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Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 75(1), 2006, pp. 9-15
Copyright © 2006 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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GEOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL FOR OUTBREAKS OF MARBURG HEMORRHAGIC FEVER

A. TOWNSEND PETERSON*, R. RYAN LASH, DARIN S. CARROLL, AND KARL M. JOHNSON
Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, and Department of Geography, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas; Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia; Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico

Marburg virus represents one of the least well-known of the hemorrhagic fever-causing viruses worldwide; in particular, its geographic potential in Africa remains quite mysterious. Ecologic niche modeling was used to explore the geographic and ecologic potential of Marburg virus in Africa. Model results permitted a reinterpretation of the geographic point of infection in the initiation of the 1975 cases in Zimbabwe, and also anticipated the potential for cases in Angola, where a large outbreak recently (2004–2005) occurred. The geographic potential for additional outbreaks is outlined, including in several countries in which the virus is not known. Overall, results demonstrate that ecologic niche modeling can be a powerful tool in understanding geographic distributions of species and other biologic phenomena such as zoonotic disease transmission from natural reservoir populations.

Received May 31, 2005. Accepted for publication December 21, 2005.

Acknowledgments: We thank H. Leirs, D. Bausch, J. Mills, and P. Jahrling for many insightful and helpful discussions of filovirus distribution and ecology, and H. J. Kelsey for providing information and imagery from the 1975 Zimbabwe event. Two anonymous reviewers provided useful comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. We particularly thank J. L. Conrad for his generosity in discussing his research conducted 30 years ago.

Financial support: This research was supported by a contract from the U.S. Department of Defense. The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene assisted with publication expenses.

Disclaimer: The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the funding agency.

* Address correspondence to A. Townsend Peterson, Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66047. E-mail: town{at}ku.edu

Authors’ addresses: A. Townsend Peterson, Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66047, E-mail: town{at}ku.edu. R. Ryan Lash, Department of Geography, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66047, E-mail: rrl12281{at}ku.edu. Darin S. Carroll, Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, E-mail: zuz4{at}cdc.gov Karl M. Johnson, Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, E-mail: karlmjohnson{at}aol.com.

* http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/hydro/

{dagger} http://biogeo.berkley.edu/worldclim/worldclim.htm

{ddagger} http://www.lifemapper.org/desktopgarp/






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Copyright © 2006 by the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.