1921
Volume 97, Issue 1
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645

Abstract

Abstract.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors’ habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.16-0444
2017-07-12
2018-10-18
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

/deliver/fulltext/14761645/97/1/tpmd160444.html?itemId=/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.16-0444&mimeType=html&fmt=ahah

References

  1. Arndt C, Farmer W, Strzepek K, Thurlow J, , 2012. Climate change, agriculture and food security in Tanzania. Rev Dev Econ 16: 378393.[Crossref]
  2. Mary AL, Majule AE, , 2009. Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on agriculture in semi arid areas of Tanzania: the case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, Tanzania. African J Environ Sci Technol 3: 206218.
  3. Tabachnick WJ, , 2010. Challenges in predicting climate and environmental effects on vector-borne disease episystems in a changing world. J Exp Biol 213: 946954.[Crossref]
  4. Harvell CD, Mitchell CE, Ward JR, Altizer S, Dobson AP, Ostfeld RS, Samuel MD, , 2002. Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota. Science 296: 21582162.[Crossref]
  5. Gale P, Brouwer A, Ramnial V, Kelly L, Kosmider R, Fooks AR, Snary EL, , 2010. Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion. Epidemiol Infect 138: 214225.[Crossref]
  6. Gould EA, Higgs S, Buckley A, Gritsun TS, , 2006. Potential arbovirus emergence and implications for the United Kingdom. Emerg Infect Dis 12: 549555.[Crossref]
  7. Mboera LEG, Mayala BK, Kweka EJ, Mazigo HD, , 2011. Impact of climate change on human health and health systems in Tanzania: a review. Tanzan J Health Res 13: 407426.
  8. Patz JA, Engelberg D, Last J, , 2000. The effects of changing weather on public health. Annu Rev Public Health 21: 271307.[Crossref]
  9. McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S, , 2006. Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet 367: 859869.[Crossref]
  10. Martin V, Chevalier V, Ceccato P, Anyamba A, De Simone L, Lubroth J, de La Rocque S, Domenech J, , 2008. The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever. Rev Sci Tech 27: 413426.[Crossref]
  11. Tourre YM, Lacaux J-P, Vignolles C, Lafaye M, , 2009. Climate impacts on environmental risks evaluated from space: a conceptual approach to the case of Rift Valley fever in Senegal. Glob Health Action 2: 17.
  12. Daubney R, Hudson JR, Garnham PC, , 1931. Enzootic hepatitis or Rift Valley fever. An undescribed virus disease of sheep cattle and man from east Africa. J Pathol Bacteriol 34: 545579.[Crossref]
  13. Bishop DH, Beaty BJ, , 1988. Molecular and biochemical studies of the evolution, infection and transmission of insect bunyaviruses. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 321: 463483.[Crossref]
  14. Anyamba A, Linthicum KJ, Small J, Britch SC, Pak E, De La Rocque S, Formenty P, Hightower AW, Breiman RF, Chretien JP, Tucker CJ, Schnabel D, Sang R, Haagsma K, Latham M, Lewandowski HB, Magdi SO, Mohamed MA, Nguku PM, Reynes JM, Swanepoel R, , 2010. Prediction, assessment of the Rift Valley fever activity in east and southern Africa 2006–2008 and possible vector control strategies. Am J Trop Med Hyg 83 (Suppl 2): 4351.[Crossref]
  15. Mweya CN, Kimera SI, Mellau LSB, Mboera LEG, , 2015. Inter-epidemic abundance and distribution of potential mosquito vectors for Rift Valley fever virus in Ngorongoro district, Tanzania. Glob Health Action 8: 18.
  16. Meegan JM, Khalil GM, Hoogstraal H, Adham FK, , 1980. Experimental transmission and field isolation studies implicating Culex pipiens as a vector of Rift Valley fever virus in Egypt. Am J Trop Med Hyg 29: 14051410.[Crossref]
  17. Jupp PG, Cornel AJ, , 1988. Vector competence tests with Rift Valley fever virus and five south African species of mosquitoes. J Am Mosq Control Assoc 4: 48. Available at: http://ukpmc.ac.uk/abstract/MED/2903903%5Cnhttp://citebank.org/sites/default/files/JAMCA_V04_N1_P004-008.pdf.
  18. Moutailler S, Krida G, Schaffner F, Vazeille M, Failloux A-B, , 2008. Potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in the Mediterranean region. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 8: 749753.[Crossref]
  19. Le Coupanec A, Babin D, Fiette L, Jouvion G, Ave P, Misse D, Bouloy M, Choumet V, , 2013. Aedes mosquito saliva modulates Rift Valley fever virus pathogenicity. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 7.[Crossref]
  20. Turell MJ, Linthicum KJ, Patrican LA, Davies FG, Kairo A, Bailey CL, , 2008. Vector competence of selected African mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) species for Rift Valley fever virus. J Med Entomol 45: 102108.[Crossref]
