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Predictive Spatial Models for Risk of West Nile Virus Exposure in Eastern and Western Colorado

In the absence of a vaccine for use in humans against West Nile virus (WNV), mosquito control and personal protection against mosquito bites are the only measures available to prevent disease. Improved spatial targeting is desirable for costly mosquito and WNV surveillance and control schemes. We used a multivariate regression modeling approach to develop spatial models predicting high risk of exposure to WNV in western and eastern Colorado based on associations between Geographic Information System–derived environmental data and zip code of residence for 3,659 human WNV disease cases from 2002 to 2006. Models were robust, with user accuracies for correct classification of high risk areas of 67–80%. The importance of selecting a suitable model development area in an ecologically and climatically diverse environment was shown by models based on data from the eastern plains landscape performing poorly in the mountainous western part of Colorado and vice versa.

Received December 7, 2007. Accepted for publication June 3, 2008.

Acknowledgments: The authors thank Michael Johansson and Emily Zielinski-Gutierrez from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for helpful discussions.

Financial support: The study was funded by grants from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (T01/CCT822307), Colorado State University College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, and National Institutes of Health contract AI-25489.

^* Address correspondence to Anna M. Winters, Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, Colorado State University, Infectious Disease Annex - 1690 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1690. E-mail: anna.winters{at}colostate.edu

Authors’ addresses: Anna M. Winters, Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, Colorado State University, Infectious Disease Annex, 1690 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1690, Tel: 970-491-8745, Fax: 970-491-8707, E-mail: anna.winters{at}colostate.edu. Rebecca J. Eisen, Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, National Center for Vector-Borne, Zoonotic and Enteric Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO 80521. Saul Lozano-Fuentes, Chester G. Moore, and Lars Eisen, Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, Colorado State University, Infectious Disease Annex, 1690 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523. W. John Pape, Communicable Disease Program, Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, 4300 Cherry Creek Drive South, Denver, CO 80246.