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SPATIAL-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF ROSS RIVER VIRUS DISEASE PATTERNS IN QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA

Ross River virus is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia, with the majority of notifications being in Queensland. This study describes a retrospective spatial analysis of Queensland Ross River virus disease notifications spanning a 10-year period. Notifications were mapped to the local government area (LGA) of the residence of the patient. Ross River virus disease outbreaks within each LGA were detected by applying a Poisson model. Estimates of the seasonal incidence rates indicated wide variation between seasons and LGAs. Positive spatial autocorrelation between LGAs experiencing outbreaks indicated that LGAs within the same region often experience outbreaks at the same time. A hierarchical cluster analysis of the outbreak data was used to group LGAs with similar temporal outbreak patterns. This analysis highlights the variability in Ross River virus disease notification rates across Queensland, and provides a robust method for identifying disease outbreaks.

Received December 15, 2003. Accepted for publication January 28, 2004.

Financial support: This work was supported by a Queensland Health Arbovirus Prevention Grant.

Authors’ addresses: Michelle L. Gatton, Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, PO Royal Brisbane Hospital, Herston, Queensland 4029, Australia, Telephone: 61-7-3362-0416, Fax: 61-7-3362-0104, E-mail: michellG{at}qimr.edu.au. Louise A. Kelly-Hope, Vector Research Division, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, L3 5QA, United Kingdom, Telephone: 44-151-705-3107, Fax: 44-151-705-3369, E-mail: lakhope{at}liverpool.ac.uk. Brian H. Kay, Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, PO Royal Brisbane Hospital, Herston, Queensland 4029, Australia, Telephone: 61-7-3362-0350, Fax: 61-7-3362-0106, E-mail: brianK{at}qimr.edu.au. Peter A. Ryan, Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, PO Royal Brisbane Hospital, Herston, Queensland 4029, Australia, Telephone: 61-7-3362-0351, Fax: 61-7-3362-0106, E-mail: peterR{at}qimr.edu.au.

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