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Landscape Pattern Analysis and Bayesian Modeling for Predicting Oncomelania hupensis Distribution in Eryuan County, People’s Republic of China

Detailed knowledge of how local landscape patterns influence the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum, might facilitate more effective schistosomiasis control. We selected 12 villages in a mountainous area of Eryuan County, Yunnan Province, People’s Republic of China, and developed Bayesian geostatistical models to explore heterogeneities of landscape composition in relation to distribution of O. hupensis. The best-fitting spatio-temporal model indicated that the snail density was significantly correlated with environmental factors. Specifically, snail density was positively correlated with wetness and inversely correlated with the normalized difference vegetation index and mollusciciding, and snail density decreased as landscape patterns became more uniform. However, the distribution of infected snails was not significantly correlated with any of the investigated environmental factors and landscape metrics. Our enhanced understanding of O. hupensis ecology is important for spatial targeting of schistosomiasis control interventions.

Received February 9, 2008. Accepted for publication March 10, 2009.

Acknowledgments: We thank the staff of the Eryuan Schistosomiasis Control Station and the Dali Institute for Schistosomiasis Control for kind collaborations and support in data collection.

Financial support: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 30590373), the Research Foundation of the Health Department of Jiangsu Province (no. H200625), the Projects in the Science and Technology Pillar Program of Jiangsu Province (no. BS2007023), the Key Projects in the National Science and Technology Pillar Program during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan Period (2007BAC03A02), the UNDP/World Bank/World Health Organization Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR nos. A30298 and A70530), and the National Project of Important Infectious Diseases (2008ZX10004-011). Peter Steinmann (project no. PBBSP3-123193) and Jürg Utzinger (project nos. PPOOB–102883 and PPOOB–119129) are supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation.

^* Address correspondence to Xiao-Nong Zhou, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China. E-mail: ipdzhouxn{at}sh163.net

Authors’ addresses: Kun Yang, Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Meiyuan117, Wuxi 214064, People’s Republic of China and National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 207 Rui Jin Er Road, Shanghai 200025, People’s Republic of China, E-mail: jipdyk76{at}hotmail.com. Xiao-Nong Zhou, Xiao-Hua Wu, and Xian-Hong Wang, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 207 Rui Jin Er Road, Shanghai 200025, People’s Republic of China, E-mails: ipdzhouxn{at}sh163.net, wuxiaohua70{at}163.com, and rainwang111{at}163.com. Peter Steinmann, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 207 Rui Jin Er Road, Shanghai 200025, People’s Republic of China and Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, PO Box, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland, E-mail: peter.steinmann{at}unibas.ch. Guo-Jing Yang, Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Meiyuan117, Wuxi 214064, People’s Republic of China, E-mail: guojingyang{at}hotmail.com. Jürg Utzinger, Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, PO Box, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland, E-mail: juerg.utzinger{at}unibas.ch. Hong-Jun Li, Eryuan Schistosomiasis Control Station, Xingyuan Road, Eryuan County 671200, People’s Republic of China, E-mail: eylihongjun{at}sina.com.

Note: The Appendix can be viewed online at www.ajtmh.org.

Reprint requests: Xiao-Nong Zhou, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 207 Rui Jin Er Road, Shanghai 200025, People’s Republic of China, E-mail: ipdzhouxn{at}sh163.net.