EVALUATING THE COMPLETENESS OF DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEILLANCE OF CHILDREN LESS THAN FIVE YEARS OLD IN WESTERN KENYA: A CAPTURE-RECAPTURE APPROACH

THOMAS P. EISELE Division of Parasitic Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia; Department of International Health and Development, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana; Center for Vector Biology and Control Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya

Search for other papers by THOMAS P. EISELE in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
KIM A. LINDBLADE Division of Parasitic Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia; Department of International Health and Development, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana; Center for Vector Biology and Control Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya

Search for other papers by KIM A. LINDBLADE in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
DANIEL H. ROSEN Division of Parasitic Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia; Department of International Health and Development, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana; Center for Vector Biology and Control Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya

Search for other papers by DANIEL H. ROSEN in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
FRANK ODHIAMBO Division of Parasitic Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia; Department of International Health and Development, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana; Center for Vector Biology and Control Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya

Search for other papers by FRANK ODHIAMBO in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
JOHN M. VULULE Division of Parasitic Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia; Department of International Health and Development, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana; Center for Vector Biology and Control Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya

Search for other papers by JOHN M. VULULE in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
LAURENCE SLUTSKER Division of Parasitic Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia; Department of International Health and Development, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana; Center for Vector Biology and Control Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya

Search for other papers by LAURENCE SLUTSKER in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

We evaluated the completeness and differential ascertainment of vital events in children less than five years old registered in two rounds of a demographic surveillance system (DSS) in western Kenya using a two-sample capture-recapture. The primary lists consisted of births and child deaths identified by two rounds of the DSS conducted in October 2000 and August 2001. The secondary lists consisted of births and child deaths identified independently from two surveys of 5,000 randomly selected households conducted immediately after each DSS round, covering the same population over the same time period. Analysis of the overlap between lists yielded the following sensitivities for the two DSS rounds: 62% and 49%, respectively, for identifying neonatal deaths (<1 month); 72% and 78%, respectively, for post-neonatal child deaths (1–59 months); and 88% and 78%, respectively, for identifying newborns. Female deaths were less likely to be reported than male deaths. The primary limitation of using capture-recapture in this setting was difficulty in matching between lists due to inconsistent dates of birth and death and variability in spelling of names. Assuming limitations of current methods are sufficiently addressed, capture-recapture appears to be a useful tool in evaluating DSS completeness and differential ascertainment of vital events.

  • 1

    Rahmathullah L, Underwood BA, Thulasiraj RD, Milton RC, Ramaswamy K, Rahmathullah R, Babu G, 1990. Reduced mortality among children in southern India receiving a small weekly dose of vitamin A. N Engl J Med 323 :929–935.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 2

    Vijayaraghavan K, Radhaiah G, Prakasam BS, Sarma KV, Reddy V, 1990. Effect of massive dose vitamin A on morbidity and mortality in Indian children. Lancet 336 :1342–1345.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 3

    Anonymous, 1993. Vitamin A supplementation in northern Ghana: effects on clinic attendances, hospital admissions, and child mortality. Ghana VAST Study Team. Lancet 342 :7–12.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 4

    Alonso PL, Lindsay SW, Armstrong JR, Conteh M, Hill AG, David PH, Fegan G, de Francisco A, Hall AJ, Shenton FC, Cham K, Greenwood BM, 1991. The effect of insecticide-treated bed nets on mortality of Gambian children. Lancet 337 :1499–1502.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 5

    D’Alessandro U, Olaleye BO, McGuire W, Langerock P, Bennett S, Aikins MK, Thomson MC, Cham MK, Cham BA, Greenwood BM, 1995. Mortality and morbidity from malaria in Gambian children after introduction of an impregnated bednet programme. Lancet 345 :479–483.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 6

