Authors:
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and
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1.
Hopkins D , Weiss A , Yerian S , Sapp S , Cama V , 2022. Progress toward global eradication of dracunculiasis—worldwide, January 2021–June 2022. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 71: 1496–1502.
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2.
World Health Organization , 2022. Dracunculiasis (Guinea-Worm Disease). Available at: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dracunculiasis-(guinea-worm-disease). Accessed January 8, 2024.
-
3.
Eberhard ML et al., 2014. The peculiar epidemiology of dracunculiasis in Chad. Am J Trop Med Hyg 90: 61–70.
-
4.
Hopkins DR , Weiss A , Torres-Velez FJ , Sapp SGH , Ijaz K , 2022. Dracunculiasis eradication: end-stage challenges. Am J Trop Med Hyg 107: 373–382.
-
5.
Olliaro P , Torreele E , 2021. Managing the risks of making the wrong diagnosis: first, do no harm. Int J Infect Dis 106: 382–385.
-
6.
Levecke B , Coffeng LE , Hanna C , Pullan RL , Gass KM , 2021. Assessment of the required performance and the development of corresponding program decision rules for neglected tropical diseases diagnostic tests: monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs as a case study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 15: e0009740.
-
7.
Blok DA-O , de Vlas SJ , Geluk A , Richardus JA-O , 2018. Minimum requirements and optimal testing strategies of a diagnostic test for leprosy as a tool towards zero transmission: a modeling study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 12: e0006529.
-
8.
Mitchell D et al., 2018. A discrete event simulation model to assess the economic value of a hypothetical pharmacogenomics test for statin-induced myopathy in patients initiating a statin in secondary cardiovascular prevention. Mol Diagn Ther 22: 241–254.
-
9.
Lim YW et al., 2006. Reducing the global burden of acute lower respiratory infections in children: the contribution of new diagnostics. Nature 444 (Suppl 1 ):9–18.
-
10.
Dhillon RS , Kelly JD , Srikrishna D , Garry RF , 2016. Overlooking the importance of immunoassays. Lancet Infect Dis 16: 1109–1110.
-
11.
Frew E et al., 2021. A SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid diagnostic test for resource limited settings. Sci Rep 11: 23009.
-
12.
Mina MJ , Parker R , Larremore DB , 2020. Rethinking COVID-19 test sensitivity—a strategy for containment. N Engl J Med 383: e120.
-
13.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , 2022. Climate Data Online. Available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/. Accessed December 6, 2022.
-
14.
Wang Y , Perini T , Keskinocak P , Smalley H , Swann J , Weiss A , 2023. Evaluating the effectiveness of potential intervention methods for Guinea worm disease in dogs in Chad using simulations. Am J Trop Med Hyg 109: 835–843.
-
15.
Perini T , Keskinocak P , Li Z , Ruiz-Tiben E , Swann J , Weiss A , 2020. Agent-based simulation for seasonal Guinea worm disease in Chad dogs. Am J Trop Med Hyg 103: 1942–1950.
-
16.
WHO Collaborating Center for Dracunculiasis Eradication C , 2020. Guinea Worm Wrap-up #266. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
-
17.
Kim D , Pekgün P , Yildirim İ , Keskinocak P , 2021. Resource allocation for different types of vaccines against COVID-19: tradeoffs and synergies between efficacy and reach. Vaccine 39: 6876–6882.
-
18.
McDonald RA et al., 2020. Ecology of domestic dogs Canis familiaris as an emerging reservoir of Guinea worm Dracunculus medinensis infection. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 14: e0008170.
-
19.
WHO Collaborating Center for Dracunculiasis Eradication and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , 2022. Guinea Worm Wrap-up #291. Available at: https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/news/health_publications/guinea_worm/wrap-up/291.pdf. Accessed November 15, 2022.
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20.
WHO Collaborating Center for Dracunculiasis Eradication C , 2023. Guinea Worm Wrap-up #297. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
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21.
