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Confederal de Lepra de la República Argentina , 2017. Available at: https://www.argentina.gob.ar/noticias/referentes-de-todo-el-pais-se-reunieron-para-analizar-la-situacion-epidemiologica-de-la. Accessed May 17, 2022.
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Arnaiz MA, Iglesias MI, Arzamendia L, Franco JI, Santini MS, Recalde HC, 2021. Status and forecast of leprosy in the still endemic province of Formosa in northern Argentina. PLoS Neg Trop Dis 15: e0008881. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008881.
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Nong S, Chen Z, 2020. Whither the roads lead to? Estimating association between urbanization and primary healthcare service use with Chinese prefecture-level data in 2014. PLoS One 15: e0234081. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0234081.
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| Past two years | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 887 | 520 | 179 |
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Performance of the Health System Network in Formosa, Argentina, in the Diagnosis of Leprosy
María R. Arnaiz
María R. Arnaiz
Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigación en Endemo-epidemias, Buenos Aires, Argentina;
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Daniela Tobar Abarca
Daniela Tobar Abarca
Ecology Institute, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany;
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María S. Santini
María S. Santini
Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigación en Endemo-epidemias, Buenos Aires, Argentina;
CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
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CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
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José I. Franco
José I. Franco
Programa de Control de Lepra de Formosa, Dirección de Medicina Preventiva y Prestaciones Especiales, Ministerio de Desarrollo Humano, Formosa, Argentina;
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Lucila Arzamendia
Lucila Arzamendia
Programa de Control de Lepra de Formosa, Dirección de Medicina Preventiva y Prestaciones Especiales, Ministerio de Desarrollo Humano, Formosa, Argentina;
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Hugo C. Recalde
Hugo C. Recalde
Programa de Control de Lepra de Formosa, Dirección de Medicina Preventiva y Prestaciones Especiales, Ministerio de Desarrollo Humano, Formosa, Argentina;
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Octavio A. Bruzzone
Octavio A. Bruzzone
Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias de Bariloche (IFAB), Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria–Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas de Argentina (INTA-CONICET), San Carlos de Bariloche, Río Negro, Argentina;
CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
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CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
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ABSTRACT.
Leprosy is a chronic, neglected tropical infectious disease, currently endemic in Formosa, a province in northwestern Argentina. To analyze the performance, distribution, and effectiveness of the health system in leprosy diagnosis in Formosa, we estimated the trend of the number of new cases of leprosy diagnosed between 2002 and 2019 and estimated a forecast for 2022 at the primary health care centers (PHCCs) of at the first level of care (1stLC), at district hospitals (DHs) of the second level of care (2ndLC), high-complexity hospitals at the third level of care (3rdLC), and in rural and urban areas. The general trend was calculated based on the new cases detection rate (NCDR) using the autoregressive–moving average model (ARMA). The 1stLC, 2ndLC, and 3rdLC and the rural/urban variables were assessed using a proportional Bayesian trend ARMA (TrARMA) model. A predictive model was used for estimated forecasts. Markov-Monte Carlo chains were applied with A Metropolis-Hastings’s algorithm. The highest median proportion (Mp) of new cases of leprosy was diagnosed at the 2ndLC (Mp, 0.67; 97.5% credibility interval [CI] [0.56–0.77]), at the 3rdLC (Mp, 0.11; 97.5% CI [0.08–0.15]), and in urban areas (urban median proportion (uMp), 0.86; 97.5% CI [0.83– 0.88]), whereas the lowest proportion of new cases was diagnosed at the 1stLC (Mp, 0.082; 97.5% CI [0.061–0.108]) and in rural areas (rural median proportion (rMp), 0.13; 97.5% CI [0.11–0.16]). Our model predicts for 2022 that a median number of new cases of leprosy of 19.70 will be diagnosed in urban areas (97.5% CI [15.94–23.80]), and will continue to be diagnosed at the 2ndLC (median number of cases, 15.33; 97.5% CI [12.40–10.52]) and 3rdLC (median number of cases, 2.43; 97.5% CI [1.97–2.94]).
