1921
Volume 83, Issue 3
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645

Abstract

Abstract.

This study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1–4.5%) and 2.0% (95% CrI: 1.6–2.3%) for a 1°C increase in monthly average maximum temperature and a 10 mm increase in monthly average rainfall, respectively. A significant spatiotemporal variation and interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on RRV incidence were found. No association between Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) and RRV was observed. The transmission of RRV in Queensland, Australia appeared to be primarily driven by ecologic variables rather than social factors.

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  • Received : 14 Sep 2009
  • Accepted : 18 May 2010
  • Published online : 07 Sep 2010

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