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MODELING HANTAVIRUS RESERVOIR SPECIES DOMINANCE IN HIGH SEROPREVALENCE AREAS ON THE AZUERO PENINSULA OF PANAMA

Habitat fragmentation commonly influences distribution of zoonotic disease reservoirs. In Panama, populations of rodent hosts of hantaviruses are favored by small habitat fragments isolated by agricultural lands. We expected a similar relationship between landscape characteristics and host distribution at fine geographical scales in southern Panama. The relative abundance of Zygodontomys brevicauda, the primary host for "Calabazo" virus, and other rodents was assessed at 24 sites within the Azuero Peninsula. We used satellite imagery to produce several spatial variables that described landscape; however, only slope was consistently related to abundances of the two most dominant rodent species. Using regression, we constructed a spatial model of areas of Z. brevicauda dominance, which in turn relates to higher infection rates. The model predicts highest abundances of Z. brevicauda in flat areas, where humans also dominate. These predictions have important ecological and conservation implications that associate diversity loss, topography, and human land use.

Received August 23, 2005. Accepted for publication February 17, 2006.

Acknowledgments: The authors thank A. Townsend Peterson for helpful suggestions and comments and J. Cook., E. S. Loker, R. Parmenter, and H. Samaniego who reviewed an earlier version of this manuscript. The authors thank an anonymous reviewer who provided insightful comments. We also thank A. Armién, E. Broce, and other Instituto Conmemmorativo Gorgas staff for general support, and A. McKency, M. Ávila, O. Vargas, N. Ríos, F. Crespo, E. Valdez, M. Hudson, and R. Jiménez for field assistance. We are grateful for all support provided by the Ministry of Health of Panama.

Financial support: The fieldwork was funded by NSF Dissertation Improvement Grant 3-25471-3100 and DARPA grant #066000.

^* Address correspondence to J. Tomasz Giermakowski, MSC03 2020, Museum of Southwestern Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131-0001. E-mail: tomas{at}unm.edu

Authors’ addresses: Gerardo Suzán, J. Tomasz Giermakowski, Erika Marcé, and Terry Yates, Museum of Southwestern Biology, MSC03 2020 Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131-0001, E-mails: gsuzan{at}unm.edu, tomas{at}unm.edu, emarce{at}unm.edu, and tyates{at}unm.edu. Humberto Suzán-Azpiri, Escuela de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Querétaro, CP 76010, México, E-mail: hsuzan{at}uaq.mx. Blas Armién, Instituto Conmemorativo GORGAS, Ave. Justo Arosemena y Calle 35, PO Box 6991, Zona 5, Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá, E-mail: barmien{at}gorgas.gob.pa.

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