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Multi-Indicator and Multistep Assessment of Malaria Transmission Risks in Western Kenya
Guofa Zhou
Guofa Zhou
Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, California;
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Daibin Zhong
Daibin Zhong
Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, California;
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Ming-Chieh Lee
Ming-Chieh Lee
Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, California;
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Xiaoming Wang
Xiaoming Wang
Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, California;
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Harrysone E. Atieli
Harrysone E. Atieli
School of Public Health and Community Development, Maseno University, Kisumu, Kenya;
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John I. Githure
John I. Githure
International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research, Tom Mboya University College, Homabay, Kenya;
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Andrew K. Githeko
Andrew K. Githeko
Centre for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya;
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James Kazura
James Kazura
Center for Global Health and Diseases, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
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Guiyun Yan
Guiyun Yan
Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, California;
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ABSTRACT
Malaria risk factor assessment is a critical step in determining cost-effective intervention strategies and operational plans in a regional setting. We develop a multi-indicator multistep approach to model the malaria risks at the population level in western Kenya. We used a combination of cross-sectional seasonal malaria infection prevalence, vector density, and cohort surveillance of malaria incidence at the village level to classify villages into malaria risk groups through unsupervised classification. Generalized boosted multinomial logistics regression analysis was performed to determine village-level risk factors using environmental, biological, socioeconomic, and climatic features. Thirty-six villages in western Kenya were first classified into two to five operational groups based on different combinations of malaria risk indicators. Risk assessment indicated that altitude accounted for 45–65% of all importance value relative to all other factors; all other variable importance values were < 6% in all models. After adjusting by altitude, villages were classified into three groups within distinct geographic areas regardless of the combination of risk indicators. Risk analysis based on altitude-adjusted classification indicated that factors related to larval habitat abundance accounted for 63% of all importance value, followed by geographic features related to the ponding effect (17%), vegetation cover or greenness (15%), and the number of bed nets combined with February temperature (5%). These results suggest that altitude is the intrinsic factor in determining malaria transmission risk in western Kenya. Malaria vector larval habitat management, such as habitat reduction and larviciding, may be an important supplement to the current first-line vector control tools in the study area.
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Author Notes
Disclosure: The funder has no role in study design; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of data; writing of the report; or the decision to submit the report for publication. The datasets supporting the conclusions of this article are included within the article (and its additional files). Ethical clearance was obtained from the Ethical Review Committee of Maseno University, Kenya (MSU/DRPI/MUERC/00778/19), and the Institutional Review Board (IRB) of the University of California, Irvine, USA (HS# 2017-3512). Written consent was obtained from all adult participants. Written assent for children (< 18 years of age) was obtained from the participants and their parents or guardians. Inclusion criteria were provision of informed consent (assent for children) and no reported chronic or acute illness other than malaria. Exclusion criteria were unwillingness to participate in the study, reported chronic or acute illness other than malaria, or age < 6 months.
Financial support: This study is funded by the National Institutes of Health (R01 A1050243, D43 TW01505, and U19 AI129326).
Authors’ addresses: Guofa Zhou, Daibin Zhong, Ming-Chieh Lee, Xiaoming Wang, and Guiyun Yan, Program in Public Health, University of California at Irvine, Irvine, CA, E-mails: zhoug@uci.edu, dzhong@uci.edu, mingchi1@uci.edu, xiaomiw1@hs.uci.edu, and guiyuny@uci.edu. Harrysone E. Atieli, School of Public Health and Community Development, Maseno University, Kisumu, Kenya, E-mail: etemesi2012@yahoo.com. John I. Githure, International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research, Tom Mboya University College, Homabay, Kenya, E-mail: jgithure@gmail.com. Andrew K. Githeko, Centre for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya, E-mail: githeko@yahoo.com. James Kazura, Center for Global Health and Diseases, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, E-mail: jxk14@case.edu.
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1.
WHO , 2019. World Malaria Report 2019. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
-
2.
Nkumama IN , O’Meara WP , Osier FHA , 2017. Changes in malaria epidemiology in Africa and new challenges for elimination. Trends Parasitol 33: 128–140.
-
3.
Rabinovich RN et al. 2017. malERA: an updated research agenda for malaria elimination and eradication. PLoS Med 14: e1002456.
-
4.
Vitor-Silva S et al. 2016. Declining malaria transmission in rural Amazon: changing epidemiology and challenges to achieve elimination. Malar J 15: 266.
-
5.
WHO , 2018. Global Report on Insecticide Resistance in Malaria Vectors: 2010–2016. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
-
6.
