1921
Volume 75, Issue 3
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645

Abstract

It has been suggested that global warming may alter the frequency and transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. To test this claim for schistosomiasis, we conducted a time-series analysis from 1972–2002 for 39 of the 70 counties of Jiangsu province, eastern China, where is partially endemic. We used a modeling approach to estimate the annual growing degree-days (AGDD), employing a lower temperature threshold of 15.3°C. Our final model included both temporal and spatial components, the former consisting of second order polynomials in time plus a seasonality component, whereas the spatial trend was formed by second order polynomials of the coordinates plus the thin-plate smoothing splines. We found that temperature increased over the past 30 years in all observing stations. There were distinct temporal trends with seasonality and periodicities of 12, 6, and 3 months, whereas only marginal spatial variation was observed. The predicted AGDDs for 2006 and 2003 showed increases for the entire Jiangsu province, with the AGDDs difference between these two time points exhibiting an increase from north to south. Our data suggest that changes in temperature will alter the extent and level of schistosomiasis transmission, which is relevant for the control of in a future warmer China.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.549
2006-09-01
2017-09-20
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/14761645/75/3/0750549.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.549&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. Ward JV, Stanford JA, 1982. Thermal responses in the evolutionary ecology of aquatic insects. Annu Rev Entomol 27 : 97–117.
  2. Coops N, Loughhead A, Ryan P, Hutton R, 2001. Development of daily spatial heat unit mapping from monthly climatic surfaces for the Australian continent. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 15 : 345–361.
  3. Penûelas J, Filella I, 2001. Responses to a warming world. Science 294 : 793–795.
  4. Ramankutty N, Foley JA, Olejniczak NJ, 2002. People on the land: changes in global population and croplands during the 20th century. Ambio 31 : 251–257.
  5. McMaster GS, Wilhelm WW, 1997. Growing degree-days: one equation, two interpretations. Agr Forest Meteorol 87 : 291–300.
  6. Poethig RS, 2003. Phase change and the regulation of developmental timing in plants. Science 301 : 334–336.
  7. Singh J, Adams GP, 1998. Immunohistochemical distribution of follistatin in dominant and subordinate follicles and the corpus luteum of cattle. Biol Reprod 59 : 561–570.
  8. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, de Siqueira MF, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, van Jaarsveld AS, Midgley GF, Miles L, Ortega-Huerta MA, Peterson AT, Phillips OL, Williams SE, 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427 : 145–148.
  9. Cesaraccio C, Spano D, Duce P, Snyder RL, 2001. An improved model for determining degree-day values from daily temperature data. Int J Biometeorol 45 : 161–169.
  10. Malone JB, Zukowski SH, 1992. Geographic models and control of cattle liver flukes in the southern USA. Parasitol Today 8 : 266–270.
  11. Ollinger SV, Aber JD, Federer CA, 1998. Estimating regional forest productivity and water yield using an ecosystem model linked to a GIS. Landscape Ecol 13 : 323–334.
  12. Yang GJ, Zhou XN, Malone JB, McCarroll JC, Wang TP, Liu JX, 2002. Application of multifactor spatial composite model to predict transmission tendency of malaria at national level. Chin J Parasitol Parasit Dis 20 : 145–147.
  13. Harvell CD, Mitchell CE, Ward JR, Altizer S, Dobson AP, Ostfeld RS, Samuel MD, 2002. Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota. Science 296 : 2158–2162.
  14. Crowley TJ, 2000. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289 : 271–277.
  15. Huang SP, Pollack HN, Shen PY, 2000. Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature 403 : 756–758.
  16. IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  17. Haines A, Patz JA, 2004. Health effects of climate change. JAMA 291 : 99–103.
  18. McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S, 2006. Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet 367 : 859–869.
  19. Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rogers A, Hoorn SV, Murray CJL, and the Comparative Risk Assessment Collaborating Group, 2002. Selected major risk factors and global and regional burden of disease. Lancet 360 : 1347–1360.
  20. Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA, 2005. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438 : 310–317.
  21. Malone JB, Gommes R, Hansen J, Yilma JM, Slingenberg J, Snijders F, Nachtergaele F, Ataman E, 1998. A geographic information system on the potential distribution and abundance of Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica in East Africa based on Food and Agriculture Organization databases. Vet Parasitol 78 : 87–101.
