1921
Volume 82, Issue 5
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645

Abstract

Abstract.

Plague, a life-threatening flea-borne zoonosis caused by , has most commonly been reported from eastern Africa and Madagascar in recent decades. In these regions and elsewhere, prevention and control efforts are typically targeted at fine spatial scales, yet risk maps for the disease are often presented at coarse spatial resolutions that are of limited value in allocating scarce prevention and control resources. In our study, we sought to identify sub-village level remotely sensed correlates of elevated risk of human exposure to plague bacteria and to project the model across the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda and into neighboring regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our model yielded an overall accuracy of 81%, with sensitivities and specificities of 89% and 71%, respectively. Risk was higher above 1,300 meters than below, and the remotely sensed covariates that were included in the model implied that localities that are wetter, with less vegetative growth and more bare soil during the dry month of January (when agricultural plots are typically fallow) pose an increased risk of plague case occurrence. Our results suggest that environmental and landscape features play a large part in classifying an area as ecologically conducive to plague activity. However, it is clear that future studies aimed at identifying behavioral and fine-scale ecological risk factors in the West Nile region are required to fully assess the risk of human exposure to .

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0737
2010-05-01
2017-09-23
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/14761645/82/5/904.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0737&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. Poland JD, Dennis DT, Dennis DT, Gage KL, Gratz N, Poland JD, Tikhomirov E, , 1999. Diagnosis and clinical manifestations. eds. Plague Manual: Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control. Geneva: World Health Organization, 4354.
  2. Campbell GL, Dennis DT, Fauci AS, Braunwald E, Isselbacher KJ, Wilson JD, Martin JB, Kasper DL, Hauser SL, Longo DL, Harrison TR, , 1998. Plague and other Yersinia infections. , eds. Harrison's Principles of Internal Medicine. New York: McGraw-Hill, 975980.
  3. Butler T, Greenough WB, Merigan TC, , 1983. Plague and other Yersinia infections. , eds. Current Topics in Infectious Disease. New York: Plenum, 7192.
  4. Dennis DT, Gage KL, Cohen J, Powderly WG, , 2003. Plague. , eds. Infectious Diseases. London: Mosby, 16411648.
  5. Dennis DT, Meier FA, Horsburgh CR, Nelson AM, , 1997. Plague. , eds. Pathology of Emerging Infections. Washington, DC: American Society for Microbiology Press, 2148.
  6. Garner JS, , 1996. Guideline for isolation precautions in hospitals. The Hospital Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 17: 5380.[Crossref]
  7. Begier EM, Asiki G, Anywaine Z, Yockey B, Schriefer ME, Aleti P, Ogden-Odoi A, Staples JE, Sexton C, Bearden SW, Kool JL, , 2006. Pneumonic plague cluster, Uganda, 2004. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 460467.[Crossref]
  8. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2009. Bubonic and pneumonic plague—Uganda, 2006. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 58: 778781.
  9. Ratsitorahina M, Chanteau S, Rahalison L, Ratsifasoamanana L, Boisier P, , 2000. Epidemiological and diagnostic aspects of the outbreak of pneumonic plague in Madagascar. Lancet 355: 111113.[Crossref]
  10. World Health Organization, 2006. Weekly epidemiological record. Wkly Epidemiol Rec 81: 397408.
  11. Levy CE, Gage KL, , 1999. Plague in the United States, 1995–1997. Infect Med 16: 5464.
  12. Poland JD, Barnes AM, Steele JH, , 1979. Plague. , ed. CRC Handbook Series in Zoonoses, Section A: Bacterial, Rickettsial and Mycotic Diseases. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 515559.
  13. Crook LD, Tempest B, , 1992. Plague. A clinical review of 27 cases. Arch Intern Med 152: 12531256.[Crossref]
  14. World Health Organization, 1983. International Health Regulations. First edition. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2629.
  15. World Health Organization, 2005. International Health Regulations. Second edition, Geneva: World Health Organization, 4346.
  16. World Health Organization. Human plague in 2002 and 2003. Wkly Epidemiol Rec 79: 301308.
  17. Eisen RJ, Enscore RE, Biggerstaff BJ, Reynolds PJ, Ettestad P, Brown T, Pape J, Tanda D, Levy CE, Engelthaler DM, Cheek J, Bueno R, Jr Targhetta J, Montenieri JA, Gage KL, , 2007. Human plague in the southwestern United States, 1957–2004: spatial models of elevated risk of human exposure to Yersinia pestis . J Med Entomol 44: 530537.[Crossref]
  18. Eisen RJ, Reynolds PJ, Ettestad P, Brown T, Enscore RE, Biggerstaff BJ, Cheek J, Bueno R, Targhetta J, Montenieri JA, Gage KL, , 2007. Residence-linked human plague in New Mexico: a habitat-suitability model. Am J Trop Med Hyg 77: 121125.
  19. Holt AC, Salkeld DJ, Fritz CL, Tucker JR, Gong P, , 2009. Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change. Int J Health Geogr 8: 38.[Crossref]
  20. Nakazawa Y, Williams R, Peterson AT, Mead P, Staples E, Gage KL, , 2007. Climate change effects on plague and tularemia in the United States. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 7: 529540.[Crossref]
  21. Neerinckx SB, Peterson AT, Gulinck H, Deckers J, Leirs H, , 2008. Geographic distribution and ecological niche of plague in sub-Saharan Africa. Int J Health Geogr 7: 54.[Crossref]
