1921
Volume 89, Issue 4
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645

Abstract

Abstract.

In 2010, toxigenic was newly introduced to Haiti. Because resources are limited, decision-makers need to understand the effect of different preventive interventions. We built a static model to estimate the potential number of cholera cases averted through improvements in coverage in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) (i.e., latrines, point-of-use chlorination, and piped water), oral cholera vaccine (OCV), or a combination of both. We allowed indirect effects and non-linear relationships between effect and population coverage. Because there are limited incidence data for endemic cholera in Haiti, we estimated the incidence of cholera over 20 years in Haiti by using data from Malawi. Over the next two decades, scalable WASH interventions could avert 57,949–78,567 cholera cases, OCV could avert 38,569–77,636 cases, and interventions that combined WASH and OCV could avert 71,586–88,974 cases. Rate of implementation is the most influential variable, and combined approaches maximized the effect.

[open-access] This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene's Re-use License which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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2013-10-09
2017-09-23
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  • Received : 17 Apr 2013
  • Accepted : 31 Jul 2013

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