  22. Malone JB, 2005. Biology-based mapping of vector-borne parasites by geographic information systems and remote sensing. Parassitologia 47 : 27–50.
  23. Malone JB, McNally KL, McCarroll JC, Corbett JD, Mkoji G, 2004. Modeling the biocoenose of parasitic diseases using remote sensing and geographic information systems. Parassitologia 46 : 59–61.
  24. Yang GJ, Vounatsou P, Zhou XN, Tanner M, Utzinger J, 2005. A potential impact of climate change and water resource development on the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in China. Parassitologia 47 : 127–134.
  25. Martens WJM, Jetten TH, Focks DA, 1997. Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming. Clim Change 35 : 145–156.
  26. Martens WJM, Jetten TH, Rotmans J, Niessen LW, 1995. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a global modeling perspective. Glob Environ Change 5 : 195–209.
  27. Zhou XN, Hu XS, Sun NS, Hong QB, Sun LP, Fuentes M, Malone JB, 1998. Application of geographic information systems on schistosomiasis surveillance: application possibility of prediction model. Chin J Schisto Contr 10 : 321–324.
  28. Zhou XN, Yang GJ, Sun LP, Hong QB, Yang K, Wang RB, Hua ZH, 2002. Potential impact of global warming on the transmission of schistosomiasis. Chin J Epidemiol 23 : 83–86.
  29. Utzinger J, Zhou XN, Chen MG, Bergquist R, 2005. Conquering schistosomiasis in China: the long march. Acta Trop 96 : 69–96.
  30. Zhou XN, Wang LY, Chen MG, Wu XH, Jiang QW, Chen XY, Zheng J, Utzinger J, 2005. The public health significance and control of schistosomiasis in China—then and now. Acta Trop 96 : 97–105.
  31. Mao CP, 1990. Biology of Schistosome and Control of Schistosomiasis. Beijing: People’s Health Press.
  32. Yang GJ, Vounatsou P, Zhou XN, Tanner M, Utzinger J, 2005. A Bayesian-based approach for spatio-temporal modeling of county level prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infection in Jiangsu province, China. Int J Parasitol 35 : 155–162.
  33. Hurvich CM, Tsai CL, 1995. Model selection for extended quasi-likelihood models in small samples. Biometrics 51 : 1077–1084.
  34. Findley DF, Monsell BC, Bell WR, Otto MC, Chen BC, 1998. New capabilities and methods of the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment program. J Bus Econ Stat 16 : 127–176.
  35. Easterling DR, Horton B, Jones PD, Peterson TC, Karl TR, Parker DE, Salinger MJ, Razuvayev V, Plummer N, Jamason P, Folland CK, 1997. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science 277 : 364–367.
  36. Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Barnett DN, Jones GS, Webb MJ, Collins M, Stainforth DA, 2004. Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430 : 768–772.
  37. Yu C, Zhang Z, Cong B, 1998. Global warming and communicable diseases. Chin J Epidemiol 19 : 114–117.
  38. Beck LR, Rodriguez MH, Dister SW, Rodriguez AD, Washino RK, Roberts DR, Spanner MA, 1997. Assessment of a remote sensing-based model for predicting malaria transmission risk in villages of Chiapas, Mexico. Am J Trop Med Hyg 56 : 99–106.
  39. Brooker S, Rowlands M, Haller L, Savioli L, Bundy DAP, 2000. Towards an atlas of human helminth infection in sub-Saharan Africa: the use of geographical information systems (GIS). Parasitol Today 16 : 303–307.
  40. Sun LP, Zhou XN, Hong QB, Huang YX, Yang GJ, Xi WP, Jiang YJ, 2003. Investigation on effectively growing degree days of cercaria of Schistosoma japonicum developing in snail. Chin J Zoonoses 19 : 59–61.
  41. Liang YS, Xiao RW, Song HT, 1996. Survival of O. hupensis in different latitude in China. Chin J Schisto Cont 8 : 259–262.
  42. Levin SA, 1992. The problem of pattern and scale in ecology. Ecology 73 : 1943–1967.
  43. Farina A, 2005. Principles and Methods in Landscape Ecology: Towards a Science of the Landscapes. London: Kluwer Academic.
  44. Gutzwiller KJ, 2002. Applying Landscape Ecology in Biological Conservation. New York: Springer.
  45. McMichael AJ, 2000. The urban environment and health in a world of increasing globalization: issues for developing countries. Bull World Health Org 78 : 1117–1126.
  46. Tareq SM, Tanoue E, Tsuji H, Tanaka N, Ohta K, 2005. Hydrocarbon and elemental carbon signatures in a tropical wetland: biogeochemical evidence of forest fire and vegetation changes. Chemosphere 59 : 1655–1665.
  47. Zhao GM, Zhao Q, Jiang QW, Chen XY, Wang LY, Yuan HC, 2005. Surveillance for schistosomiasis japonica in China from 2000 to 2003. Acta Trop 96 : 288–295.
  48. Yau P, Kohn R, 2003. Estimation and variable selection in non-parametric heteroscedastic regression. Stat Comput 13 : 191–208.
  49. Kaufman L, Rousseeuw PJ, 1990. Finding Groups in Data: An Introduction to Cluster Analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.549
Loading
/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.549
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Received : 19 Dec 2005
  • Accepted : 22 May 2006

Most Cited This Month

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error