  21. Golnar AJ, Turell MJ, LaBeaud AD, Kading RC, Hamer GL, , 2014. Predicting the mosquito species and vertebrate species involved in the theoretical transmission of Rift Valley fever virus in the United States. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 8: e3163.[Crossref]
  22. Conley AK, Fuller DO, Haddad N, Hassan AN, Gad AM, Beier JC, , 2014. Modeling the distribution of the West Nile and Rift Valley fever vector Culex pipiens in arid and semi-arid regions of the Middle East and north Africa. Parasit Vectors 7: 289.[Crossref]
  23. Sallam MF, Al Ahmed AM, Abdel-Dayem MS, Abdullah MAR, , 2013. Ecological niche modeling and land cover risk areas for Rift Valley fever vector, Culex tritaeniorhynchus giles in Jazan, Saudi Arabia. PLoS One 8: e65786.[Crossref]
  24. Mweya CN, Kimera SI, Kija JB, Mboera LEG, , 2013. Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in east Africa. Infect Ecol Epidemiol 3: 17.
  25. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE, , 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Modell 190: 231259.[Crossref]
  26. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A, , 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25: 19651978.[Crossref]
  27. Mweya CN, Kimera SI, Karimuribo ED, Mboera LEG, , 2013. Comparison of sampling techniques for Rift Valley fever virus potential vectors, Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Tanzan J Health Res 15: 158164.
  28. Mohamed M, Mosha F, Mghamba J, Zaki SR, Shieh WJ, Paweska J, Omulo S, Gikundi S, Mmbuji P, Bloland P, Zeidner N, Kalinga R, Breiman RF, Njenga MK, , 2010. Epidemiologic and clinical aspects of a Rift Valley fever outbreak in humans in Tanzania, 2007. Am J Trop Med Hyg 83: 2227.[Crossref]
  29. Kebede S, Duales S, Yokouide A, Alemu W, , 2010. Trends of major disease outbreaks in the African region, 2003–2007. East Afr J Public Health 7: 2029.
  30. Anyangu AS, Gould LH, Sharif SK, Nguku PM, Omolo JO, Mutonga D, Rao CY, Lederman ER, Schnabel D, Paweska JT, Katz M, Hightower A, Njenga MK, Feikin DR, Breiman RF, , 2010. Risk factors for severe rift valley fever infection in Kenya, 2007. Am J Trop Med Hyg 83 (Suppl 2): 1421.[Crossref]
  31. Aradaib IE, Erickson BR, Elageb RM, Khristova ML, Carroll SA, Elkhidir IM, Karsany ME, Karrar AE, Elbashir MI, Nichol ST, , 2013. Rift valley fever, Sudan, 2007 and 2010. Emerg Infect Dis 19: 246253.[Crossref]
  32. Dar O, McIntyre S, Hogarth S, Heymann D, , 2013. Rift valley fever and a new paradigm of research and development for zoonotic disease control. Emerg Infect Dis 19: 189193.[Crossref]
  33. Tanzania Bureau of Statistics and Macro International, 2011. Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey 2010. Dar es salaam, Tanzania: NBS and ICF Macro.
  34. Ogden NH, Milka R, Caminade C, Gachon P, , 2014. Recent and projected future climatic suitability of north America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus . Parasit Vectors 7: 532.[Crossref]
  35. Pearson RG, Raxworthy CJ, Nakamura M, Peterson AT, Townsend Peterson A, , 2007. Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar. J Biogeogr 34: 102117.[Crossref]
  36. Kija B, Mweya CN, Mwita M, Fumagwa R, , 2013. Prediction of suitable habitat for potential invasive plant species Parthenium hysterophorus in Tanzania: a short communication. Int J Ecosyst 3: 8286.
  37. Peterson AT, , 2003. Predicting the geography of species’ invasions via ecological niche modeling. Q Rev Biol 78: 419433.[Crossref]
  38. Peterson AT, Papeş M, Soberón J, Papes M, Soberon J, , 2008. Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling. Ecol Modell 213: 6372.[Crossref]
  39. Lobo JM, Jimenez-Valverde A, Real R, Jiménez-Valverde A, Real R, Jimnez-valverde A, Real R, , 2008. AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 17: 145151.[Crossref]
  40. Wu X, Duvvuri VR, Lou Y, Ogden NH, Pelcat Y, Wu J, , 2013. Developing a temperature-driven map of the basic reproductive number of the emerging tick vector of Lyme disease Ixodes scapularis in Canada. J Theor Biol 319: 5061.[Crossref]
  41. Kifaro EG, Nkangaga J, Joshua G, Sallu R, Yongolo M, Dautu G, Kasanga CJ, , 2014. Epidemiological study of Rift Valley fever virus in Kigoma, Tanzania. Onderstepoort J Vet Res 81: E1E5.[Crossref]
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.16-0444
Loading
/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.16-0444
Loading

Data & Media loading...

  • Received : 06 Jun 2016
  • Accepted : 23 Feb 2017

Most Cited This Month

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error