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Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 70(5), 2004, pp. 486-498
Copyright © 2004 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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A GLOBAL INDEX REPRESENTING THE STABILITY OF MALARIA TRANSMISSION

ANTHONY KISZEWSKI, ANDREW MELLINGER, ANDREW SPIELMAN, PIA MALANEY, SONIA EHRLICH SACHS, AND JEFFREY SACHS
Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts; Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts; The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York, New York

To relate stability of malaria transmission to biologic characteristics of vector mosquitoes throughout the world, we derived an index representing the contribution of regionally dominant vector mosquitoes to the force of transmission. This construct incorporated published estimates describing the proportion of blood meals taken from human hosts, daily survival of the vector, and duration of the transmission season and of extrinsic incubation. The result of the calculation was displayed globally on a 0.5° grid. We found that these biologic characteristics of diverse vector mosquitoes interact with climate to explain much of the regional variation in the intensity of transmission. Due to the superior capacity of many tropical mosquitoes as vectors of malaria, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, antimalaria interventions conducted in the tropics face greater challenges than were faced by formerly endemic nations in more temperate climes.

Received February 4, 2003. Accepted for publication October 6, 2003.

Acknowledgments: We are grateful for the assistance of Derek Willis for his diligence in discovering background material for this work.

Financial support: This work was supported in part by a grant from the World Health Organization.

Authors’ addresses: Anthony Kiszewski, Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, I-109, 665 Huntington Avenue, Boston MA 02115, Telephone: 617-432-4229, Fax: 617-432-1796, E-mail: akisz{at}hsph.harvard.edu. Andrew Mellinger and Pia Malaney, Center for International Development/Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 1 Eliot Street, Cambridge MA 02138, Telephone: 617-496-0113, E-mails: Andrew_Mellinger{at}ksg.harvard.edu and Pia_Malaney{at}ksg.harvard.edu. Andrew Spielman, Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, I-109, 665 Huntington Avenue, Boston MA 02115, Telephone: 617-432-2058, Fax: 617-432-1796, E-mail: aspielma{at}hsph.harvard.edu. Sonia Ehrlich Sachs and Jeffrey Sachs, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York, NY 10115.




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