ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1.
WHO, 2018. The Situation Reports of Weekly Cholera Bulletins, The News Focus of Yemen. The World Health Organization (WHO). Available at: http://www.emro.who.int/yem/yemeninfocus/situation-reports.html. Accessed November 29, 2018.
-
2.
Camacho A et al. 2018. Cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2016–18: an analysis of surveillance data. Lancet Glob Health 6: e680–e690.
-
3.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2018. The Cholera Diagnosis, Detection and Case Definition. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/cholera/diagnosis.html. Accessed November 29, 2018.
-
4.
WHO, 2018. The Policies of Cholera Diagnosis, Detection and Case Definition. The World Health Organization (WHO). Available at: http://www.who.int/cholera/technical/prevention/control/en/index1.html. Accessed November 29, 2018.
-
5.
The World Weather and Climate Information, 2018. The Climate and Average Weather in Yemen. The World Weather and Climate Information. Available at: https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-Rainfall-Temperature-Sunshine-in-Yemen. Accessed November 29, 2018.
-
6.
Google, 2018. The Google Trends Index of the Term “Cholera” (in English and Arabic) in “health” category in Yemen, from Jan 1 of 2017 to Jun 30 of 2018, the Google Trends webpage. Available at: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?cat=45&date=2017-01-01%202018-06-30&geo=YE&q=%D9%83%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7,%2Fm%2F024c2. Accessed November 29, 2018.
-
7.
Cori A, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Cauchemez S, 2013. A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. Am J Epidemiol 178: 1505–1512.
-
8.
Wallinga J, Teunis P, 2004. Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures. Am J Epidemiol 160: 509–516.
-
9.
Azman AS et al. 2014. Population-level effect of cholera vaccine on displaced populations, south Sudan. Emerg Infect Dis 22: 1067.
-
10.
He D, Wang X, Gao D, Wang J, 2018. Modeling the 2016–2017 Yemen cholera outbreak with the impact of limited medical resources. J Theor Biol 451: 80–85.
-
11.
Gormley M, 2018. Untangling the causes of the 2016–18 cholera epidemic in Yemen. Lancet Glob Health 6: e600–e601.
-
12.
Yang C, Wang X, Gao D, Wang J, 2017. Impact of awareness programs on cholera dynamics: two modeling approaches. Bull Math Biol 79: 2109–2131.
-
13.
Zhao S, Bauch CT, He D, 2018. Strategic decision making about travel during disease outbreaks: a game theoretical approach. J R Soc Interf 15: 20180515.
-
14.
Eichler M, 2012. Causal Inference in Time Series Analysis. Causality: Stat Perspectives Applications. Maastricht, Netherlands: School of Business and Economics, Maastricht University, 327–354.
-
15.
Granger CW, 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: J Econometric Soc 37: 424–438.
.png)
Associations between Public Awareness, Local Precipitation, and Cholera in Yemen in 2017
In 2017–18, a large-scale cholera outbreak swept Yemen. We calculated the number of culture-confirmed cases from the suspected cases and diagnosis testing records. We estimate 184,248 confirmed cholera cases between April 2017 and the end of 2017, and the reproduction number of 2.2 with 95% CI of [2.1, 2.3] during the initial stage. We find a significantly (nonlinear) positive association between the reproduction number (Rt) and precipitation, explained 13% of transmissibility changes, with one unit (mm) increment in precipitation leading to an increment of 20.1% in Rt. We find a significantly (nonlinear) negative association between the Rt and cumulative Google Trends index (GTI), explained 62% of transmissibility changes, with one unit increment in cumulative GTI leading to a drop of 0.03% in Rt.
- Supplemental Materials (PDF 141 KB)
Author Notes
Authors’ addresses: Shi Zhao, School of Nursing and Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China, E-mail: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com. Salihu S. Musa and Daihai He, Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China, E-mails: salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk and daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk. Jing Qin, School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China, E-mail: harry.qin@polyu.edu.hk.