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Zotero
EndNote
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Cluster Analysis of Dengue Morbidity and Mortality in Mexico from 2007 to 2020: Implications for the Probable Case Definition
Carlos M. Baak-Baak
Carlos M. Baak-Baak
Laboratorio de Arbovirología, Centro de Investigaciones Regionales “Dr. Hideyo Noguchi,” Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Mérida, Yucatán, México;
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Nohemi Cigarroa-Toledo
Nohemi Cigarroa-Toledo
Laboratorio de Biología Celular, Centro de Investigaciones Regionales “Dr. Hideyo Noguchi,” Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Mérida, Yucatán, México;
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Jose F. Pinto-Castillo
Jose F. Pinto-Castillo
Laboratorio de Geografía Ambiental, Instituto de Investigación en Gestión de Riesgos y Cambio Climático, Universidad de Ciencias y Artes de Chiapas, México;
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Rosa C. Cetina-Trejo
Rosa C. Cetina-Trejo
Laboratorio de Arbovirología, Centro de Investigaciones Regionales “Dr. Hideyo Noguchi,” Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Mérida, Yucatán, México;
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Oswaldo Torres-Chable
Oswaldo Torres-Chable
Laboratorio de Enfermedades Tropicales y Transmitidas por Vector, Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco, Villahermosa, Tabasco, México;
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Bradley J. Blitvich
Bradley J. Blitvich
Department of Veterinary Microbiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa
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Julian E. Garcia-Rejon
Julian E. Garcia-Rejon
Laboratorio de Arbovirología, Centro de Investigaciones Regionales “Dr. Hideyo Noguchi,” Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Mérida, Yucatán, México;
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ABSTRACT.
Dengue cases and deaths occur frequently in Mexico, although the trend is not uniform across the country. We performed a Spatio-temporal analysis of dengue cases and deaths in Mexico from 2007 to 2020, and clustered states according to whether there was a low, moderate, or high risk of dengue. A total of 501,600 confirmed dengue cases were registered from 2007 to 2020, with 378,122 cases classified as dengue fever (DF) and 123,478 cases classified as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). For each confirmed case, there were 4.68 probable cases. There were 1,230 dengue deaths, with highest numbers reported in 2009, 2012, 2013, and 2019. The number of deaths had a significant correlation (P ≤ 0.01) with DF (r = 0.82), DHF (r = 0.94), and probable dengue cases (r = 0.84). States were clustered using Machine Learning technique according to select indices associated with dengue. Cluster 1 (low risk) primarily contained states in the northwest, northcentral, and east. Cluster 2 (moderate risk) includes states in the northeast. Cluster 3 (high risk) mostly contained coastal states in the southeast, southwest, and west. The generation of the clusters was supported by the Kruskal–Wallis test. A significant difference was found in the incidence, mortality rates, and case-fatality rates of dengue among the clusters (P ≤ 0.01). Notably, cluster 3 contributed 71.4% of the confirmed cases and 89.2% of the deaths. Public health and vector control strategies designed to mitigate the burden of dengue in Mexico should consider the states in cluster 3 as high priority areas.
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Author Notes
Authors’ addresses: Carlos M. Baak-Baak, Rosa C. Cetina-Trejo, and Julian E. Garcia-Rejon, Laboratorio de Arbovirología, Centro de Investigaciones Regionales “Dr. Hideyo Noguchi,” Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Mérida, Yucatán, México, E-mails: carlos.baak@correo.uady.mx, rosa.cetina@correo.uady.mx, and julian.garcia@correo.uady.mx. Nohemi Cigarroa-Toledo, Laboratorio de Biología Celular, Centro de Investigaciones Regionales “Dr. Hideyo Noguchi,” Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Mérida, Yucatán, México, E-mail: nohemi.cigarroa@correo.uady.mx. Jose F. Pinto-Castillo, Laboratorio de Geografía Ambiental, Instituto de Investigación en Gestión de Riesgos y Cambio Climático, Universidad de Ciencias y Artes de Chiapas, México, E-mail: jose.pinto@unicach.mx. Oswaldo Torres-Chable, Laboratorio de Enfermedades Tropicales y Transmitidas por Vector, Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco, Villahermosa, Tabasco, México, E-mail: oswaldo.torres@ujat.mx. Bradley J. Blitvich, Department of Veterinary Microbiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, E-mail: blitvich@iastate.edu.
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1.
Gubler DJ , 2011. Dengue, urbanization and globalization: the unholy trinity of the 21st century. Trop Med Health 39 (Suppl): S3–S11.
-
2.
Guzman MG , Gubler DJ , Izquierdo A , Martinez E , Halstead SB , 2016. Dengue infection. Nat Rev Dis Primers 2: 1–25.
