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DEVELOPMENT OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR ROSS RIVER VIRUS DISEASE IN BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA

This paper describes the development of an empirical model to forecast epidemics of Ross River virus (RRV) disease using the multivariate seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) technique in Brisbane, Australia. We obtained computerized data on notified RRV disease cases, climate, high tide, and population sizes in Brisbane for the period 1985–2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two data sets: the data between January 1985 and December 2000 were used to construct a model, and those between January and December 2001 to validate it. The SARIMA models show that monthly precipitation (ß = 0.004, P = 0.031) was significantly associated with RRV transmission. However, there was no significant association between other climate variables (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, and high tides) and RRV transmission. The predictive values in the model were generally consistent with actual values (root mean square percentage error = 0.94%). Therefore, this model may have applications as a decision supportive tool in disease control and risk-management planning programs.

Received January 7, 2004. Accepted for publication March 10, 2004.

Acknowledgments: We thank the Queensland Department of Health, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland transport, and the Australian Bureau of Statistics for providing the data on notified RRV disease cases, climate, sea level, and population growth between 1985 and 2001, respectively.

Financial support: This study was partly funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Queensland Department of Health, and the Queensland University of Technology

Authors’ addresses: Wenbiao Hu and Shilu Tong, School of Public Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland 4059, Australia, Telephone: 61-7-3864-9745, Fax: 61-7-3864-3369, E-mail: s.tong{at}qut.edu.au. Neville Nicholls, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia. Mike Lindsay, Department of Health, Perth, Western Australia 6001, Australia. Pat Dale, Australian School of Environmental Studies, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland 4111, Australia. Anthony J. McMichael, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra 0200, Australia. John S. Mackenzie, Department of Microbiology and Parasitology, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.

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				W. HU, S. TONG, K. MENGERSEN, and B. OLDENBURG EXPLORATORY SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCIDENCE OF ROSS RIVER VIRUS IN BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA Am J Trop Med Hyg, May 1, 2007; 76(5): 814 - 819. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]