1921
Volume 97, Issue 2
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645

Abstract

Abstract.

The purpose of this study is to characterize spatiotemporal heterogeneities in malaria distribution at a provincial level and investigate the association between malaria incidence and climate factors from 2004 to 2014 in China to inform current malaria control efforts. National malaria incidence peaked (4.6/100,000) in 2006 and decreased to a very low level (0.21/100,000) in 2014, and the proportion of imported cases increased from 16.2% in 2004 to 98.2% in 2014. Statistical analyses of global and local spatial autocorrelations and purely spatial scan statistics revealed that malaria was localized in Hainan, Anhui, and Yunnan during 2004–2009 and then gradually shifted and clustered in Yunnan after 2010. Purely temporal clusters shortened to less than 5 months during 2012–2014. The two most likely clusters detected using spatiotemporal analysis occurred in Anhui between July 2005 and November 2007 and Yunnan between January 2010 and June 2012. Correlation coefficients for the association between malaria incidence and climate factors sharply decreased after 2010, and there were zero-month lag effects for climate factors during 2010–2014. Overall, the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria in China changed from relatively scattered (2004–2009) to relatively clustered (2010–2014). As the proportion of imported cases increased, the effect of climate factors on malaria incidence has gradually become weaker since 2011. Therefore, new warning systems should be applied to monitor resurgence and outbreaks of malaria in mainland China, and quarantine at borders should be reinforced to control the increasingly trend of imported malaria cases.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.16-0711
2017-08-02
2018-09-23
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/14761645/97/2/tpmd160711.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.16-0711&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. World Health Organization, 2014. World Malaria Report 2014. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO. Available at: http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/world_malaria_report_2014/en/. Accessed April 18, 2017.
  2. World Health Organization, 2015. Global Technical Strategy for Malaria 2016–2030. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO. Available at: http://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/WHA68/A68_R2-en.pdf?ua=1. Accessed April 19, 2017.
  3. China Minstery of Health, 2010. Action plan of China malaria elimination (2010–2020). Available at: http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/471029/25390656/1409634767923/China+Action+Plan+of+Chin. Accessed April 18, 2017.
  4. Zhou SS, Wang Y, Tang LH, , 2007. Malaria situation in the People’s Republic of China in 2006. Zhongguo Ji Sheng Chong Xue Yu Ji Sheng Chong Bing Za Zhi 25: 439441.
  5. China Ministry of Health, 2006. National Malaria Control Programme (2006–2015). Available at: http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/bgt/pw10603/200605/e22e4e380a7443109b85b23fabdd1130.shtml. Accessed April 18, 2017.
  6. Feng J, Xiao H, Xia Z, Zhang L, Xiao N, , 2015. Analysis of malaria epidemiological characteristics in the People’s Republic of China, 2004–2013. Am J Trop Med Hyg 93: 293299.[Crossref]
  7. Fang L, Yan L, Liang S, de Vlas SJ, Feng D, Han X, Zhao W, Xu B, Bian L, Yang H, Gong P, Richardus JH, Cao W, , 2006. Spatial analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China. BMC Infect Dis 6: 77.[Crossref]
  8. Hinman SE, Blackburn JK, Curtis A, , 2006. Spatial and temporal structure of typhoid outbreaks in Washington, D.C., 1906–1909: evaluating local clustering with the Gi* statistic. Int J Health Geogr 5: 13.[Crossref]
  9. Tsai PJ, Lin ML, Chu CM, Perng CH, , 2009. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of health care hotspots in Taiwan in 2006. BMC Public Health 9: 464.[Crossref]
  10. Yang GJ, Tanner M, Utzinger J, Malone JB, Bergquist R, Chan EY, Qi G, Zhou XN, , 2012. Malaria surveillance-response strategies in different transmission zones of the People’s Republic of China: preparing for climate change. Malar J 11: 19.[Crossref]
  11. Mabaso ML, Vounatsou P, Midzi S, Da Silva J, Smith T, , 2006. Spatio-temporal analysis of the role of climate in inter-annual variation of malaria incidence in Zimbabwe. Int J Health Geogr 5: 20.[Crossref]
  12. Chaves LF, Koenraadt CJ, , 2010. Climate change and highland malaria: fresh air for a hot debate. Q Rev Biol 85: 2755.[Crossref]
  13. Zhou SS, Huang F, Wang JJ, Zhang SS, Su YP, Tang LH, , 2010. Geographical, meteorological and vectorial factors related to malaria re-emergence in Huang-Huai River of central China. Malar J 9: 337.[Crossref]
  14. Huang F, Zhou S, Zhang S, Wang H, Tang L, , 2011. Temporal correlation analysis between malaria and meteorological factors in Motuo County, Tibet. Malar J 10: 54.[Crossref]
  15. Komen K, Olwoch J, Rautenbach H, Botai J, Adebayo A, , 2015. Long-run relative importance of temperature as the main driver to malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: a simple econometric approach. EcoHealth 12: 131143.[Crossref]
  16. Diboulo E, Sie A, Diadier DA, Voules DA, Ye Y, Vounatsou P, , 2015. Bayesian variable selection in modelling geographical heterogeneity in malaria transmission from sparse data: an application to Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) data, Burkina Faso. Parasit Vectors 8: 118.[Crossref]