Rawla P , Jan A , 2023. Dracunculiasis. StatPearls. Treasure Island, FL: StatPearls Publishing.
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22.
World Health Organization , 2023. Call for Public Consultation—Target Product Profile for Diagnostic Test to Detect D. medinensis Infection in Animals and Target Product Profile for Diagnostic Test to Detect D. medinensis Presence in Environmental Samples. Available at: https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/call-for-public-consultation-tpp-for-diagnostic-test-to-detect-d.-medinensis-infection-in-animals-and-tpp-for-diagnostic-test-to-detect-d.-medinensis-presence-in-environmental-samples. Accessed October 28, 2023.
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Potential Impact of a Diagnostic Test for Detecting Prepatent Guinea Worm Infections in Dogs
Hannah Smalley
Hannah Smalley
H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia;
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Pinar Keskinocak
Pinar Keskinocak
H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia;
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Julie Swann
Julie Swann
H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia;
Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina;
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Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina;
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Christopher Hanna
Christopher Hanna
Global Project Partners, LLC, Elmhurst, Illinois;
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Adam Weiss
Adam Weiss
Guinea Worm Eradication Program, The Carter Center, Atlanta, Georgia
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ABSTRACT.
Chad has seen a considerable reduction in cases of Guinea worm disease (or dracunculiasis) in domestic dogs in recent years. Tethering of dogs and application of Abate® larvicide to water sources appear to have contributed to this progress, but with 767 reported dog cases in 2021, accelerating elimination of the disease in Chad may require additional tools. We investigate the potential benefits of a hypothetical diagnostic test that could be capable of detecting prepatent infections in dogs. We adapt an agent-based simulation model for forecasting the impact of interventions on guinea worm disease in dogs to examine the interaction of multiple test factors including test accuracy, when the test can detect infection, dog selection, and dog-owner compliance with tethering recommendations. We find that a diagnostic test could be successful if used in conjunction with existing interventions, and elimination can be achieved within 2 years with 80% or higher test sensitivity, 90% or higher specificity, systematic testing of each dog twice per year, and more than 90% long-term tethering compliance when a dog tests positive or a worm is emerging. Because of the long incubation period of Guinea worm disease (10–14 months) and the fact that no treatment exists, the benefits of the test rely on the testing rollout and response of dog owners. If the test could estimate the timing of worm emergence, long-term tethering could be eliminated and infected dogs could be tethered only when the worms are expected, minimizing the related resources (human and financial) to support the intervention.
- Supplemental Materials (PDF 1021.3 KB)
Author Notes
Financial support: This study was supported by a grant from the
Authors’ addresses: Hannah Smalley and Pinar Keskinocak, H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, E-mails: hannahsmalley@gatech.edu and, pinar@isye.gatech.edu. Julie Swann, H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, and Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, E-mail: jlswann@ncsu.edu. Christopher Hanna, Global Project Partners, LLC, Elmhurst, IL, E-mail: channa@gpppm.com. Adam Weiss, Guinea Worm Eradication Program, The Carter Center, Atlanta, GA, E-mail: adam.weiss@cartercenter.org.
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
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-
1.
Hopkins D , Weiss A , Yerian S , Sapp S , Cama V , 2022. Progress toward global eradication of dracunculiasis—worldwide, January 2021–June 2022. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 71: 1496–1502.
-
2.
World Health Organization , 2022. Dracunculiasis (Guinea-Worm Disease). Available at: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dracunculiasis-(guinea-worm-disease). Accessed January 8, 2024.
-
3.
Eberhard ML et al., 2014. The peculiar epidemiology of dracunculiasis in Chad. Am J Trop Med Hyg 90: 61–70.
-
4.
Hopkins DR , Weiss A , Torres-Velez FJ , Sapp SGH , Ijaz K , 2022. Dracunculiasis eradication: end-stage challenges. Am J Trop Med Hyg 107: 373–382.
-
5.
