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Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 72(6), 2005, pp. 792-799
Copyright © 2005 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTORS OF ROSS RIVER VIRUS DISEASE OUTBREAKS IN QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA

MICHELLE L. GATTON, BRIAN H. KAY, AND PETER A. RYAN
Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research and The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, with the majority of cases reported from Queensland. In this study we investigate the relationship between local RRV disease outbreaks and standardized rainfall and temperature data in Queensland. No one set of variables could be found to accurately predict RRV disease outbreaks across all of Queensland, although good predictive models could be developed for smaller regions. The variables identified as important in predicting RRV disease outbreaks differed between regions, and also between summer and autumn. This work highlights the sensitive relationship between virus prevalence, mosquito bionomics, and climate, illustrating that critical climatic factors differ depending on underlying environmental conditions. Identification of factors leading to RRV disease outbreaks will help local authorities identify periods of high risk, optimizing the provision of additional mosquito control measures.

Received July 1, 2004. Accepted for publication September 1, 2004.

Acknowledgment: We thank Craig Davies (Communicable Diseases Unit, Queensland Health) for providing the RRV disease notification data.

Financial support: Michelle L. Gatton was supported by a University of Queensland Postdoctoral Research Fellowship.

Authors’ address: Michelle L. Gatton, Brian H. Kay, and Peter A. Ryan, Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, PO Royal Brisbane Hospital, Herston, Brisbane, Queensland 4029, Australia, Telephone: 61-7-3362-0416, Fax: 61-7-3362-0104, E-mail: michellG{at}qimr.edu.au, Telephone: 61-7-3362-0350, Fax: 61-7-3362-0106, E-mail: brianK{at}qimr.edu.au, Telephone: 61-7-3362-0351, Fax: 61-7-3362-0106, E-mail: peterR{at}qimr.edu.au.




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