1921
Volume 78, Issue 2
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645

Abstract

Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4°C for development of within the intermediate host snail (i.e., ), and a temperature of 5.8°C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0°C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9°C in 2030 and 1.6°C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.

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  • Received : 21 Apr 2007
  • Accepted : 02 Jul 2007

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