Volume 82, Issue 6
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645



Definition of targets for vector control requires an understanding of the relationship between vector abundance and the intensity of arbovirus transmission. Using an extensive surveillance dataset with observations from sentinel chicken flocks and mosquito traps paired in time and space, hierarchical autoregressive logistic regression models were developed to predict the probability of seroconversion in chickens for western equine encephalomyelitis virus (WEEV) based on the relative abundance of the principal vector, After adjustments for confounders, the abundance of 29–42 d before the date of chicken sampling was credibly associated with the risk of WEEV transmission in both the Central and Coachella Valleys, and a doubling of relative abundance was associated with a 58% increase in the odds of seroconversion. The critical time windows identified in our study highlight the need for surveillance of vector populations and forecasting models to guide proactive vector control measures before the detection of transmission to sentinel chickens.


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  • Received : 13 Jun 2009
  • Accepted : 26 Feb 2010
  • Published online : 04 Jun 2010

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