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Associations between Public Awareness, Local Precipitation, and Cholera in Yemen in 2017

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  • 1 School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China;
  • | 2 Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
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In 2017–18, a large-scale cholera outbreak swept Yemen. We calculated the number of culture-confirmed cases from the suspected cases and diagnosis testing records. We estimate 184,248 confirmed cholera cases between April 2017 and the end of 2017, and the reproduction number of 2.2 with 95% CI of [2.1, 2.3] during the initial stage. We find a significantly (nonlinear) positive association between the reproduction number (Rt) and precipitation, explained 13% of transmissibility changes, with one unit (mm) increment in precipitation leading to an increment of 20.1% in Rt. We find a significantly (nonlinear) negative association between the Rt and cumulative Google Trends index (GTI), explained 62% of transmissibility changes, with one unit increment in cumulative GTI leading to a drop of 0.03% in Rt.

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Author Notes

Address correspondence to Shi Zhao or Daihai He, School of Nursing or Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China, E-mails: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com or daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk

Authors’ addresses: Shi Zhao, School of Nursing and Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China, E-mail: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com. Salihu S. Musa and Daihai He, Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China, E-mails: salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk and daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk. Jing Qin, School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China, E-mail: harry.qin@polyu.edu.hk.

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