  17. Huang F, Zhou S, Zhang S, Zhang H, Li W, , 2011. Meteorological factors-based spatio-temporal mapping and predicting malaria in central China. Am J Trop Med Hyg 85: 560567.[Crossref]
  18. Gao HW, Wang LP, Liang S, Liu YX, Tong SL, Wang JJ, Li YP, Wang XF, Yang H, Ma JQ, Fang LQ, Cao WC, , 2012. Change in rainfall drives malaria re-emergence in Anhui Province, China. PLoS One 7: e43686.[Crossref]
  19. Hygienic Standards. The Diagnostic Criteria for Malaria (WS 259-2006). Available at: http://www.freestd.us/soft4/4649603.htm. Accessed April 18, 2017.
  20. Anselin L, , 2006. How (not) to lie with spatial statistics. Am J Prev Med 30: S3S6.[Crossref]
  21. Moran PAP, , 1950. Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika 37: 1723.[Crossref]
  22. Ord JK, Getis A, , 1995. Local spatial autocorrelation statistics: distributional issues and an application. Geogr Anal 27: 286306.[Crossref]
  23. Anselin L, , 1995. Local indicators of spatial association—LISA. Geogr Anal 27: 93115.[Crossref]
  24. Kulldorff M, , 1997. A spatial scan statistic. Commun Stat Theory Methods 26: 14811496.[Crossref]
  25. Kulldorff M, Glaz J, Balakrishnan N, , 1999. Spatial scan statistics: models, calculations, and applications. , eds. Scan Statistics and Applications. Boston, MA: Birkhäuser Boston, 303322.[Crossref]
  26. Wen L, Li C, Lin M, Yuan Z, Huo D, Li S, Wang Y, Chu C, Jia R, Song H, , 2011. Spatio-temporal analysis of malaria incidence at the village level in a malaria-endemic area in Hainan, China. Malar J 10: 88.[Crossref]
  27. Chen Z, Shi L, Zhou XN, Xia ZG, Bergquist R, Jiang QW, , 2014. Elimination of malaria due to Plasmodium vivax in central part of the People’s Republic of China: analysis and prediction based on modeling. Geospat Health 9: 169177.[Crossref]
  28. Zhou SS, Zhang SS, Zhang L, Rietveld AE, Ramsay AR, Zachariah R, Bissell K, Van den Bergh R, Xia ZG, Zhou XN, Cibulskis RE, , 2015. China’s 1-3-7 surveillance and response strategy for malaria elimination: is case reporting, investigation and foci response happening according to plan? Infect Dis Poverty 4: 55.[Crossref]
  29. Hui FM1, Xu B, Chen ZW, Cheng X, Liang L, Huang HB, Fang LQ, Yang H, Zhou HN, Yang HL, Zhou XN, Cao WC, Gong P, , 2009. Spatio-temporal distribution of malaria in Yunnan Province, China. Am J Trop Med Hyg 81: 503509.
  30. Zhang L, Feng J, Xia ZG, , 2014. Malaria situation in the People’s Republic of China in 2013. Zhongguo Ji Sheng Chong Xue Yu Ji Sheng Chong Bing Za Zhi 32: 407413.
  31. Huang JX, Xia ZG, Zhou SS, Pu XJ, Hu MG, Huang DC, Ren ZP, Zhang SS, Yang MN, Wang DQ, Wang JF, , 2015. Spatio-temporal analysis of malaria vectors in national malaria surveillance sites in China. Parasit Vectors 8: 146.[Crossref]
  32. Xia J, Cai S, Zhang H, Lin W, Fan Y, Qiu J, Sun L, Chang B, Zhang Z, Nie S, , 2015. Spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal analysis of malaria in Hubei Province, China from 2004–2011. Malar J 14: 145.[Crossref]
  33. Li JH, Lin KM, Wei SJ, Wei HY, Li J, Yang YC, , 2015. Effect of malaria surveillance and control of Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region in 2013. Zhongguo Xue Xi Chong Bing Fang Zhi Za Zhi 27: 4144.
  34. Dommar CJ, Lowe R, Robinson M, Rodo X, , 2014. An agent-based model driven by tropical rainfall to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak. Acta Trop 129: 6173.[Crossref]
  35. Hsiang MS, Gosling RD, , 2015. Striding toward malaria elimination in China. Am J Trop Med Hyg 93: 203204.[Crossref]
  36. Yin JH, Yan H, Huang F, Li M, Xiao HH, Zhou SS, Xia ZG, , 2015. Establishing a China malaria diagnosis reference laboratory network for malaria elimination. Malar J 14: 40.[Crossref]
  37. Lu G, Zhou S, Horstick O, Wang X, Liu Y, Muller O, , 2014. Malaria outbreaks in China (1990–2013): a systematic review. Malar J 13: 269.[Crossref]
  38. Liu H, Yang HL, Tang LH, Li XL, Huang F, Wang JZ, Li CF, Wang HY, Nie RH, Guo XR, Lin YX, Li M, Wang J, Xu JW, , 2015. In vivo monitoring of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine sensitivity in Plasmodium falciparum along the China-Myanmar border of Yunnan Province, China from 2007 to 2013. Malar J 14: 47.[Crossref]
  39. Liu H, Yang HL, Tang LH, Li XL, Huang F, Wang JZ, Li CF, Wang HY, Nie RH, Guo XR, Lin YX, Li M, Xu JW, , 2014. Monitoring Plasmodium vivax chloroquine sensitivity along China-Myanmar border of Yunnan Province, China during 2008–2013. Malar J 13: 364.[Crossref]
  40. Xu JW, Liao YM, Liu H, Nie RH, Havumaki J, , 2014. Use of bed nets and factors that influence bed net use among Jinuo Ethnic Minority in southern China. PLoS One 9: e103780.[Crossref]
  41. Kenea O, Balkew M, Gebre-Michael T, , 2011. Environmental factors associated with larval habitats of anopheline mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in irrigation and major drainage areas in the middle course of the Rift Valley, central Ethiopia. J Vector Borne Dis 48: 8592.
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.16-0711
Loading
/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.16-0711
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Supplementary Data

Supplemental Tables

  • Received : 30 Aug 2016
  • Accepted : 08 Feb 2017

Most Cited This Month

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error