-
3.
Halstead SB , Nimmannitya S , Cohen SN , 1970. Observations related to pathogenesis of dengue hemorrhagic fever. IV. Relation of disease severity to antibody response and virus recovered. Yale J Biol Med 42: 311–328.
-
4.
Naghavi M et al., 2017. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 390: 1151–1210.
-
5.
PAHO , 2020. Epidemiological Update Dengue. Pan American Health Organization. Available at: https://www.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_docman&view= download&category_slug=dengue-2217&alias=51690-7-february-2020-dengue-epidemiological-update-1&Itemid=270&lang=en. Accessed July 23, 2020.
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7.
Undurraga EA et al., 2015. Economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 9: e0003547.
-
8.
WHO , 2009. Dengue: Guidelines for Diagnosis, Treatment, Prevention and Control. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization. Available at: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/44188/9789241547 871_eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. Accessed March 23, 2021.
-
9.
Dletz VJ , Gubler DJ , Rigau-Pérez JG , Pinheiro F , Schatzmayr HG , Bailey R , Gunn RA , 1990. Epidemic dengue 1 in Brazil, 1986: evaluation of a clinically based dengue surveillance system. Am J Epidemiol 131: 693–701.
-
10.
Rodrigues MBP , Freire HBM , Corrêa PRL , Mendonça ML , Silva MRI , França EB , 2005. Is it possible to identify dengue in children on the basis of Ministry of Health criteria for suspected dengue cases? J Pediatr (Rio J) 81: 209–215.
-
11.
Juárez JS , Soto PP , Bernuy GM , Alejo E , Valdivia MG , Cosser J , Vargas JH , 2005. Evaluación de la definición de caso probable de dengue clásico durante el brote de dengue en Lima, 2005. Rev Peru Med Exp Salud Publica 22: 205–211.
-
12.
Gutiérrez G , Gresh L , Pérez MÁ , Elizondo D , Avilés W , Kuan G , Balmaseda Á , Harris E , 2013. Evaluation of the diagnostic utility of the traditional and revised WHO dengue case definitions. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 7: e2385.
-
13.
Martínez RA , Díaz FA , Villar LA , 2005. Evaluación de la definición clínica de dengue sugerida por la Organización Mundial de la Salud. Biomédica 25: 412--416. https://doi.org/10.7705/biomedica.v25i3.1365.
-
14.
Nujum ZT , Thomas A , Vijayakumar K , Nair RR , Pillai MR , Indu PS , Sundar S , Gopakumar S , Mohan D , Sudheeshkumar TK , 2014. Comparative performance of the probable case definitions of dengue by WHO (2009) and the WHO-SEAR expert group (2011). Pathog Glob Health 108: 103–110.
-
15.
Pinto RC , De Castro DB , De Albuquerque BC , Sampaio VDS , Dos Passos RA , Da Costa CF , Sadahiro M , Braga JU , 2016. Mortality predictors in patients with severe dengue in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. PLOS ONE 11: e0161884.
-
16.
Moraes GH , Duarte EDF , Duarte EC , 2013. Determinants of mortality from severe dengue in Brazil: a population-based case-control study. Am J Trop Med Hyg 88: 670–676.
-
17.
Rigau-Perez JG , Laufer MK , 2016. Dengue-related deaths in Puerto Rico, 1992–1996: diagnosis and clinical alarm signals. Clin Infect Dis 42: 1241–1246.
-
18.
Nunes PCG , Daumas RP , Sánchez-Arcila JC , Nogueira RMR , Horta MAP , Dos Santos FB , 2019. 30 years of fatal dengue cases in Brazil: a review. BMC Public Health 19: 1–11.
-
19.
Dantés HG , Farfán-Ale JA , Sarti E , 2014. Epidemiological trends of dengue disease in Mexico (2000–2011): a systematic literature search and analysis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 8: e3158.
-
20.
Gaxiola-Robles R , Celis A , Serrano-Pinto V , De Orozco-Valerio MJ , Zenteno-Savín T , 2012. Mortality trend by dengue in Mexico 1980 to 2009. Rev Invest Clin 64: 444–451.
-
21.
Betanzos-Reyes ÁF , Rodríguez MH , Romero-Martínez M , Sesma-Medrano E , Rangel-Flores H , Santos-Luna R , 2018. Association of dengue fever with Aedes spp. abundance and climatological effects. Salud Publica Mex 60: 12–20.
-
22.
Hair GME , Nobre FF , Brasil P , 2019. Characterization of clinical patterns of dengue patients using an unsupervised machine learning approach. BMC Infect Dis 19 : 649.
-
23.
