International Organization for Migration , 2021. World Migration Report 2020. Available at: https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/es. Accesed March 10, 2021.
National Institute for Statistics , 2019. Population Living in Spain at 01/01/2019. Available at: http://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/es/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736176951&menu= ultiDatos&idp=1254735572981. Accessed July 16, 2019.
Monge-Maillo B, López-Vélez R, Norman FF, Ferrere-González F, Martínez-Pérez Á, Pérez-Molina JA, 2015. Screening of imported infectious diseases among asymptomatic sub-Saharan African and Latin American immigrants: a public health challenge. Am J Trop Med Hyg 92: 848–856.
O’Brien DP, Leder K, Matchett E, Brown GV, Torresi J, 2006. Illness in returned travelers and immigrants/refugees: the 6-year experience of two Australian infectious diseases units. J Travel Med 13: 145–152.
Díaz-Menéndez M et al., 2012. Imported diseases by immigrants and travellers: results from the Cooperative Network for the study of imported diseases by immigrants and travellers +Redivi. Enferm Infecc Microbiol Clin 30: 528–534.
Salas-Coronas J, Cabezas-Fernández MT, Lozano-Serrano AB, Soriano-Pérez MJ, Vázquez-Villegas J, Cuenca-Gómez JA, 2018. Newly arrived African migrants to Spain: epidemiology and burden of disease. Am J Trop Med Hyg 98: 319–325.
McCarthy AE et al., 2013. Spectrum of illness in international migrants seen at geosentinel clinics in 1997–2009, part 2: migrants resettled internationally and evaluated for specific health concerns. Clin Infect Dis 56: 925–933.
Martelli G et al., 2017. Seroprevalence of five neglected parasitic diseases among immigrants accessing five infectious and tropical diseases units in Italy: a cross-sectional study. Clin Microbiol Infect 23: 335.e1–335.e5.
McLellan J, Gill MJ, Vaughan S, Meatherall B, 2020. Schistosoma and Strongyloides screening in migrants initiating HIV Care in Canada: a cross sectional study. BMC Infect Dis 28: 76.
Stano P et al., 2018. Epidemiological and clinical features of imported malaria at the three main hospitals of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia Region, Italy. Infect Dis Health 23: 17–22.
Norman FF et al., 2017. Imported malaria in Spain (2009–2016): results from the + REDIVI Collaborative Network. Malar J 16: 407.
Velasco M et al., 2020. Screening for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in immigrants and refugees: systematic review and recommendations from the Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology. Euro Surveill 25: 1900393.
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control , 2018. Public Health Guidance on Screening and Vaccination for Infectious Diseases in Newly Arrived Migrants within the EU/EEA.Stockholm, Sweden: ECDC.
Pottie K et al., 2011. Evidence-based clinical guidelines for immigrants and refugees. CMAJ 183: E824–E925.
Pottie K et al., 2017. Prevention and assessment of infectious diseases among children and adult migrants arriving to the European Union/European Economic Association: a protocol for a suite of systematic reviews for public health and health systems. BMJ Open 7: e014608.
Migrant Health Assessment Sub-committee of HPSC Scientific Advisory Committee , 2018. Infectious Disease Assessment for Migrants 2015. Available at: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-/specificpopulations/migrants/guidance/File,14742,en.pdf. Accesed January 8, 2018.
Flores-Chavez M, Fernández B, Puente S, Torres P, Rodríguez M, Monedero C, Cruz I, Gárate T, Cañavate C, 2008. Transfusional Chagas disease: parasitological and serological monitoring of an infected recipient and blood donor. Clin Infect Dis 46: 44–47.
Miguel-Oteo M, Jiram AI, Ta-Tang TH, Lanza M, Hisam S, Rubio JM, 2017. Nested multiplex PCR for identification and detection of human Plasmodium species including Plasmodium knowlesi. Asian Pac J Trop Med 10: 299–304.
de Andrés-Galiana EJ et al., 2015. On the prediction of Hodgkin lymphoma treatment response. Clin Transl Oncol 17: 612–619.
de Andrés-Galiana EJ, Fernández-Martínez JL, Luaces O, del Coz JJ, Huergo-Zapico L, Acebes-Huerta A, González S, González-Rodríguez AP, 2016. Analysis of clinical prognostic variables for chronic lymphocytic leukemia decision-making problems. J Biomed Inform 60: 342–351.
