1921
Volume 70, Issue 4
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645

Abstract

We developed a mathematical model of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) transmission predicting CL incidence based on field data of number of positive sand flies, new CL cases, and number of susceptible people. We estimated the following parameters: a CL incubation period of one month, the overall susceptibility (Φ = 0.793), the serologic force of infection (λ = 0.108 /person/year, SD = 0.014), the clinical force of infection (λ= 0.114/year), the proportion of infections that result in skin lesions (α = 1.056), and the instantaneous reversal rate of Montenegro skin test-positive (MST) people to MST (ρ= 0.124/year, SD = 0.021). We also provide the first field estimate of the transmission efficiency (ε = 0.0045, SD = 0.0009). The model predictions conform well with the observed new cases except for some small departures in the peaks and in some depressions (D = 0.1494, < 0.2). We discuss possible sources of error of our estimate of ε, and compare our parameter estimates with those obtained in Peru.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2004.70.373
2004-04-01
2017-09-20
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/14761645/70/4/0700373.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2004.70.373&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. Feliciangeli MD, Rodríguez N, Bravo A, Arias F, Guzmán B, 1994. Vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in north-central Venezuela. Med Vet Entomol 8 : 317–324.
  2. Correa MD, 1964. Trypanosomas encontrados en especies Panameñ as de Phlebotomus. Arch Med Panama 2–3 : 183–194.
  3. Williams P, 1970. Phlebotomine sandflies and leishmaniasis in British Honduras (Belize). Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 64 : 317–368.
  4. Young DG, Morales A, Kreutzer RD, Alexander JB, Corredor A, Tesh RB, Ferro de Carrasquilla C, de Rodríguez C, 1987. Isolation of Leishmania braziliensis (Kinetoplastida: Trypano-somatidae) from cryopreserved Columbian sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae). J Med Entomol 24 : 588–589.
  5. Feliciangeli MD, Reyes RM, Limongi JE, 1988. Natural infection of Lutzomyia ovallesi (Diptera: Psychodidae) with parasites of the Leishmania braziliensis complex in a restricted focus of cutaneous leishmaniasis in northern Venezuela. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz 83 : 393–394.
  6. Bonfante-Garrido R, Spinetti H, Cupillo E, Momen H, Grimaldi G Jr, 1991. Lutzomyia ovallesi (Diptera, Psychodidae) as a vector of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Venezuela. Parassitologia 33 (suppl 1): 99–104.
  7. Feliciangeli MD, 1991. Vectors of leishmaniasis in Venezuela. Parassitologia 33 (suppl 1) : 229–236.
  8. Villaseca P, Llanos-Cuentas A, Perez E, Davies CR, 1993. A comparative field study of the relative importance of Lutzomyia peruensis and Lutzomyia verrucarum as vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Peruvian Andes. Am J Trop Med Hyg 49 : 260–269.
  9. Feliciangeli MD, Rabinovich JE, 1998. A population study of indoor Lutzomyia ovallesi and Lutzomyia gomezi (Diptera: Psychodidae), their relative vectorial importance and their association with incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in north-central Venezuela. Med Vet Entomol 12 : 121–131.
  10. Davies CR, Llanos-Cuentas A, Pyke SDM, Dye C, 1995. Cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Peruvian Andes: an epidemiological study of infection and immunity. Epidemiol Infect 114 : 297–318.
  11. Davies CR, Lane R, Villaseca P, Pyke S, Campos P, Llanos-Cuentas A, 1995. The relationship, between CDC light-trap and human-bait catches of endophagic sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the Peruvian Andes. Med Vet Entomol 9 : 241–248.
  12. Rowton E, de Mata M, Rizzo N, Navin T, Porter C, 1991. Vectors of Leishmania braziliensis in the Peten, Guatemala. Parassitologia 33 (suppl 1): 501–504.
  13. Rey L, 1973. Parasitología. Rio de Janeiro: Editora Guanabara Koogan SA.
  14. Pessoa SB, Martins AV, 1974. Parasitología Médica. Rio de Janeiro : Editora Guanabara Koogan SA.
  15. Ewel JJ, Madriz A, 1968. Zonas de Vida de Venezuela. Memoria Explicativa Sobre el Mapa Ecológico. Caracas: Editorial Sucre.
  16. Huber O, Alarcón C, 1995. Mapa de Vegetacin de Venezuela, Escala 1:2.000.000. Ministerio del Ambiente y de los Recursos Naturales Renovables. Caracas: Oscar Todtmann Editores SA.
  17. OCEI, (Oficina Central de Estadística e Informática), 1991. Censo 1990. Caracas: Gobierno de Venezuela.
  18. O’Daly JA, Spinetti H, Rodríguez MB, Acuña L, García P, Castillo LM, Ovalles T, Zambrano L, Yánez A, Iannello JG, García R, Papapietro A, Zamora C, Salinas O, 1995. Proteínas de amastigotes de varias especies de leishmanias protegen a seres humanos contra la leishmaniasis en el área endémica de Guatire, Estado Miranda, Venezuela. Gac Med 103 : 133–177.
  19. Feliciangeli MD, Arredondo C, Ward R, 1992. Phlebotomine sandflies in Venezuela: review of the verrucarum species group (in part) of Lutzomyia (Diptera: Psychodidae) with description of a new species from Lara. J Med Entomol 29 : 729–744.
  20. Williams BG, Dye C, 1994. Maximum likelihood for parasitologists. Parasitol Today 10 : 489–493.
  21. Hartley HO, 1958. Maximum likelihood estimation from incomplete data. Biometrics 14 : 174–194.
  22. Feliciangeli MD, 1997. Hourly activity of Lutzomyia ovallesi and L. gomezi (Diptera: Psychodidae), vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in northcentral Venezuela. J Med Entomol 34 : 110–115.
  23. Feliciangeli MD, 1987. Ecology of sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a restricted focus of cutaneous leishmaniasis in northern Venezuela. I. Description of the study area, catching methods and species composition. Mem Instit Oswaldo Cruz 82 : 119–124.
  24. Feliciangeli MD, 1987b. Ecology of sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a restricted focus cutaneous leishmaniasis in northern Venezuela. II. Species composition in relation to habitat, catching method and hour of catching. Mem Instit Oswaldo Cruz 82 : 125–131.
  25. Lysenko AJ, Beljaev AE, 1987. Quantitative approaches to epidemiology. Peters W, Killick-Kendrick B, eds. The Leishmaniases. Volume 1. London: Academic Press, 263–290.
  26. Daykin CD, Pentikäinen T, Pesonen MI, 1994. Practical Risk Theory for Actuaries. London: Chapman and Hall.
  27. Perez JE, Ogusuku E, Inga R, Lopez M, Monje J, Paz L, Nieto E, Arevalo J, Guerra H, 1994. Natural Leishmania infection of Lutzomyia spp. in Peru. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 88 : 161–164.
  28. Gomez EAL, Hashiguchi Y, 1991. Monthly variation in natural infection of the sandfly Lutzomyia ayacuchensis with Leishmania mexicana in an endemic focus in the Ecuadorian Andes. Ann Trop Med Parasitol 85 : 407–411.
  29. Davies CR, Llanos-Cuentas A, Campos P, Monge J, Villaseca P, Dye C, 1997. Cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Peruvian Andes: risk factors identified from a village cohort study. Am J Trop Med Hyg 56 : 85–95.
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2004.70.373
Loading
/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.2004.70.373
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Received : 25 Sep 2003
  • Accepted : 08 Dec 2003

Most Cited This Month

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error