  22. Winters AM, Staples JE, Ogen-Odoi A, Mead PS, Griffith K, Owor N, Babi N, Enscore RE, Eisen L, Gage KL, Eisen RJ, , 2009. Spatial risk models for human plague in the West Nile region of Uganda. Am J Trop Med Hyg 80: 10141022.
  23. Neerinckx S, Bertherat E, Leirs H, , 2010. Human plague occurrences in Africa: an overview from 1877 to 2008. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 104: 197103.[Crossref]
  24. Kilonzo BS, , 1999. Plague epidemiology and control in eastern and southern Africa during the period 1978 to 1997. Cent Afr J Med 45: 7076.
  25. Orochi-Orach S, , 2002. Plague Outbreaks: the Gender and Age Perspective in Okoro County, Nebbi District, Uganda. Nebbe, Uganda: Agency for Accelerated Regional Development.
  26. Amatre G, Babi N, Enscore RE, Ogen-Odoi A, Atiku LA, Akol A, Gage KL, Eisen RJ, , 2009. Flea diversity and infestation prevalence on rodents in a plague-endemic region of Uganda. Am J Trop Med Hyg 81: 718724.[Crossref]
  27. Chu MC, , 2000. Laboratory Training Manual of Plague Diagnostics Tests. Atlanta: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Geneva: World Health Organization.
  28. Fielding AH, Bell JF, , 1997. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24: 3849.[Crossref]
  29. Akaike H, , 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Automat Contr AC- 19: 716723.[Crossref]
  30. Burnham KP, Anderson DR, , 2002. Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach. New York: Springer.
  31. Gage KL, Dennis DT, Gage KL, Gratz N, Poland JD, Tikhomirov E, , 1999. National health services in prevention and control. , eds. Plague Manual: Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control. Geneva: World Health Organization, 167171.
  32. Eisen L, Eisen RJ, , 2007. Need for improved methods to collect and present spatial epidemiologic data for vectorborne diseases. Emerg Infect Dis 13: 18161820.[Crossref]
  33. Eisen RJ, Eisen L, , 2008. Spatial modeling of human risk of exposure to vector-borne pathogens based on epidemiological versus arthropod vector data. J Med Entomol 45: 181192.[Crossref]
  34. Hopkins GH, , 1949. Report on Rats, Fleas and Plague in Uganda. Nairobi, Kenya: East African Standard, Ltd.
  35. Collinge SK, Johnson WC, Ray C, Matchett R, Grensten J, Cully JF, Gage KL, Kosoy M, Loye JE, Martin A, , 2005. Testing the generality of the trophic-cascade model for plague. EcoHealth 2: 102112.[Crossref]
  36. Enscore RE, Biggerstaff BJ, Brown TL, Fulgham RE, Reynolds PJ, Engelthaler DM, Levy CE, Parmenter RR, Montenieri JA, Cheek JE, Grinnell RK, Ettestad PJ, Gage KL, , 2002. Modeling relationships between climate and the frequency of human plague cases in the southwestern United States, 1960–1997. Am J Trop Med Hyg 66: 186196.
  37. Parmenter RR, Yadav EP, Parmenter CA, Ettestad P, Gage KL, , 1999. Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico. Am J Trop Med Hyg 61: 814821.
  38. Gage KL, Kosoy MY, , 2005. Natural history of plague: perspectives from more than a century of research. Annu Rev Entomol 50: 505528.[Crossref]
  39. Davis S, Begon M, De Bruyn L, Ageyev VS, Klassovskiy NL, Pole SB, Viljugrein H, Stenseth NC, Leirs H, , 2004. Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan. Science 304: 736738.[Crossref]
  40. Davis S, Trapman P, Leirs H, Begon M, Heesterbeek JA, , 2008. The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon. Nature 454: 634637.[Crossref]
  41. Cavanaugh DC, Marshall JD, Jr, 1972. The influence of climate on the seasonal prevalence of plague in the Republic of Vietnam. J Wildl Dis 8: 8594.[Crossref]
  42. Eisen RJ, Bearden SW, Wilder AP, Montenieri JA, Antolin MF, Gage KL, , 2006. Early-phase transmission of Yersinia pestis by unblocked fleas as a mechanism explaining rapidly spreading plague epizootics. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103: 1538015385.[Crossref]
  43. Eisen RJ, Gage KL, , 2009. Adaptive strategies of Yersinia pestis to persist during inter-epizootic and epizootic periods. Vet Res 40: 1.[Crossref]
  44. Akiev AK, , 1982. Epidemiology and incidence of plague in the world, 1958–79. Bull World Health Organ 60: 165169.
  45. Gratz N, Dennis DT, Gage KL, Gratz N, Poland JD, Tikhomirov E, , 1999. Control of plague transmission. , eds. Plague Manual: Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control. Geneva: World Health Organization, 97134.
  46. Mann JM, Martone WJ, Boyce JM, Kaufmann AF, Barnes AM, Weber NS, , 1979. Endemic human plague in New Mexico: risk factors associated with infection. J Infect Dis 140: 397401.[Crossref]
  47. Tikhomirov E, Dennis DT, Gage KL, Gratz N, Poland JD, Tikhomirov E, , 1999. Epidemiology and distribution of plague. , eds. Plague Manual: Epidemiology, Distribution, Surveillance and Control. Geneva: World Health Organization, 1137.
  48. Eisen RJ, Borchert JN, Holmes JL, Amatre G, Van Wyk K, Enscore RE, Babi N, Atiku LA, Wilder AP, Vetter SM, Bearden SW, Montenieri JA, Gage KL, , 2008. Early-phase transmission of Yersinia pestis by cat fleas (Ctenocephalides felis) and their potential role as vectors in a plague-endemic region of Uganda. Am J Trop Med Hyg 78: 949956.
  49. World Health Organization, 2006. International meeting on preventing and controlling plague: the old calamity still has a future. Wkly Epidemiol Rec 28: 279284.
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0737
Loading
/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0737
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Received : 08 Oct 2009
  • Accepted : 01 Feb 2010

Most Cited This Month

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error