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Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 80(6), 2009, pp. 1047-1053
Copyright © 2009 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Modeling CD4+ Cell Count Increase Over a Six-Year Period in HIV-1–Infected Patients on Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Senegal

Pierre De Beaudrap*, Jean-François Etard, Assane Diouf, Ibrahima Ndiaye, Ndèye Fatou Guèye, Pape Mandoumbé Guèye, Papa Salif Sow, Souleymane Mboup, Ibra Ndoye, René Ecochard, Delaporte Eric for the ANRS 1215/90 Study Group
Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, Lyon, F-69003, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon; Université Lyon I, Villeurbanne, F-69100, France; CNRS; UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, F-69310, France; UMR 145, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France; Regional Research and Training Centre for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Infectious Diseases Department, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Ambulatory Care Unit, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; Military Hospital of Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Laboratory of Bacteriology and Virology, Le Dantec Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal; CNLS, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senegal

To assess the extents and determinants of long-term CD4 cell increases after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART), changes in CD4 cell counts were analyzed in a cohort of HIV-1–infected Senegalese using a mixed-effects model. After a median follow-up of 54 months, an average of 483 CD4 cells/mm3 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 331; 680) was reached. The average asymptote level was ~421 cells/mm3 (95% CI = 390; 454) in patients with < 200 cells/mm3 at baseline and ~500 cells/mm3 in patients with > 200 cells/mm3. The independent predictors of long-term CD4 cell reconstitution were the baseline CD4 cell count and the monthly average viral load over the entire follow-up. This good long-term immune reconstitution, optimal in subjects with low average viral loads and > 200 CD4 cells/mm3 at baseline, argues in favor of the earliest possible access to ART and underlines the importance of strict compliance with the treatment.


Received September 13, 2007. Accepted for publication December 29, 2008.

Acknowledgments: We are grateful to Jean Iwaz (Hospices Civils de Lyon, France) for his assistance in the preparation and the revision of this manuscript.

Financial support: This study was partially funded by the French "Agence Nationale de Recherche sur le SIDA et les hépatites virales" (ANRS, Projects 1215 and 1290), the European Union (Project B7-6211/99/005), and the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD). The first author received a fellowship from Sidaction foundation.

Disclosure: All authors declare that they have no conflict of interest in relation to this article.

ANRS 1290 Study Group: I. Ndoye (Multisectorial AIDS Program, Dakar, Senegal), E. Delaporte, J. F. Etard, C. Laurent, B. Taverne, M. Thierry-Mieg (UMR 145, Research Institute for Development (IRD)/University of Montpellier, Dakar, Senegal and Montpellier, France), M. M. Bitèye, A. B. Dieng, A. Diouf, A. Sarr, L. Zié (Regional Research and Training Center for HIV/AIDS, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal), V. Cilote, I. Lanièce (French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Dakar, Senegal), I. Ndiaye, A. Ndir, C. T. Ndour, C. S. Senghor, P. S. Sow (Department of Infectious Diseases, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal), M. Basty Fall, N. M. Dia Badiane, N. Diakhaté, M. Diallo, L. M. Diouf, N. F. Ngom Guèye (Ambulatory Care Unit-Red-Cross, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal), K. Ba Fall, P. M. Guèye, C. Périno (Military Hospital of Dakar, Senegal), P. A. Diaw, H. Diop Ndiaye, S. Mboup, N. C. Touré Kane (Le Dantec University Teaching Hospital, Virology and Bacteriology Laboratory, Dakar, Senegal), K. Sow (AIDS Control Division, Ministry of Health, Dakar, Senagal), K. Diop, B. Ndiaye (Central Pharmacy, Fann University Teaching Hospital, Dakar, Senegal), M. Ciss (Ministry of Health, National Drug Laboratory, Dakar, Senegal), and A. Desclaux (Paul Cezanne University, CReCSS, Aix-en-Provence, France).

* Address correspondence to Pierre De Beaudrap, IRD, UMR 145, 911 Avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, F-34394 Montpellier, France. E-mail: pierre.debeaudrap{at}ird.fr

Authors’ addresses: Pierre De Beaudrap and René Ecochard, Service de Biostatistique, 162 avenue Lacassagne, F-69003, Lyon, France. Jean-François Etard and Eric Delaporte, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, 911 avenue Agropolis BP64501 Montpellier cedex 5, France. Assane Diouf, Centre de Recherche Clinique de Fann, CHU de Fann, BP 5035, Dakar, Sénégal. Ibrahima Ndiaye, Pape Mandoumbé Guèye, and Papa Salif Sow, Centre de Recherche Clinique de Fann, Hôpital de Fann, BP 5035, Dakar, Sénégal. Ndèye Fatou Guèye, Centre de Traitement Ambulatoire, Hôpital de Fann, BP 5035, Dakar, Sénégal. Souleymane Mboup, Laboratoire de virologie, Hôpital le Dantec, 30 avenue Pasteur, Dakar, Sénégal. Ibra Ndoye, Centre National de Lutte contre le SIDA, Immeuble Concorde, 191 Route de Ngor, BP 25 927, Dakar, Sénégal.

Reprint requests: Pierre de Beaudrap, IRD, UMR 145, 911 Avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, F-34394 Montpellier, France, E-mail: pierre.debeaudrap{at}ird.fr.







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Copyright © 2009 by the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.