Cernea A et al., 2020. Robust pathway sampling in phenotype prediction. Application to triple negative breast cancer. BMC Bioinformatics 21 (Suppl 2 ):89.
Breiman L, 1996. “Bias, Variance, and Arcing Classifiers” (PDF). Technical Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2015-01-19. Accessed January 19, 2015.
Zhou Z-H, 2012. Ensemble Methods: Foundations and Algorithms. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 23. ISBN 978-1439830031.
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control , 2014. Assessing the Burden of Key Infectious Diseases Affecting Migrant Populations in the EU/EEA. Stockholm, Sweden: ECDC.
Rossi C, Schwartzman K, Oxlade O, Klein MB, Greenaway C, 2013. Hepatitis B screening and vaccination strategies for newly arrived adult Canadian immigrants and refugees: a cost-effectiveness analysis. PLoS One 8: e7854.
Requena-Méndez A, Bussion S, Aldasoro E, Jackson Y, Angheben A, Moore D, Pinazo MJ, Gascón J, Muñoz J, Sicuri E, 2017. Cost-effectiveness of Chagas disease screening in Latin American migrants at primary health-care centers in Europe: a Markov model analysis. Lancet Glob Health 5: e439–e447.
Pottie K et al., 2018. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in migrants in the EU/EEA: a systematic review. Int J Environ Res Public Health 15: 1700.
Greenaway C et al., 2018. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C screening for migrants in the EU/EEA: a systematic review. Int J Environ Res Public Health 15: 2013.
Soriano-Arandes A, Angheben A, Serre-Delcor N, Treviño-Maruri B, Gómez I, Prat J, Jackson Y, 2016. Control and management of congenital Chagas disease in Europe and other non-endemic countries: current policies and practices. Trop Med Int Health 21: 590–596.
Peiffer-Smadja N, Rawson TM, Ahmad R, Buchard A, Pantelis G, Lescure FX, Birgand G, Holmes AH, 2020. Machine learning for clinical decision support in infectious diseases: a narrative review of current applications. Clin Microbiol Infect 26: 584–595.
Pousibet-Puerto J, Cabezas-Fernández MT, Lozano-Serrano AB, Vázquez-Villegas J, Soriano-Pérez MJ, Cabeza-Barrera I, Cuenca-Gómez JA, Salas-Coronas J, 2019. Submicroscopic malaria in migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, Spain. Emerg Infect Dis 25: 349–352.
Gobbi F, Beltrame A, Buonfrate D, Staffolani S, Degani M, Gobbo M, Angheben A, Marocco S, Bisoffi Z, 2017. Imported infections with Mansonella perstans nematodes, Italy. Emerg Infect Dis 23: 1539–1542.
Requena-Méndez A, Aldasoro E, de Lazzari E, Sicuri E, Brown M, Moore DA, Gascon J, Muñoz J, 2015. Prevalence of Chagas disease in Latin-American migrants living in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 9: e0003540.
Schmunis GA, 2007. Epidemiology of Chagas disease in non-endemic countries: the role of international migration. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz 102: 75–85.
Gascón J, Bern C, Pinazo MJ, 2010. Chagas disease in Spain, the United States and other non-endemic countries. Acta Trop 115: 22–27.
Unidad de Vigilancia de VIH , 2020. ITS y hepatitis. Vigilancia Epidemiológica del VIH y sida en España 2019: Sistema de Información sobre Nuevos Diagnósticos de VIH y Registro Nacional de Casos de Sida. Plan Nacional sobre el Sida—D.G. de Salud Pública/Centro Nacional de Epidemiología—ISCIII. Madrid; November 2020.