WHO , 2015. Global Technical Strategy for Malaria 2016-2030. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
-
7.
WHO , 2017. A Framework for Malaria Elimination. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
-
8.
National Malaria Control Programme , 2018. Kenya Malaria Strategy 2019–2023. Nairobi, Kenya: Ministry of Health.
-
9.
Mutero CM , Kramer RA , Paul C , Lesser A , Miranda ML , Mboera LE , Kiptui R , Kabatereine N , Ameneshewa B , 2014. Factors influencing malaria control policy-making in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Malar J 13: 305.
-
10.
Zhou G , Lee MC , Githeko AK , Atieli HE , Yan G , 2016. Insecticide-treated net campaign and malaria transmission in western Kenya: 2003–2015. Front Public Health 4: 153.
-
11.
Cook J , Owaga C , Marube E , Baidjoe A , Stresman G , Migiro R , Cox J , Drakeley C , Stevenson JC , 2019. Risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum infection in the Kenyan highlands: a cohort study. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 113: 152–159.
-
12.
National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP), Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), and ICF International , 2016. Kenya Malaria Indicator Survey 2015. Nairobi, Kenya, and Rockville, MD: NMCP, KNBS, and ICF International.
-
13.
Degefa T , Yewhalaw D , Zhou G , Lee MC , Atieli H , Githeko AK , Yan G , 2017. Indoor and outdoor malaria vector surveillance in western Kenya: implications for better understanding of residual transmission. Malar J 16: 443.
-
14.
Ototo EN , Mbugi JP , Wanjala CL , Zhou G , Githeko AK , Yan G , 2015. Surveillance of malaria vector population density and biting behaviour in western Kenya. Malar J 14: 244.
-
15.
Wanjala CL , Mbugi JP , Ototo E , Gesuge M , Afrane YA , Atieli HE , Zhou G , Githeko AK , Yan G , 2015. Pyrethroid and DDT resistance and organophosphate susceptibility among Anopheles spp. mosquitoes, western Kenya. Emerg Infect Dis 21: 2178–2781.
-
16.
PMI , 2017. Kenya Malaria Operational Plan FY 2017. USAID, US President’s Malaria Initiative.
-
17.
PMI , 2018. Kenya Malaria Operational Plan FY 2018. USAID, US President’s Malaria Initiative.
-
18.
PMI , 2019. VectorLink Project Kenya, Annual Entomological Monitoring Report. October 2017–September 2018. Rockville, MD: The PMI VectorLink Project, Abt Associates Inc.
-
19.
Abong’o B et al. 2020. Impact of indoor residual spraying with pirimiphos-methyl (Actellic 300CS) on entomological indicators of transmission and malaria case burden in Migori county, western Kenya. Sci Rep 10: 4518.
-
20.
Killeen GF , Kiware SS , Seyoum A , Gimnig JE , Corliss GF , Stevenson J , Drakeley CJ , Chitnis N , 2014. Comparative assessment of diverse strategies for malaria vector population control based on measured rates at which mosquitoes utilize targeted resource subsets. Malar J 13: 338.
-
21.
Stevenson JC , Stresman GH , Baidjoe A , Okoth A , Oriango R , Owaga C , Marube E , Bousema T , Cox J , Drakeley C , 2015. Use of different transmission metrics to describe malaria epidemiology in the highlands of western Kenya. Malar J 14: 418.
-
22.
Zhou G , Afrane YA , Vardo-Zalik AM , Atieli H , Zhong D , Wamae P , Himeidan YE , Minakawa N , Githeko AK , Yan G , 2011. Changing patterns of malaria epidemiology between 2002 and 2010 in western Kenya: the fall and rise of malaria. PLoS One 6: e20318.
-
23.
Wanjala CL , Waitumbi J , Zhou G , Githeko AK , 2011. Identification of malaria transmission and epidemic hotspots in the western Kenya highlands: its application to malaria epidemic prediction. Parasit Vectors 4: 81.
-
24.
Bousema T et al. 2016. The impact of hotspot-targeted interventions on malaria transmission in Rachuonyo south district in the Western Kenyan highlands: a cluster-randomized controlled trial. PLoS Med 13: e1001993.
-
25.
Parselia E , Kontoes C , Tsouni A , Hadjichristodoulou C , Kioutsioukis I , Magiorkinis G , Stilianakis NI , 2019. Satellite earth observation data in epidemiological modeling of malaria, dengue and west Nile virus: a scoping review. Remote Sens 11: 1862.
