasets from a large ensemble of settings across Africa. The models provide a unique platform for predicting both the short- and long-term effects of malaria vaccines on the burden of disease, allowing for the temporal dynamics of effects on immunity and transmission. We discuss how the models can be used to obtain robust cost-effectiveness estimates for a wide range of malaria vaccines and vaccination delivery strategies in different eco-epidemiologic settings. This paper outlines for a non-mathematical audience the approach we have taken and its underlying rationale.
Author Notes
- INTRODUCTION
- REQUIREMENTS OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE EFFECTS OF MALARIA VACCINES
- STRUCTURE OF THIS PROJECT
- STRATEGY OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC MODELING
- STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF OUR MODELING APPROACH
- CONCLUSION
- APPENDIX 1 EQUATIONS OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGIC MODEL INFECTION OF THE HUMAN HOST54
- CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SIMULATED INFECTIONS50
- MODEL FOR INFECTIVITY OF THE HUMAN HOST49,53
- ACUTE MORBIDITY52,55
- MORTALITY52
- ANEMIA73
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1
Anderson RM, May RM, 1991. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.
-
2
Ballou WR, Arevalo-Herrera M, Carucci D, Richie TL, Corradin G, Diggs C, Druilhe P, Giersing BK, Saul A, Heppner DG, Kester KE, Lanar DE, Lyon J, Hill AV, Pan W, Cohen JD, 2004. Update on the clinical development of candidate malaria vaccines. Am J Trop Med Hyg 71 (2 Suppl):239–247.
-
3
Snow RW, Guerra CA, Noor AM, Myint HY, Hay SI, 2005. The global distribution of clinical episodes of malaria. Nature 434 :214–217.
-
4
Breman JG, Egan A, Keusch GT, 2001. The intolerable burden of malaria: a new look at the numbers. Am J Trop Med Hyg 64 (Suppl): iv–vii.
-
5
Greenwood B, Bojang K, Whitty C, Targett G, 2005. Malaria. Lancet: 1487–1498.
-
6
McKenzie FE, Samba EM, 2004. The role of mathematical modeling in evidence-based malaria control. Am J Trop Med Hyg 71 (Suppl):94–96.
-
8
Dietz K, Molineaux L, Thomas A, 1974. A malaria model tested in the African savannah. Bull World Health Org 50 :347–357.
-
9
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-
10
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-
11
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-
12
Paget-McNicol S, Gatton M, Hastings I, Saul A, 2002. The Plasmodium falciparum var gene switching rate, switching mechanism and patterns of parasite recrudescence described by mathematical modelling. Parasitology 124 :225–235.
-
13
Molineaux L, Diebner HH, Eichner M, Collins WE, Jeffery GM, Dietz K, 2001. Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia described by a new mathematical model. Parasitology 122 :379–391.
-
14
Recker M, Nee S, Bull P, Kinyanjui S, Marsh K, Newbold C, Gupta S, 2004. Transient cross-reactive immune responses can orchestrate antigenic variation in malaria. Nature 429 :555–558.
-
15
McQueen PG, McKenzie FE, 2004. Age-structured red blood cell susceptibility and the dynamics of malaria infections. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101 :9161–9166.
-
16
Jakeman GN, Saul A, Hogarth WL, Collins WE, 1999. Anaemia of acute malaria infections in non-immune patients primarily results from destruction of uninfected erythrocytes. Parasitology 119 :127–133.
-
17
Halloran ME, Struchiner CJ, Spielman A, 1989. Modeling malaria vaccines. II: Population effects of stage-specific malaria vaccines dependent on natural boosting. Math Biosci 94 :115–149.
-
18
Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr, Struchiner CJ, 1996. Estimability and interpretation of vaccine efficacy using frailty mixing models. Am J Epidemiol 144 :83–97.
-
19
Alonso PL, Molyneux ME, Smith T, 1995. Design and methodology of field-based intervention trials of malaria vaccines. Parasitol Today 11 :197–200.
-
20
Alonso PL, Smith T, Schellenberg JR, Masanja H, Mwankusye S, Urassa H, Bastos de Azevedo I, Chongela J, Kobero S, Menendez C, 1994. Randomised trial of efficacy of SPf66 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria in children in southern Tanzania. Lancet 344 :1175–1181.
-
21
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-
22
Snow R, Marsh K, 1995. Will reducing Plasmodium falciparum transmission alter malaria mortality among African children? Parasitol Today 11 :188–190.
-
23
Trape JF, Rogier C, 1996. Combating malaria morbidity and mortality by reducing transmission. Parasitol Today 12 :236–240.
-
24
Snow R, Omumbo J, Lowe B, Molyneux CS, Obiero JO, Palmer A, Weber MW, Pinder M, Nahlen B, Obonyo C, Newbold C, Gupta S, Marsh K, 1997. Relation between severe malaria morbidity in children and level of Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Africa. Lancet 349 :1650–1654.
-
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