HOME HELP FEEDBACK SUBSCRIPTIONS ARCHIVE SEARCH TABLE OF CONTENTS		QUICK SEARCH:   [advanced] Author: Keyword(s): Year:  Vol:  Page:

This Article Full Text Full Text (PDF) Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Google Scholar Articles by Winters, A. M. Articles by Eisen, R. J. PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Winters, A. M. Articles by Eisen, R. J.

Spatial Risk Models for Human Plague in the West Nile Region of Uganda

The West Nile region of Uganda represents an epidemiologic focus for human plague in east Africa. However, limited capacity for diagnostic laboratory testing means few clinically diagnosed cases are confirmed and the true burden of disease is undetermined. The aims of the study were 1) describe the spatial distribution of clinical plague cases in the region, 2) identify ecologic correlates of incidence, and 3) incorporate these variables into predictive models that define areas of plague risk. The model explained 74% of the incidence variation and revealed that cases were more common above 1,300 m than below. Remotely-sensed variables associated with differences in soil or vegetation were also identified as incidence predictors. The study demonstrated that plague incidence can be modeled at parish-level scale based on environmental variables and identified parishes where cases may be under-reported and enhanced surveillance and preventative measures may be implemented to decrease the burden of plague.

Received February 6, 2009. Accepted for publication March 23, 2009.

Acknowledgments: We thank Chris Sexton for assisting in the extraction and compilation of epidemiologic data for the area; Patrick Kariuki and Wm. Steve Helterbrand for geographic information system data for the study area; Emily Zielinski-Gutierrez, Heidi E. Brown, and Ingrid Weber for helpful discussions.

^* Address correspondence to Anna M. Winters, Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 3150 Rampart Rd., Fort Collins, CO 80522. E-mail: AWinters1{at}cdc.gov

Authors’ addresses: Anna M. Winters, Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 3150 Rampart Rd. Fort Collins, CO 80522 and Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, E-mail: AWinters1{at}cdc.gov. J. Erin Staples, Paul S. Mead, Kevin Griffith, Russell E. Enscore, Kenneth L. Gage, and Rebecca J. Eisen, Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 3150 Rampart Rd. Fort Collins, CO 80522. Asaph Ogen-Odoi, deceased, formerly of the Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda. Nicholas Owor and Nackson Babi, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda. Lars Eisen, Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523.

This article has been cited by other articles:

				G. Amatre, N. Babi, R. E. Enscore, A. Ogen-Odoi, L. A. Atiku, A. Akol, K. L. Gage, and R. J. Eisen Flea Diversity and Infestation Prevalence on Rodents in a Plague-Endemic Region of Uganda Am J Trop Med Hyg, October 1, 2009; 81(4): 718 - 724. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]