-
26.
Bui QT , Nguyen QH , Pham VM , Pham MH , Tran AT , 2018. Understanding spatial variations of malaria in Vietnam using remotely sensed data integrated into GIS and machine learning classifiers. Geocarto Int 6049: 1300–1314.
-
27.
Solano-Villarreal E et al. 2019. Malaria risk assessment and mapping using satellite imagery and boosted regression trees in the Peruvian Amazon. Sci Rep 9: 15173.
-
28.
Giardina F , Franke J , Vounatsou P , 2015. Geostatistical modelling of the malaria risk in Mozambique: effect of the spatial resolution when using remotely-sensed imagery. Geospat Health 10: 232–238.
-
29.
Homan T et al. 2016. Spatially variable risk factors for malaria in a geographically heterogeneous landscape, western Kenya: an explorative study. Malar J 15: 1.
-
30.
Kabaria CW , Molteni F , Mandike R , Chacky F , Noor AM , Snow RW , Linard C , 2016. Mapping intra-urban malaria risk using high resolution satellite imagery: a case study of Dar es Salaam. Int J Health Geogr 15: 26.
-
31.
Valle D , Lima JM , 2014. Large-scale drivers of malaria and priority areas for prevention and control in the Brazilian Amazon region using a novel multi-pathogen geospatial model. Malar J 13: 443.
-
32.
Alimi TO , Fuller DO , Quinones ML , Xue RD , Herrera SV , Arevalo-Herrera M , Ulrich JN , Qualls WA , Beier JC , 2015. Prospects and recommendations for risk mapping to improve strategies for effective malaria vector control interventions in Latin America. Malar J 14: 519.
-
33.
Rijal KR et al. 2019. Micro-stratification of malaria risk in Nepal: implications for malaria control and elimination. Trop Med Health 47: 21.
-
34.
Taffese HS , Hemming-Schroeder E , Koepfli C , Tesfaye G , Lee MC , Kazura J , Yan G , Zhou G , 2018. Malaria epidemiology and interventions in Ethiopia from 2001 to 2016. Infect Dis Poverty 7: 103.
-
35.
Drakeley C et al. 2017. Longitudinal estimation of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in relation to malaria prevention measures in six sub-Saharan African countries. Malar J 16: 433.
-
36.
Zhou G , Afrane YA , Malla S , Githeko AK , Yan G , 2015. Active case surveillance, passive case surveillance and asymptomatic malaria parasite screening illustrate different age distribution, spatial clustering and seasonality in western Kenya. Malar J 14: 41.
-
37.
Zhou G , Wiseman V , Atieli HE , Lee MC , Githeko AK , Yan G , 2016. The impact of long-lasting microbial larvicides in reducing malaria transmission and clinical malaria incidence: study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial. Trials 17: 423.
-
38.
Lo E , Nguyen K , Nguyen J , Hemming-Schroeder E , Xu J , Etemesi H , Githeko A , Yan G , 2017. Plasmodium malariae prevalence and csp gene diversity, Kenya, 2014 and 2015. Emerg Infect Dis 23: 601–610.
-
39.
Gillies MT , Coetzee M , 1987. A Supplement to the Anophelinae of Africa South of the Sahara (Afro-Tropical Region), Vol. 55. Johannesburg, South Africa: South African Institute for Medical Research.
-
40.
Ndenga B , Githeko A , Omukunda E , Munyekenye G , Atieli H , Wamai P , Mbogo C , Minakawa N , Zhou G , Yan G , 2006. Population dynamics of malaria vectors in western Kenya highlands. J Med Entomol 43: 200–206.
-
41.
Munga S , Minakawa N , Zhou G , Githeko AK , Yan G , 2007. Survivorship of immature stages of Anopheles gambiae s.l. (Diptera: Culicidae) in natural habitats in western Kenya highlands. J Med Entomol 44: 758–764.
-
42.
Witten IH , Frank E , Hall MA , Pal CJ , 2016. Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Morgan Kaufmann Series in Data Management Systems), 4th edition. Cambridge, MA: Morgan Kaufmann.
-
43.
Abdi H , Williams LJ , 2010. Principal component analysis. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Comput Stat 2: 433–459.
-
44.
Jolliffe IT , Cadima J , 2016. Principal component analysis: a review and recent development. Phil Trans R Soc 374: 20150202.
-
45.
Kassambara A , 2017. Practical Guide to Principal Component Methods in R. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, Kindle online Edition.
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