- Supplemental Materials (PDF 38 KB)
Author Notes
Financial support: This work was supported financially by a Salud Investiga Multicenter Study Grant (NRU: 2967), by Fondos concursables de la Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud (FOCANLIS, 2017) (NRU: 1738) and Centro de Diagnóstico e Investigación en Endemo-epidemias, CeNDIE, ANLIS Malbrán, Ministerio de Salud, Argentina.
Authors’ addresses: María R. Arnaiz, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigación en Endemo-epidemias, Buenos Aires, Argentina, E-mail: zarnaiz66@yahoo.com.ar. Daniela Tobar Abarca, Ecology Institute, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany, E-mail: danielatobarabarca@gmail.com. María S. Santini, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigación en Endemo-epidemias, and Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas de Argentina (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina, E-mail: mariasoledadsantini@gmail.com. José I. Franco, Lucila Arzamendia, and Hugo C. Recalde, Programa de Control de Lepra de Formosa, Dirección de Medicina Preventiva y Prestaciones Especiales, Ministerio de Desarrollo Humano, Formosa, Argentina, E-mails: joseismaelfranco@hotmail.com, lucyarzamendia@hotmail.com, and hcrecalde @yahoo.com.ar. Octavio A. Bruzzone, Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias de Bariloche (IFAB), Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria–Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas de Argentina (INTA-CONICET), San Carlos de Bariloche, Río Negro, Argentina, E-mail: okktawio@yahoo.com.ar.
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1.
Pescarini JM, Strina A, Nery JS, Skalinski LM, Freitas de Andrade KV, Penna MLF, Brickley EB, Rodrigues LC, Lima Barreto M, Oliveira Penna G, 2018. Socioeconomic risk markers of leprosy in high-burden countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 9: 12.
-
2.
Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) , 2017. Estrategia Mundial para la Lepra 2016‒2020: Acelerar la Acción Hacia un Mundo sin Lepra: Guía de monitoreo y evaluación. Available at: http://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/254907/9789290225874-sp.pdf;jsessionid=C84B68DEBF44C57224555E47146AEA82?sequence=11. Accessed May 17, 2022.
-
3.
Ministério da Saúde (Brasil) , 2010. Portaria n. 3125, de 07 de outubro de 2010. Aprova as diretrizes para vigilância, atenção e controle da hanseníase [portaria na internet]. Diário Oficial da União 2010. Available at: https://bvsms.saude.gov.br/bvs/saudelegis/gm/2010/prt3125_07_10_2010.html. Accessed May 17, 2022.
-
4.
World Health Organization , 2017. Global leprosy updates 2016: accelerating reduction of disease burden. Wkly Epidemiol Rec 92: 501–520.
-
5.
World Health Organization , 1991. World Health Assembly Resolution WH A44. 9 on Leprosy Geneva. Available at: https://www.who.int/neglected_diseases/mediacentre/WHA_44.9_Eng.pdf. Accessed April 7, 2021.
-
6.
Confederal de Lepra de la República Argentina , 2017. Available at: https://www.argentina.gob.ar/noticias/referentes-de-todo-el-pais-se-reunieron-para-analizar-la-situacion-epidemiologica-de-la. Accessed May 17, 2022.
-
7.
Constitución de la Provincia de Formosa, 1957. Art. 80 and 81. Available at: https://www.hcdn.gob.ar/export/hcdn/secparl/dgral_info_parlamentaria/dip/archivos/constitucion_formosa.pdf. Accessed May 17, 2022.
-
8.
Políticas de Salud de la Provincia de Formosa , 2011. Ministerio de Desarrollo Humano. Available at: https://www.formosa.gob.ar/modulos/acciones/templates/files/2011/ministerio_dh.pdf. Accessed April 7, 2021.