Olliaro P , Torreele E , 2021. Managing the risks of making the wrong diagnosis: first, do no harm. Int J Infect Dis 106: 382–385.
-
6.
Levecke B , Coffeng LE , Hanna C , Pullan RL , Gass KM , 2021. Assessment of the required performance and the development of corresponding program decision rules for neglected tropical diseases diagnostic tests: monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs as a case study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 15: e0009740.
-
7.
Blok DA-O , de Vlas SJ , Geluk A , Richardus JA-O , 2018. Minimum requirements and optimal testing strategies of a diagnostic test for leprosy as a tool towards zero transmission: a modeling study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 12: e0006529.
-
8.
Mitchell D et al., 2018. A discrete event simulation model to assess the economic value of a hypothetical pharmacogenomics test for statin-induced myopathy in patients initiating a statin in secondary cardiovascular prevention. Mol Diagn Ther 22: 241–254.
-
9.
Lim YW et al., 2006. Reducing the global burden of acute lower respiratory infections in children: the contribution of new diagnostics. Nature 444 (Suppl 1 ):9–18.
-
10.
Dhillon RS , Kelly JD , Srikrishna D , Garry RF , 2016. Overlooking the importance of immunoassays. Lancet Infect Dis 16: 1109–1110.
-
11.
Frew E et al., 2021. A SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid diagnostic test for resource limited settings. Sci Rep 11: 23009.
-
12.
Mina MJ , Parker R , Larremore DB , 2020. Rethinking COVID-19 test sensitivity—a strategy for containment. N Engl J Med 383: e120.
-
13.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , 2022. Climate Data Online. Available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/. Accessed December 6, 2022.
-
14.
Wang Y , Perini T , Keskinocak P , Smalley H , Swann J , Weiss A , 2023. Evaluating the effectiveness of potential intervention methods for Guinea worm disease in dogs in Chad using simulations. Am J Trop Med Hyg 109: 835–843.
-
15.
Perini T , Keskinocak P , Li Z , Ruiz-Tiben E , Swann J , Weiss A , 2020. Agent-based simulation for seasonal Guinea worm disease in Chad dogs. Am J Trop Med Hyg 103: 1942–1950.
-
16.
WHO Collaborating Center for Dracunculiasis Eradication C , 2020. Guinea Worm Wrap-up #266. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
-
17.
Kim D , Pekgün P , Yildirim İ , Keskinocak P , 2021. Resource allocation for different types of vaccines against COVID-19: tradeoffs and synergies between efficacy and reach. Vaccine 39: 6876–6882.
-
18.
McDonald RA et al., 2020. Ecology of domestic dogs Canis familiaris as an emerging reservoir of Guinea worm Dracunculus medinensis infection. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 14: e0008170.
-
19.
WHO Collaborating Center for Dracunculiasis Eradication and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , 2022. Guinea Worm Wrap-up #291. Available at: https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/news/health_publications/guinea_worm/wrap-up/291.pdf. Accessed November 15, 2022.
-
20.
WHO Collaborating Center for Dracunculiasis Eradication C , 2023. Guinea Worm Wrap-up #297. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
-
21.
Rawla P , Jan A , 2023. Dracunculiasis. StatPearls. Treasure Island, FL: StatPearls Publishing.
-
22.
World Health Organization , 2023. Call for Public Consultation—Target Product Profile for Diagnostic Test to Detect D. medinensis Infection in Animals and Target Product Profile for Diagnostic Test to Detect D. medinensis Presence in Environmental Samples. Available at: https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/call-for-public-consultation-tpp-for-diagnostic-test-to-detect-d.-medinensis-infection-in-animals-and-tpp-for-diagnostic-test-to-detect-d.-medinensis-presence-in-environmental-samples. Accessed October 28, 2023.
| Past two years | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 2291 | 2160 | 345 |
| Full Text Views | 235 | 230 | 34 |
| PDF Downloads | 64 | 56 | 13 |