Past two years | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
---|---|---|---|
Abstract Views | 1123 | 312 | 27 |
Full Text Views | 172 | 32 | 2 |
PDF Downloads | 166 | 28 | 2 |
Given the high prevalence of imported diseases in immigrant populations, it has postulated the need to establish screening programs that allow their early diagnosis and treatment. We present a mathematical model based on machine learning methodologies to contribute to the design of screening programs in this population. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional screening program of imported diseases in all immigrant patients who attended the Tropical Medicine Unit between January 2009 and December 2016. We designed a mathematical model based on machine learning methodologies to establish the set of most discriminatory prognostic variables to predict the onset of the: HIV infection, malaria, chronic hepatitis B and C, schistosomiasis, and Chagas in immigrant population. We analyzed 759 patients. HIV was predicted with an accuracy of 84.9% and the number of screenings to detect the first HIV-infected person was 26, as in the case of Chagas disease (with a predictive accuracy of 92.9%). For the other diseases the averages were 12 screenings to detect the first case of chronic hepatitis B (85.4%), or schistosomiasis (86.9%), 23 for hepatitis C (85.6%) or malaria (93.3%), and eight for syphilis (79.4%) and strongyloidiasis (88.4%). The use of machine learning methodologies allowed the prediction of the expected disease burden and made it possible to pinpoint with greater precision those immigrants who are likely to benefit from screening programs, thus contributing effectively to their development and design.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Financial support: This research received no specific grant from any funding agency, commercial or not-for-profit sectors. The corresponding author had full access to all the data in the study and takes responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.
Disclosure: J. A. B. reports grants from Seegene Company, HAIN Company, and, Cepheid and nonfinancial support to Congress Attendance from Werfen Company (Seegene Company distribution in Spain) outside the submitted work; A. G-P reports nonfinancial support from Amgen, Daiichi Sankyo, MSD, Pfizer, Gilead, Boehringer Ingelheim, and, Esteve to Congress Attendance outside the submitted work; F. V. reports personal fees and nonfinancial support from Werfen Company (Seegene Company distribution in Spain), BioMerieux, MSD, Roche, and, Pfizer; grants from Seegene, HAIN, and, Cepheid, outside the submitted work; A. R-G reports grants from Correvio, and non-financial support from Pzifer, MSD, and, Gilead, to Congress Attendance Support outside the submitted work; A. G-P reports nonfinancial support from Vitro S.A, to Congress Attendance Support outside the submitted work; J. L. F-M, E. de A-G, L. S., C. M., and, N. M-S have nothing to disclose.
Authors’ addresses: Juan L. Fernández-Martínez and Enrique de Andrés-Galiana, Group of Inverse Problems, Optimization and, Machine Learning, University of Oviedo, Calle San Francisco, Oviedo, Spain, E-mails: jlfmuniovi@gmail.com and ej.deandres@gmail.com. José A. Boga and Jonathan Fernández, Department of Microbiology, Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias, Oviedo, Spain, and Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Principado de Asturias, Oviedo, Spain, E-mails: joseantonio.boga@sespa.es and jofersua@hotmail.com. Luis Casado, Internal Medicine Department, Hospital de la Cruz Roja, Gijon, Spain, E-mail: legioxxi@yahoo. Candela Menéndez, Alicia García-Pérez, Noelia Moran-Suarez, and María Martinez-Sela, Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias, Oviedo, Spain, E-mails: candela1987@hotmail.com, apuali111@gmail.com, noemorsua@gmail.com, and minsela@gmail.com. Fernando Vázquez, Department of Microbiology, Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias (HUCA), Oviedo, Spain, and Departamento de Biología Funcional, Área de Microbiología, University of Oviedo, Asturias, Spain, E-mail: opsklins@gmail.com. Azucena Rodríguez-Guardado, Tropical Medicine Unit, Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias (HUCA), Oviedo, Spain, E-mail: azucenarodriguez@telecable.es.
International Organization for Migration , 2021. World Migration Report 2020. Available at: https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/es. Accesed March 10, 2021.