    Binka FN, Kubaje A, Adjuik M, Williams LA, Lengeler C, Maude GH, Armah GE, Kajihara B, Adiamah JH, Smith PG, 1996. Impact of permethrin impregnated bednets on child mortality in Kassena- Nankana district, Ghana: a randomized controlled trial. Trop Med Int Health 1 :147–154.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 7

    Nevill CG, Some ES, Mung’ala VO, Mutemi W, New L, Marsh K, Lengeler C, Snow RW, 1996. Insecticide-treated bednets reduce mortality and severe morbidity from malaria among children on the Kenyan coast. Trop Med Int Health 1 :139–146.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 8

    Habluetzel A, Diallo DA, Esposito F, Lamizana L, Pagnoni F, Lengeler C, Traore C, Cousens SN, 1997. Do insecticide-treated curtains reduce all-cause child mortality in Burkina Faso? Trop Med Int Health 2 :855–862.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 9

    Schellenberg JA, Abdulla S, Nathan R, Mukasa O, Marchant T, Kikumbih N, Mushi A, Mponda H, Minja H, Mshinda H, Tanner M, Lengeler C, 2001. Effect of large-scale social marketing of insecticide-treated nets on child survival in rural Tanzania. Lancet 357 :1241–1247.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 10

    Phillips J, 1998. The “Perfect DSS”. INDEPTH Network Constituting Conference. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 1–16.

  • 11

    Indepth-Network, 2002. Indepth-network website <http://www.indepth-netwrok.net/>.

  • 12

    Doscher ML, Woodward JA, 1983. Estimating the size of sub-populations of heroin users: applications of log-linear models to capture/recapture sampling. Int J Addict 18 :167–182.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 13

    Mastro TD, Kitayaporn D, Weniger BG, Vanichseni S, Laosunthorn V, Uneklabh T, Uneklabh C, Choopanya K, Limpakarnjanarat K, 1994. Estimating the number of HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok: a capture—recapture method. Am J Public Health 84 :1094–1099.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 14

    Maxwell JC, 2000. Methods for estimating the number of “hard-core” drug users. Subst Use Misuse 35 :399–420.

  • 15

    Rubin G, Umbach D, Shyu SF, Castillo-Chavez C, 1992. Using mark-recapture methodology to estimate the size of a population at risk for sexually transmitted diseases. Stat Med 11 :1533–1549.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 16

    Gill GV, Ismail AA, Beeching NJ, 2001. The use of capture-recapture techniques in determining the prevalence of type 2 diabetes. QJM 94 :341–346.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 17

    Modesitt SK, Hulman S, Fleming D, 1990. Evaluation of active versus passive AIDS surveillance in Oregon. Am J Public Health 80 :463–464.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 18

    Berghold A, Stronegger WJ, Wernecke KD, 2001. A model and application for estimating completeness of registration. Methods Inf Med 40 :122–126.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 19

    Anonymous, 2000. 1999 Population and Housing Census: Volume 1. Nairobi, Kenya: Republic of Kenya: Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Finance and Planning.

  • 20

    Phillips-Howard PA, Nahlen BL, Alaii JA, ter Kuile FO, Gimnig JE, Terlouw DJ, Kachur SP, Hightower AW, Lal AA, Schoute E, Oloo AJ, Hawley WA, 2003. The efficacy of permethrin-treated bed nets on child mortality and morbidity in western Kenya. I. Development of infrastructure and description of study site. Am J Trop Med Hyg 68 (Suppl 4):3–9.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 21

    Hawley WA, Phillips-Howard PA, ter Kuile FO, Terlouw DJ, Vulule JM, Ombok M, Nahlen BL, Gimnig JE, Kariuki SK, Kolczak MS, Hightower AW, 2003. Community-wide effects of permethrin-treated bed nets on child mortality and malaria morbidity in western Kenya. Am J Trop Med Hyg 68 (Suppl 4):121–127.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 22

