Volume 70, Issue 2
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645


The distribution of the complex of malaria vectors in Africa is uncertain due to under-sampling of vast regions. We use ecologic niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of three members of the complex (, , and ) and demonstrate the statistical significance of the models. Predictions correspond well to previous estimates, but provide detail regarding spatial discontinuities in the distribution of s.s. that are consistent with population genetic studies. Our predictions also identify large areas of Africa where the presence of is predicted, but few specimens have been obtained, suggesting under-sampling of the species. Finally, we project models developed from African distribution data for the late 1900s into the past and to South America to determine retrospectively whether the deadly 1929 introduction of into Brazil was more likely that of or .


Article metrics loading...

The graphs shown below represent data from March 2017
Loading full text...

Full text loading...



  1. Davidson G, Paterson HE, Coluzzi M, Mason GF, Micks DW, 1967. The Anopheles gambiae Complex. Wright JW, Pal R, eds. Genetics of Insect Vectors of Disease. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 211–250.
  2. Hunt RH, Coetzee M, Fettene M, 1998. The Anopheles gambiae complex: a new species from Ethiopia. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 92 : 231–235. [Google Scholar]
  3. Breman JG, Egan A, Keusch GT, 2001. The intolerable burden of malaria: a new look at the numbers. Am J Trop Med Hyg 64 (suppl): iv–vii. [Google Scholar]
  4. White GB, 1974. Anopheles gambiae complex and disease transmission in Africa. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 68 : 278–298. [Google Scholar]
  5. Lindsay SW, Parson L, Thomas CJ, 1998. Mapping the ranges and relative abundance of the two principal African malaria vectors, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis, using climate data. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 265 : 847–854. [Google Scholar]
  6. Coetzee M, Craig M, le Sueur D, 2000. Distribution of African malaria mosquitoes belonging to the Anopheles gambiae complex. Parasitol Today 16 : 74–77. [Google Scholar]
  7. Peterson AT, Vieglais DA, 2001. Predicting species invasions using ecological niche modeling: new approaches from bioinformatics attack a pressing problem. BioScience 51 : 363–371. [Google Scholar]
  8. Coluzzi M, Sabatini A, Petrarca V, Di Deco MA, 1979. Chromosomal differentiation and adaptation to human environments in the Anopheles gambiae complex. Trans R Soc Trop Med H 73 : 483–497. [Google Scholar]
  9. Toure YT, Petrarca V, Traore SF, Coulibaly A, Maiga HM, Sankare O, Sow M, Di Deco MA, Coluzzi M, 1998. The distribution and inversion polymorphism of chromosomally recognized taxa of the Anopheles gambiae complex in Mali, West Africa. Parassitologia 40 : 477–511. [Google Scholar]
  10. Rogers DJ, Randolph SE, Snow RW, Hay SI, 2002. Satellite imagery in the study and forecast of malaria. Nature 415 : 710–715. [Google Scholar]
  11. Stockwell DRB, Peters D, 1999. The GARP modelling system: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 13 : 143–158. [Google Scholar]
  12. Peterson AT, Ball LG, Cohoon KP, 2002. Predicting distributions of Mexican birds using ecological niche modelling methods. Ibis 144 : E27–E32. [Google Scholar]
  13. Anderson RP, Lew D, Peterson AT, 2003. Evaluating predictive models of species’ distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models. Ecol Model 162 : 211–232. [Google Scholar]
  14. Peterson AT, 2001. Predicting species’ geographic distributions based on ecological niche modeling. The Condor 103 : 599–605. [Google Scholar]
  15. White GB, 1989. Malaria. Geographical Distribution of Arthropod-Borne Diseases and their Principal Vectors. Geneva: World Health Organization, WHO/VBC, 7–22.
  16. Lehmann T, Hawley WA, Grebert H, Danga M, Atieli F, Collins FH, 1999. The Rift Valley complex as a barrier to gene flow for Anopheles gambiae in Kenya. J Hered 90 : 613–621. [Google Scholar]
  17. SAS OnlineDoc, (rtm), 2002. Cary, NC: SAS Institute, Inc.
  18. Soper FL, Wilson DB, 1943. Anopheles gambiae in Brazil: 1930 to 1940. New York: The Rockefeller Foundation.
  19. Petrarca V, Vercruysse J, Coluzzi M, 1987. Observations on t he Anopheles gambiae complex in the Senegal River Basin. West Afr Med Vet Entomol 1 : 303–312. [Google Scholar]
  20. Peterson AT, Sanchez-Cordero V, Beard CB, Ramsey JM, 2002. Ecologic niche modeling and potential reservoirs for Chagas disease, Mexico. Emerg Infect Dis 8 : 662–667. [Google Scholar]
  21. Peterson AT, Ortega-Huerta MA, Bartley J, Sanchez-Cordero V, Soberon J, Buddemeier RH, Stockwell DR, 2002. Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature 416 : 626–629. [Google Scholar]

Data & Media loading...

  • Received : 14 Apr 2003
  • Accepted : 05 Jul 2003

Most Cited This Month

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error