National Institute for Statistics , 2019. Population Living in Spain at 01/01/2019. Available at: http://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/es/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736176951&menu= ultiDatos&idp=1254735572981. Accessed July 16, 2019.
Monge-Maillo B, López-Vélez R, Norman FF, Ferrere-González F, Martínez-Pérez Á, Pérez-Molina JA, 2015. Screening of imported infectious diseases among asymptomatic sub-Saharan African and Latin American immigrants: a public health challenge. Am J Trop Med Hyg 92: 848–856.
O’Brien DP, Leder K, Matchett E, Brown GV, Torresi J, 2006. Illness in returned travelers and immigrants/refugees: the 6-year experience of two Australian infectious diseases units. J Travel Med 13: 145–152.
Díaz-Menéndez M et al., 2012. Imported diseases by immigrants and travellers: results from the Cooperative Network for the study of imported diseases by immigrants and travellers +Redivi. Enferm Infecc Microbiol Clin 30: 528–534.
Salas-Coronas J, Cabezas-Fernández MT, Lozano-Serrano AB, Soriano-Pérez MJ, Vázquez-Villegas J, Cuenca-Gómez JA, 2018. Newly arrived African migrants to Spain: epidemiology and burden of disease. Am J Trop Med Hyg 98: 319–325.
McCarthy AE et al., 2013. Spectrum of illness in international migrants seen at geosentinel clinics in 1997–2009, part 2: migrants resettled internationally and evaluated for specific health concerns. Clin Infect Dis 56: 925–933.
Martelli G et al., 2017. Seroprevalence of five neglected parasitic diseases among immigrants accessing five infectious and tropical diseases units in Italy: a cross-sectional study. Clin Microbiol Infect 23: 335.e1–335.e5.
McLellan J, Gill MJ, Vaughan S, Meatherall B, 2020. Schistosoma and Strongyloides screening in migrants initiating HIV Care in Canada: a cross sectional study. BMC Infect Dis 28: 76.
Stano P et al., 2018. Epidemiological and clinical features of imported malaria at the three main hospitals of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia Region, Italy. Infect Dis Health 23: 17–22.
Norman FF et al., 2017. Imported malaria in Spain (2009–2016): results from the + REDIVI Collaborative Network. Malar J 16: 407.
Velasco M et al., 2020. Screening for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in immigrants and refugees: systematic review and recommendations from the Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology. Euro Surveill 25: 1900393.
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control , 2018. Public Health Guidance on Screening and Vaccination for Infectious Diseases in Newly Arrived Migrants within the EU/EEA.Stockholm, Sweden: ECDC.
Pottie K et al., 2011. Evidence-based clinical guidelines for immigrants and refugees. CMAJ 183: E824–E925.
Pottie K et al., 2017. Prevention and assessment of infectious diseases among children and adult migrants arriving to the European Union/European Economic Association: a protocol for a suite of systematic reviews for public health and health systems. BMJ Open 7: e014608.
Migrant Health Assessment Sub-committee of HPSC Scientific Advisory Committee , 2018. Infectious Disease Assessment for Migrants 2015. Available at: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-/specificpopulations/migrants/guidance/File,14742,en.pdf. Accesed January 8, 2018.
Flores-Chavez M, Fernández B, Puente S, Torres P, Rodríguez M, Monedero C, Cruz I, Gárate T, Cañavate C, 2008. Transfusional Chagas disease: parasitological and serological monitoring of an infected recipient and blood donor. Clin Infect Dis 46: 44–47.
Miguel-Oteo M, Jiram AI, Ta-Tang TH, Lanza M, Hisam S, Rubio JM, 2017. Nested multiplex PCR for identification and detection of human Plasmodium species including Plasmodium knowlesi. Asian Pac J Trop Med 10: 299–304.
de Andrés-Galiana EJ et al., 2015. On the prediction of Hodgkin lymphoma treatment response. Clin Transl Oncol 17: 612–619.
de Andrés-Galiana EJ, Fernández-Martínez JL, Luaces O, del Coz JJ, Huergo-Zapico L, Acebes-Huerta A, González S, González-Rodríguez AP, 2016. Analysis of clinical prognostic variables for chronic lymphocytic leukemia decision-making problems. J Biomed Inform 60: 342–351.
