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Parasite Prevalence: A Static Measure of Dynamic Infections

The intensity of malaria transmission is often measured by looking at the fraction of individuals infected at a given point in time. However, malaria infections in individuals are dynamic, leading to uncertainty about whether a cross-sectional survey that represents a single snapshot in time is a useful representation of a temporally complex process. In this analysis, we examine the impact of parasite density fluctuations on the measurement of parasite prevalence. Our results show that parasite prevalence may be underestimated by 20% or more, depending on the sensitivity of parasite detection.

Received January 24, 2007. Accepted for publication April 14, 2007.

^* Address correspondence to Wendy Prudhomme O’Meara, National Institutes of Health, 16 Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892, E-mail: prudhomw{at}mail.nih.gov

Authors’ addresses: Wendy Prudhomme O’Meara and F. Ellis Mc-Kenzie, National Institutes of Health, 16 Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892, Telephone: 301-496-2027, Fax: 301-496-8496, E-mail: prudhomw{at}mail.nih.gov. William E. Collins, Division of Parasitic Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Highway, Chamblee, GA 30341.