    Phillips-Howard PA, Ter Kuile FO, Nahlen BL, Alaii JA, Gimnig JE, Kolczak MS, Terlouw DJ, Kariuki SK, Shi YP, Kachur SP, Hightower AW, Vulule JM, Hawley WA, 2003. The efficacy of permethrin-treated bed nets on child mortality and morbidity in western Kenya. II. Study design and methods. Am J Trop Med Hyg 68 (Suppl 4):10–15.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 23

    Arudo J, Gimnig JE, ter Kuile FO, Kachur SP, Slutsker L, Kolczak MS, Hawley WS, Orago ASS, Nahlen BL, Phillips-Howard PA, 2003. Comparison of government statistics and demographic surveillance to monitor mortality in children less than five years old in western Kenya. Am J Trop Med Hyg 68 (Suppl 4):30–37.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 24

    Hook EB, Regal RR, 1995. Capture-recapture methods in epidemiology: methods and limitations. Epidemiol Rev 17 :243–264.

  • 25

    Chao A, Tsay PK, Lin S, Shau W, Chao D, 2001. Tutorial in biostatistics: the application of capture-recapture models to epidemiological data. Stat Med 20 :3123–3157.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 26

    Chapman DG, 1951. Some properties of the hypergeometric distribution with applications to zoological sample censuses. Univ Calif Public Stat 1 :131–160.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 27

    Wittes JT, 1972. On the bias and estimated variance of Chapman’s two-sample capture-recapture population estimate. Biometrics 28 :592–597.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 28

    Regal R, Hook E, 1984. Goodness-of-fit based confidence intervals for estimates of the size of a closed population. Stat Med 3 :287–291.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 29

    Becker SR, Diop F, Thornton JN, 1993. Infant and child mortality in two counties of Liberia: results of a survey in 1988 and trends since 1984. Int J Epidemiol 22 (Suppl 1):S56–S63.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 30

    Nannan N, Bradshaw D, Mazur R, Maphumulo S, 1998. What is the infant mortality rate in South Africa? The need for improved data. S Afr Med J 88 :1583–1587.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 31

    McElroy PD, ter Kuile FO, Hightower AW, Hawley WA, Phillips-Howard PA, Oloo AJ, Lal AA, Nahlen BL, 2001. All-cause mortality among young children in western Kenya. VI: the Asembo Bay Cohort Project. Am J Trop Med Hyg 64 :18–27.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 32

    van den Broeck J, Eeckels R, Massa G, 1996. Maternal determinants of child survival in a rural African community. Int J Epidemiol 25 :998–1004.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 33

    Watts T, Ng’andu N, Wray J, 1989. Mothers in an urban township in Zambia. J Trop Pediatr 35 :117–120.

  • 34

    De Francisco A, Hall AJ, Schellenberg JR, Greenwood AM, Greenwood BM, 1993. The pattern of infant and childhood mortality in Upper River Division, The Gambia. Ann Trop Paediatr 13 :345–352.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 35

    Salum FM, Wilkes TJ, Kivumbi K, Curtis CF, 1994. Mortality of under-fives in a rural area of holoendemic malaria transmission. Acta Trop 58 :29–34.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 36

    Mung’ala VO, Snow RW, 1994. Death registration on the Kenyan Coast. East Afr Med J 71 :747–750.

  • 37

    Binka FN, Maude GH, Gyapong M, Ross DA, Smith PG, 1995. Risk factors for child mortality in northern Ghana: a case-control study. Int J Epidemiol 24 :127–135.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • 38

    Diallo DA, Habluetzel A, Esposito F, Cousens SN, 1996. Comparison of two methods for assessing child mortality in areas without comprehensive registration systems. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 90 :610–613.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
Past two years Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 15 15 7
Full Text Views 211 82 0
PDF Downloads 30 12 0
 
Membership Banner
 
 
 
Affiliate Membership Banner
 
 
Research for Health Information Banner
 
 
CLOCKSS
 
 
 
Society Publishers Coalition Banner
Save