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Modeling the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis, the Causative Agent of Anthrax Disease, for the Contiguous United States using Predictive Ecologic Niche Modeling

The ecology and distribution of Bacillus anthracis is poorly understood despite continued anthrax outbreaks in wildlife and livestock throughout the United States. Little work is available to define the potential environments that may lead to prolonged spore survival and subsequent outbreaks. This study used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction modeling system to model the ecological niche for B. anthracis in the contiguous United States using wildlife and livestock outbreaks and several environmental variables. The modeled niche is defined by a narrow range of normalized difference vegetation index, precipitation, and elevation, with the geographic distribution heavily concentrated in a narrow corridor from southwest Texas northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota. Because disease control programs rely on vaccination and carcass disposal, and vaccination in wildlife remains untenable, understanding the distribution of B. anthracis plays an important role in efforts to prevent/eradicate the disease. Likewise, these results potentially aid in differentiating endemic/natural outbreaks from industrial-contamination related outbreaks or bioterrorist attacks.

Received July 5, 2007. Accepted for publication August 24, 2007.

Acknowledgments: We thank R. Scachetti-Pereira for developing the DesktopGARP implementation of the GARP algorithm; N. Dyer, R. Daly, M. Wimberly, and L. Glaser for providing outbreak data; D. Wiklund for providing data from the Dakotas and Minnesota; and D. Rogers and S. Hay for developing and providing the TALA environmental data set. We also thank the editor of the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene and two anonymous reviewers for strengthening this manuscript. The Texas data set was a combination of data from Louisiana State University field investigations from 2000–2005 and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention outbreak response in 2001.

Financial support: Texas field data was supported by the RV Ranch and staff. Other support was provided by Louisiana State University.

^* Address correspondence to Jason K. Blackburn, Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, California State University, Fullerton, 800 St. North College Drive, Fullerton, CA 92834. E-mail: jablackburn{at}fullerton.edu

Authors’ addresses: Jason K. Blackburn, Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, California State University, Fullerton, 800 North St. College Drive, Fullerton, CA 92834. Kristina M. McNyset, Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development/Western Ecology Division, Corvallis, OR 97333. Andrew Curtis, Department of Geography, College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences, University of Southern California, Kaprielian Hall, Room 416, Los Angeles, CA 90089. Martin E. Hugh-Jones, Department of Environmental Studies, School of the Coast and Environment, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803.