• 1

    Davidson G, Paterson HE, Coluzzi M, Mason GF, Micks DW, 1967. The Anopheles gambiae Complex. Wright JW, Pal R, eds. Genetics of Insect Vectors of Disease. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 211–250.

  • 2

    Hunt RH, Coetzee M, Fettene M, 1998. The Anopheles gambiae complex: a new species from Ethiopia. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 92 :231–235.

  • 3

    Breman JG, Egan A, Keusch GT, 2001. The intolerable burden of malaria: a new look at the numbers. Am J Trop Med Hyg 64 (suppl):iv–vii.

  • 4

    White GB, 1974. Anopheles gambiae complex and disease transmission in Africa. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 68 :278–298.

  • 5

    Lindsay SW, Parson L, Thomas CJ, 1998. Mapping the ranges and relative abundance of the two principal African malaria vectors, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis, using climate data. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 265 :847–854.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 6

    Coetzee M, Craig M, le Sueur D, 2000. Distribution of African malaria mosquitoes belonging to the Anopheles gambiae complex. Parasitol Today 16 :74–77.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 7

    Peterson AT, Vieglais DA, 2001. Predicting species invasions using ecological niche modeling: new approaches from bioinformatics attack a pressing problem. BioScience 51 :363–371.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 8

    Coluzzi M, Sabatini A, Petrarca V, Di Deco MA, 1979. Chromosomal differentiation and adaptation to human environments in the Anopheles gambiae complex. Trans R Soc Trop Med H 73 :483–497.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 9

    Toure YT, Petrarca V, Traore SF, Coulibaly A, Maiga HM, Sankare O, Sow M, Di Deco MA, Coluzzi M, 1998. The distribution and inversion polymorphism of chromosomally recognized taxa of the Anopheles gambiae complex in Mali, West Africa. Parassitologia 40 :477–511.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 10

    Rogers DJ, Randolph SE, Snow RW, Hay SI, 2002. Satellite imagery in the study and forecast of malaria. Nature 415 :710–715.

  • 11

    Stockwell DRB, Peters D, 1999. The GARP modelling system: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 13 :143–158.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 12

    Peterson AT, Ball LG, Cohoon KP, 2002. Predicting distributions of Mexican birds using ecological niche modelling methods. Ibis 144 :E27–E32.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 13

    Anderson RP, Lew D, Peterson AT, 2003. Evaluating predictive models of species’ distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models. Ecol Model 162 :211–232.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 14

    Peterson AT, 2001. Predicting species’ geographic distributions based on ecological niche modeling. The Condor 103 :599–605.

  • 15

    White GB, 1989. Malaria. Geographical Distribution of Arthropod-Borne Diseases and their Principal Vectors. Geneva: World Health Organization, WHO/VBC, 7–22.

  • 16

    Lehmann T, Hawley WA, Grebert H, Danga M, Atieli F, Collins FH, 1999. The Rift Valley complex as a barrier to gene flow for Anopheles gambiae in Kenya. J Hered 90 :613–621.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 17

    SAS OnlineDoc, (rtm),2002. Cary, NC: SAS Institute, Inc.

  • 18

    Soper FL, Wilson DB, 1943. Anopheles gambiae in Brazil: 1930 to 1940. New York: The Rockefeller Foundation.

  • 19

    Petrarca V, Vercruysse J, Coluzzi M, 1987. Observations on t he Anopheles gambiae complex in the Senegal River Basin. West Afr Med Vet Entomol 1 :303–312.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 20

    Peterson AT, Sanchez-Cordero V, Beard CB, Ramsey JM, 2002. Ecologic niche modeling and potential reservoirs for Chagas disease, Mexico. Emerg Infect Dis 8 :662–667.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 21

    Peterson AT, Ortega-Huerta MA, Bartley J, Sanchez-Cordero V, Soberon J, Buddemeier RH, Stockwell DR, 2002. Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature 416 :626–629.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
 
 
 

 

 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GEOGRAPHIC AND ECOLOGIC DISTRIBUTIONS OF THE ANOPHELES GAMBIAE COMPLEX PREDICTED USING A GENETIC ALGORITHM

View More View Less
  • 1 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia; University of Kansas Natural History Museum, Lawrence, Kansas

The distribution of the Anopheles gambiae complex of malaria vectors in Africa is uncertain due to under-sampling of vast regions. We use ecologic niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of three members of the complex (A. gambiae, A. arabiensis, and A. quadriannulatus) and demonstrate the statistical significance of the models. Predictions correspond well to previous estimates, but provide detail regarding spatial discontinuities in the distribution of A. gambiae s.s. that are consistent with population genetic studies. Our predictions also identify large areas of Africa where the presence of A. arabiensis is predicted, but few specimens have been obtained, suggesting under-sampling of the species. Finally, we project models developed from African distribution data for the late 1900s into the past and to South America to determine retrospectively whether the deadly 1929 introduction of A. gambiae sensu lato into Brazil was more likely that of A. gambiae sensu stricto or A. arabiensis.

Author Notes

Reprint requests: Mark Q. Benedict, Entomology Branch, Division of Parasitic Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Mailstop F-22, 4770 Buford Highway NE, Atlanta, GA 30341-3717.
Save