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Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 70(4), 2004, pp. 373-382
Copyright © 2004 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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PARAMETERS OF LEISHMANIA BRAZILIENSIS TRANSMISSION BY INDOOR LUTZOMYIA OVALLESI IN VENEZUELA

JORGE E. RABINOVICH AND M. DORA FELICIANGELI
Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores, Nacional de La Plata, La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina; Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Carabobo, Maracay, Venezuela; Escuela de Malariología Dr. Arnoldo Gabaldón, Ministerio de Sanidad y Asistencia Social, Maracay, Venezuela

We developed a mathematical model of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) transmission predicting CL incidence based on field data of number of positive sand flies, new CL cases, and number of susceptible people. We estimated the following parameters: a CL incubation period of one month, the overall susceptibility ({Phi} = 0.793), the serologic force of infection ({lambda}m = 0.108 /person/year, SD = 0.014), the clinical force of infection ({lambda}l= 0.114/year), the proportion of infections that result in skin lesions ({alpha} = 1.056), and the instantaneous reversal rate of Montenegro skin test-positive (MST+) people to MST– ({rho}= 0.124/year, SD = 0.021). We also provide the first field estimate of the transmission efficiency ({varepsilon} = 0.0045, SD = 0.0009). The model predictions conform well with the observed new cases except for some small departures in the peaks and in some depressions (Dmax = 0.1494, P < 0.2). We discuss possible sources of error of our estimate of {varepsilon}, and compare our parameter estimates with those obtained in Peru.

Received September 25, 2003. Accepted for publication December 8, 2003.

Acknowledgments: We are grateful to Dr. Martín Torres for his involvement in many of the mathematical developments of this work, as well as for his active participation in many discussions. The authors wish to thank the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene for assistance with publication expenses.

Authors’ addresses: Jorge E. Rabinovich, Centro de Estudios Parasitoló gicos y de Vectores, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Calle 2 No. 584, 1900 La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina, Telephone: 54-221-423-3471, Fax: 54-221-423-2327, E-mail: rabinovi{at}netverk.com.ar. M. Dora Feliciangeli, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Centro de Investigaciones Biomédicas-Centro Nacional de Referencia de Flebó tomos de Venezuela, Universidad de Carabobo, Apartado 4873, Maracay, Venezuela, E-mail: mdora{at}telcel.net.ve

Reprint requests: Jorge E. Rabinovich, Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Calle 2 No. 584, 1900 La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina.






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Copyright © 2004 by the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.