THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF DROUGHT, WETTING, AND HUMAN CASES OF ST. LOUIS ENCEPHALITIS IN SOUTHCENTRAL FLORIDA

JEFFREY SHAMAN Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts; Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, Florida; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

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JONATHAN F. DAY Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts; Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, Florida; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

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MARC STIEGLITZ Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts; Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, Florida; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

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Using a dynamic hydrology model, we simulated land surface wetness conditions at 42 sites in 28 counties in southcentral Florida from 1990 to 1998 and compared these simulations with the incidence of human cases of St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) within these counties. Within counties, drought four months prior and wetting one-half month prior were significantly associated with human cases of SLE. Simulated land surface wetness conditions resolved transmission loci in both space and time, and May drought was significantly associated with the subsequent occurrence of human SLE cases. These findings are consistent with previous results associating simulated land surface wetness conditions with the transmission of SLE virus as measured in sentinel chickens, and support our working hypothesis that springtime drought facilitates SLE virus amplification in mosquito and wild bird populations.

Author Notes

  • 1

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  • 2

    Shaman J, Day J, Stieglitz M, 2002. Drought-induced amplification of St. Louis encephilitis virus, Florida. Emer Infect Dis 8 :575–580.

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  • 7

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  • 9

    Shaman J, Day J, Stieglitz M, 2003. St. Louis encephalitis virus in wild birds during the 1990 south Florida epidemic: the importance of drought, wetting conditions, and the emergence of Culex nigripalpus to arboviral amplification and transmission. J Med Entomol 40 :547–554.

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  • 13

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    Day JF, Curtis GA, 1994. When it rains they soar–and that makes Culex nigripalpus a dangerous mosquito. Am Entomologist 40 :162–167.

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