1921
Volume 75, Issue 2_suppl
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645

Abstract

We predict the effects of introduction of a pre-erythrocytic vaccine against into a malaria-endemic population in Africa. We use a stochastic simulation model that includes components of transmission, parasitology, and clinical epidemiology of malaria and was validated using the results of field trials of the RTS,S/AS02A vaccine. The results suggest that vaccines with efficacy similar to that of RTS,S/AS02A have a substantial impact on malaria morbidity and mortality during the first decade after their introduction, but have negligible effects on malaria transmission at levels of endemicity typical for sub-Saharan Africa. The main benefits result from prevention of morbidity and mortality in the first years of life. Vaccines with very short half-life or low efficacy may have little overall effect on incidence of severe malaria. A similar approach can be used to make predictions for other strategies for deployment of the vaccine and to other types of malaria vaccines and interventions.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.111
2006-08-01
2017-11-19
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/14761645/75/2_suppl/0750111.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.111&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. World Health Organization, 1996. Investing in Health Research and Development. Geneva: World Health Organization. TDR/Gen/96.1.
  2. Ballou WR, Arevalo-Herrera M, Carucci D, Richie TL, Corradin G, Diggs C, Druilhe P, Giersing BK, Saul A, Heppner DG, Kester KE, Lanar DE, Lyon J, Hill AV, Pan W, Cohen JD, 2004. Update on the clinical development of candidate malaria vaccines. Am J Trop Med Hyg 71 (2 Suppl): 239–247.
  3. Alonso PL, Sacarlal J, Aponte J, Leach A, Macete E, Milman J, Mandomando I, Spiessens B, Guinovart C, Espasa M, Bassat Q, Aide P, Ofori-Anyinam O, Navia MM, Corachan S, Ceuppens M, Dubois MC, Demoitie MA, Dubovsky F, Menendez C, Tornieporth N, Ballou WR, Thompson R, Cohen J, 2004. Efficacy of the RTS,S/AS02A vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum infection and disease in young African children: randomised controlled trial. Lancet 364 : 1411–1420.
  4. Halloran ME, Watelet L, Struchiner CJ, 1994. Epidemiologic effects of vaccines with complex direct effects in an age-structured population. Math Biosci 121 : 193–225.
  5. Smith T, Killeen G, Maire N, Ross A, Molineaux L, Tediosi F, Hutton G, Utzinger J, Dietz K, Tanner M, 2006. Mathematical modeling of the impact of malaria vaccines on the clinical epidemiology and natural history of Plasmodium falciparum malaria: overview. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75 (Suppl 2): 1–10.
  6. Maire N, Smith T, Ross A, Owusu-Agyei S, Dietz K, Molineaux L, 2006. A model for natural immunity to asexual blood stages of Plasmodium falciparum in endemic areas. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75 (Suppl 2): 19–31.
  7. Ross A, Killeen G, Smith T, 2006. Relationships of host infectivity to mosquitoes and asexual parasite density in Plasmodium falciparum. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75 (Suppl 2): 32–37.
  8. Carneiro I, Smith T, Lusingu J, Malima R, Utzinger J, Drakeley C, 2006. Modeling the relationship between the population prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and anemia. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75 (Suppl 2): 82–89.
  9. Ross A, Maire N, Molineaux L, Smith T, 2006. An epidemiologic model of severe morbidity and mortality caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75 (Suppl 2): 63–73.
  10. Smith T, Ross A, Maire N, Rogier C, Molineaux L, 2006. An epidemiologic model of the incidence of acute illness in Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75 (Suppl 2): 56–62.
  11. Ross A, Smith T, 2006. The effect of malaria transmission intensity on neonatal mortality in endemic areas. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75 (Suppl 2): 74–81.
  12. INDEPTH Network, 2002. Population, Health and Survival at INDEPTH Sites. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada: International Development Research Centre.
  13. Tediosi F, Maire N, Smith T, Hutton G, Utzinger J, Ross A, Tanner M, 2006. An approach to model the costs and effects of case management of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75 (Suppl 2): 90–103.
  14. Maire N, Aponte J, Ross A, Thompson R, Utzinger J, Smith T, 2006. Modeling a field trial of the RTS,S/ASO2A malaria vaccine. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75 (Suppl 2): 104–110.
  15. Anderson RM, May RM, Gupta S, 1989. Non-linear phenomena in host-parasite interactions. Parasitology 99 (Suppl): S59–S79.
  16. Halloran ME, Struchiner CJ, Spielman A, 1989. Modeling malaria vaccines. II: Population effects of stage-specific malaria vaccines dependent on natural boosting. Math Biosci 94 : 115–149.
  17. Koella JC, 1991. On the use of mathematical models of malaria transmission. Acta Trop 49 : 1–25.
  18. Struchiner CJ, Halloran ME, Spielman A, 1989. Modeling malaria vaccines. I: New uses for old ideas. Math Biosci 94 : 87–113.
  19. Abeku TA, Hay SI, Ochola S, Langi P, Beard B, de Vlas SJ, Cox J, 2004. Malaria epidemic early warning and detection in African highlands. Trends Parasitol 20 : 400–405.
  20. Kleinschmidt I, Sharp B, Mueller I, Vounatsou P, 2002. Rise in malaria incidence rates in South Africa: a small-area spatial analysis of variation in time trends. Am J Epidemiol 155 : 257–264.
  21. Dye C, Hasibeder G, 1986. Population dynamics of mosquito-borne disease: effects of flies which bite some people more frequently than others. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 80 : 69–77.
  22. Trape JF, Rogier C, 1996. Combating malaria morbidity and mortality by reducing transmission. Parasitol Today 12 : 236–240.
  23. Marsh K, Snow R, 1999. Malaria transmission and morbidity. Parassitologia 41 : 241–246.
  24. Smith T, Charlwood JD, Kihonda J, Mwankusye S, Billingsley P, Meuwissen J, Lyimo E, Takken W, Teuscher T, Tanner M, 1993. Absence of seasonal variation in malaria parasitaemia in an area of intense seasonal transmission. Acta Trop 54 : 55–72.
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.111
Loading
/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.111
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Received : 18 Sep 2005
  • Accepted : 09 Feb 2006

Most Cited This Month

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error