Sangkaew S , Tan LK , Ng LC , Ferguson NM , Dorigatti I , 2020. Using cluster analysis to reconstruct dengue exposure patterns from cross-sectional serological studies in Singapore. Parasit Vectors 13: 1–10.
-
24.
Alibuhtto MC , Mahat NI , 2018. Applications of partition-based algorithms for clustering dengue patients in Sri Lanka. Int J Adv Sci Res Eng Trends 3: 27–31.
-
25.
Shaukat K, Masood N, Shafaat AB, Jabbar K, Shabbir H, Shabbir S, 2015. Dengue fever in perspective of clustering algorithms. J Data Mining Genomics Proteomics 6: 1--5.
-
26.
GPC , 2016. Clasificación, Diagnóstico y Tratamiento Integral del Dengue. Resumen de Evidencias y Recomendaciones. Guía de práctica clínica, México, Secretaría de Salud de México. Available at: http://www.cenetec.salud.gob.mx/descargas/gpc/CatalogoMaestro/ 151_GPC_DENGUE/SSA_151_08_EyR_Dengue_170310.pdf. Accessed July 27, 2020.
-
27.
CONAPO , 2021. Proyecciones de la Población de México y de las Entidades Federativas, 2016–2050. Consejo Nacional de Población. Available at: https://datos.gob.mx/busca/ dataset/proyecciones-de-la-poblacion-de-mexico-y-de-las-entidades-federativas-2016-2050. Accessed March 18, 2021.
-
28.
Charrad M , Ghazzali N , Boiteau V , Niknafs A , 2014. Nbclust : an R package for determining the relevant number of clusters in a data set. J Stat Softw 61: 1--11. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v061.i06.
-
29.
Reynolds AP , Richards G , De La Iglesia B , Rayward-Smith VJ , 2006. Clustering rules: a comparison of partitioning and hierarchical clustering algorithms. J Math Model Algorithms 5: 475–504.
-
30.
Cigarroa-Toledo N et al., 2016. Chikungunya virus in febrile humans and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, Yucatan, Mexico. Emerg Infect Dis 22: 1804–1807.
-
31.
Guerbois M et al., 2016. Outbreak of Zika virus infection, Chiapas State, Mexico, 2015, and first confirmed transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in the Americas. J Infect Dis 214: 1349–1356.
-
32.
Puntasecca CJ , King CH , LaBeaud AD , 2021. Measuring the global burden of chikungunya and Zika viruses: a systematic review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 15: e0009055.
-
33.
Weaver SC , Charlier C , Vasilakis N , Lecuit M , 2018. Zika, chikungunya, and other emerging vector-borne viral diseases. Annu Rev Med 69: 395–408.
-
34.
Loroño Pino MA , Farfán Ale JA , Rosado Paredes EP , Kuno G , Gubler DJ , 1993. Epidemic dengue 4 in the Yucatán, México, 1984. Rev Inst Med Trop São Paulo 35: 449–455.
-
35.
Beatty ME et al., 2010. Best practices in dengue surveillance: a report from the Asia-Pacific and Americas dengue prevention boards. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 4: e890.
-
36.
Macías AE , Puentes-Rosas E , Velandia D , Morley D , Coudeville L , Baurin N , 2019. Real-world evidence of dengue burden on hospitals in Mexico: insights from the Automated Subsystem of Hospital Discharges (Saeh) database. Rev Invest Clin 71: 168–177.
-
37.
Sarti E , L’Azou M , Mercado M , Kuri P , Siqueira JB Jr , Solis E , Noriega F , Ochiai RL , 2016. A comparative study on active and passive epidemiological surveillance for dengue in five countries of Latin America. Int J Infect Dis 44: 44–49.
-
38.
Zavala-Castro JE , Dzul-Rosado KR , León JJA , Walker DH , Zavala-Velázquez JE , 2008. An increase in human cases of spotted fever rickettsiosis in Yucatan, Mexico, involving children. Am J Trop Med Hyg 79: 907–910.
-
39.
Phuong CXT , Nhan NT , Kneen R , Thuy PTT , Van Thien C , Nga NTT , Thuy TT , Solomon T , Stepniewska K , Wills B , 2004. Clinical diagnosis and assessment of severity of confirmed dengue infections in Vietnamese children: is the World Health Organization classification system helpful? Am J Trop Med Hyg 70: 172–179.
-
40.
Sawasdivorn S , Vibulvattanakit S , Sasavatpakdee M , Iamsirithavorn S , 2001. Efficacy of clinical diagnosis of dengue fever in paediatric age groups as determined by WHO case definition 1997 in Thailand. Dengue Bull 25: 56–64.
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