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Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 71(3), 2004, pp. 251-261
Copyright © 2004 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF DROUGHT, WETTING, AND HUMAN CASES OF ST. LOUIS ENCEPHALITIS IN SOUTHCENTRAL FLORIDA

JEFFREY SHAMAN, JONATHAN F. DAY, AND MARC STIEGLITZ
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts; Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, Florida; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

Using a dynamic hydrology model, we simulated land surface wetness conditions at 42 sites in 28 counties in southcentral Florida from 1990 to 1998 and compared these simulations with the incidence of human cases of St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) within these counties. Within counties, drought four months prior and wetting one-half month prior were significantly associated with human cases of SLE. Simulated land surface wetness conditions resolved transmission loci in both space and time, and May drought was significantly associated with the subsequent occurrence of human SLE cases. These findings are consistent with previous results associating simulated land surface wetness conditions with the transmission of SLE virus as measured in sentinel chickens, and support our working hypothesis that springtime drought facilitates SLE virus amplification in mosquito and wild bird populations.

Received July 3, 2003. Accepted for publication January 1, 2004.

Acknowledgment: We thank Carina Blackmore, Caroline Collins and their staff at the Florida Department of Health in Tallahassee for their work tracking and reporting human arbovirus cases in Florida. This report is Florida Agricultural Experiment Station Journal Series R-101091.

Financial support: This work was supported by National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth System Science Fellowship NGT5-50323 and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Postdoctoral Program in Climate and Global Change, administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Authors’ addresses: Jeffrey Shaman, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, E-mail: jshaman{at}fas.harvard.edu. Jonathan F. Day, Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, E-mail: JFDA{at}mail.ifas.ufl.edu. Marc Stieglitz, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, E-mail: marc{at}ldeo.columbia.edu.






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Copyright © 2004 by the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.