Cernea A et al., 2020. Robust pathway sampling in phenotype prediction. Application to triple negative breast cancer. BMC Bioinformatics 21 (Suppl 2 ):89.
Breiman L, 1996. “Bias, Variance, and Arcing Classifiers” (PDF). Technical Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2015-01-19. Accessed January 19, 2015.
Zhou Z-H, 2012. Ensemble Methods: Foundations and Algorithms. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 23. ISBN 978-1439830031.
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control , 2014. Assessing the Burden of Key Infectious Diseases Affecting Migrant Populations in the EU/EEA. Stockholm, Sweden: ECDC.
Rossi C, Schwartzman K, Oxlade O, Klein MB, Greenaway C, 2013. Hepatitis B screening and vaccination strategies for newly arrived adult Canadian immigrants and refugees: a cost-effectiveness analysis. PLoS One 8: e7854.
Requena-Méndez A, Bussion S, Aldasoro E, Jackson Y, Angheben A, Moore D, Pinazo MJ, Gascón J, Muñoz J, Sicuri E, 2017. Cost-effectiveness of Chagas disease screening in Latin American migrants at primary health-care centers in Europe: a Markov model analysis. Lancet Glob Health 5: e439–e447.
Pottie K et al., 2018. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in migrants in the EU/EEA: a systematic review. Int J Environ Res Public Health 15: 1700.
Greenaway C et al., 2018. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C screening for migrants in the EU/EEA: a systematic review. Int J Environ Res Public Health 15: 2013.
Soriano-Arandes A, Angheben A, Serre-Delcor N, Treviño-Maruri B, Gómez I, Prat J, Jackson Y, 2016. Control and management of congenital Chagas disease in Europe and other non-endemic countries: current policies and practices. Trop Med Int Health 21: 590–596.
Peiffer-Smadja N, Rawson TM, Ahmad R, Buchard A, Pantelis G, Lescure FX, Birgand G, Holmes AH, 2020. Machine learning for clinical decision support in infectious diseases: a narrative review of current applications. Clin Microbiol Infect 26: 584–595.
Pousibet-Puerto J, Cabezas-Fernández MT, Lozano-Serrano AB, Vázquez-Villegas J, Soriano-Pérez MJ, Cabeza-Barrera I, Cuenca-Gómez JA, Salas-Coronas J, 2019. Submicroscopic malaria in migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, Spain. Emerg Infect Dis 25: 349–352.
Gobbi F, Beltrame A, Buonfrate D, Staffolani S, Degani M, Gobbo M, Angheben A, Marocco S, Bisoffi Z, 2017. Imported infections with Mansonella perstans nematodes, Italy. Emerg Infect Dis 23: 1539–1542.
Requena-Méndez A, Aldasoro E, de Lazzari E, Sicuri E, Brown M, Moore DA, Gascon J, Muñoz J, 2015. Prevalence of Chagas disease in Latin-American migrants living in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 9: e0003540.
Schmunis GA, 2007. Epidemiology of Chagas disease in non-endemic countries: the role of international migration. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz 102: 75–85.
Gascón J, Bern C, Pinazo MJ, 2010. Chagas disease in Spain, the United States and other non-endemic countries. Acta Trop 115: 22–27.
Unidad de Vigilancia de VIH , 2020. ITS y hepatitis. Vigilancia Epidemiológica del VIH y sida en España 2019: Sistema de Información sobre Nuevos Diagnósticos de VIH y Registro Nacional de Casos de Sida. Plan Nacional sobre el Sida—D.G. de Salud Pública/Centro Nacional de Epidemiología—ISCIII. Madrid; November 2020.
Past two years | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
---|---|---|---|
Abstract Views | 1123 | 312 | 27 |
Full Text Views | 172 | 32 | 2 |
PDF Downloads | 166 | 28 | 2 |