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Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 26(3), 1977, pp. 505-516
Copyright © 1977 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Development and Verification of a Schistosomiasis Transmission Model*

Patricia L. Rosenfield, Richard A. Smith AND M. Gordon Wolman
Resources for the Future, 1755 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036, United States Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia 22092, and Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21218

Development of a model to predict the impact of water resource projects on transmission of schistosomiasis is described and verified with data from 54 villages in Khuzestan Province, Iran. Changes in disease prevalence following construction of an irrigation project are related to the linear extent of snail habitats and size of the infected human population. The model is used to compare the costs and effectiveness of alternative disease control measures. Results indicate that a combined controls program is most cost-effective but further work is needed to determine the optimal combination of controls.

Accepted for publication November 13, 1976.


* The major portion of this research was supported by a grant from the Agency for International Development, U.S. Department of State.







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Copyright © 1977 by the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.