1921
Volume 88, Issue 5
  • ISSN: 0002-9637
  • E-ISSN: 1476-1645

Abstract

Abstract.

A model for population dynamics and malaria transmission is combined with a within-host dynamics microsolver to study baseline transmission, the effects of seasonality, and the impact of interventions. The Garki Project is recreated in simulation of the pre-intervention baseline and the different combinations of interventions deployed. Modifications are introduced, and longer project duration, extension of dry-season spraying, and transmission-blocking vaccines together achieve local elimination in some conditions. A variety of interventions are simulated in transmission settings that vary in transmission intensity and underlying seasonality. Adding vaccines to existing vector control efforts extends the ability to achieve elimination to higher baseline transmission and less favorable vector behavior. If one species of the species complex feeds disproportionately outdoors for a given complex average behavior, vector control impacts are less than for a single species. Non-zero dry-season transmission limits seasonal oscillation in parasite dynamics and impact of wet-season interventions.

[open-access] This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene's Re-use License which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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  • Received : 04 Jan 2012
  • Accepted : 28 Jan 2013

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