-
9.
García SF, 2014. Distritos Integrales de Salud Pública: Salud Públ México. Available at: https://www.saludpublica.mx/index.php/spm/article/view/4320. Accessed April 25, 2022.
-
10.
Programa para el Control de la Lepra en la provincia de Formosa , 1999. Ministerio de Desarrollo Humano. Provincia de Formosa. Actuación N 004.963-R-99. Resolution: N 00908.
-
11.
Arnaiz MA, Iglesias MI, Arzamendia L, Franco JI, Santini MS, Recalde HC, 2021. Status and forecast of leprosy in the still endemic province of Formosa in northern Argentina. PLoS Neg Trop Dis 15: e0008881. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008881.
-
12.
Nong S, Chen Z, 2020. Whither the roads lead to? Estimating association between urbanization and primary healthcare service use with Chinese prefecture-level data in 2014. PLoS One 15: e0234081. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0234081.
-
13.
Xu J, Mills A, 2017. Challenges for gatekeeping: a qualitative systems analysis of a pilot in rural China. Int J Equity Health 16: 106. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-017-0593-z.
-
14.
Red de Salud-Centros Asistenciales , 2020. Plan Nacer: Hospitalos y Centros de Salud. Available at: https://www.formosa.gob.ar/planacer/hospitalesycentros. Accessed April 25, 2022.
-
15.
Dirección de Estadística, Censos y Documentación. Gobierno de Formosa , 2020. Available at: https://www.citypopulation.de/php/argentina-formosa_s.php. Accessed November 23, 2022.
-
16.
Box G, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC, 1994. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 3rd edition. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
-
17.
Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Dunson DB, Vehtari A, Rubin DB, 2014. Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd edition. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall.
-
18.
Schwarz GE, 1978. Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann Stat 6: 461–464.
-
19.
Patil A, Huard D, Fonnesbeck CJ, 2010. PyMC: Bayesian stochastic modeling in Python. J Stat Softw 35: 1–81.
-
20.
Oliveira MAC, Pereira IC, 2013. Atributos essenciais da atencao primaria e a estrategia saude da familia. Rev Bras Enferm 66: 158–164.
-
21.
Gomes FBFF, Félix Lana FC, de Oliveira RC, Rodrigues RN, 2017. Indicators of leprosy in the state of Minas Gerais and its relationship with the municipal human development index and the coverage of the family health strategy. Rev Min Enferm, 21: e-1063. Available from: https://cdn.publisher.gn1.link/reme.org.br/pdf/en_e1063.pdfhttps://doi.org/10.5935/1415-2762.20170073.
-
22.
Figueiredo Vieira N, Moura Lanza F, Martínez-Riera JR, Nolasco A, Félix Lana FC, 2019. Orientación de la Atención Primaria en las Acciones contra la Lepra: Factores Relacionados con los Profesionales. Gac Sanit 34: 120–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gaceta.2019.02.011. Accessed May 17, 2022.
-
23.
Saunderson PR, Ross WF, 2002. Training for integration. Lepr Rev 73: 130–137.
-
24.
Faye O, Hay RJ, Ryan TJ, Keita S, Traore AK, Mahe A, 2007. Public health approach for leprosy detection based on a very short term-training of primary health care workers in basic dermatology. Lepr Rev 78: 11–16.
-
25.
Blanco DH, Ramírez L, 2016. El Sistema Urbano Primacial de la Provincia de Formosa. Evolución Poblacional de la Principales Urbes. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318842164. Accessed April 7, 2021.
-
26.
Lanza FM, Lana FCF, 2011. Decentralization of leprosy control actions in the micro-region of Almenara, State of Minas Gerais. Rev Latinoam Enferm 19: 187–194.
| Past two years | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 887 | 520 | 179 |
| Full Text Views | 261 | 200 | 0 |
| PDF Downloads | 63 | 4 | 0 |